Look

[wxcrazytwo]

How warm the GOM is




Seems like a warm line along its path.

[SouthernWx]

Yes, they are warm....warm enough to support a major hurricane IF other atmospheric parameters were optimum..

Here's another sst chart for the Gulf....a very detailed sea surface map...

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... mex.fc.gif

PW

[Droop12]

Good to see ya around Perry. I just got off work and was wondering if you have put out any of your personal thoughts tonight? Thanks

[gatorcane]

NO. This SSTs in the Gulf are below normal for this year...running predominantly in the lower 80s but cooler as you had north...not enough to support rapid intensification:

SST Analysis:


SST Anomalies:

[Wnghs2007]

NO. This SSTs in the Gulf are below normal for this year...running predominantly in the lower 80s but cooler as you had north...not enough to support rapid intensification:

Both those images show 2 just slightly below normal areas in the NE and NW Gulf but and area of moderatle above normal in the central gulf where the storm is heading.

[LSU2001]

Boca,
You may need to check some bouy data IMHO. I found a bouy in the South Timbalier block that showed 85.1 F water. That certainly seems warm enough to support intensification if the upper dynamics allow. The gulf as a whole may be slightly below normal but off the coast of La. The water is quite warm.
TIm

Ps. not a flame or a bash just a simple statement.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Looks average to slightly above average......on average.

[gatorcane]

good point...I should check the buoy data out there...I imagine the SSTs S. of Lousiana are superficial. That is, with a little upwelling the SSTs are back into the 70s....the warmer water is a fairly thin layer at the surface....just a few weeks ago they were in the 70s...

[Pebbles]

Um.. the waters where the storm is currently sitting is above normal

Christine
I smile because i have no idea what's going on!
2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!

[gatorcane]

Here is the real SST Analysis...the two images I previously posted are duplicates:

[SouthernWx]

NO. This SSTs in the Gulf are below normal for this year...running predominantly in the lower 80s but cooler as you had north...not enough to support rapid intensification:

Friend, I've researched hurricanes the past three decades....when I post something on this or any forum, you can bank on it. Go to Storm2k's search engine and check out my posts/ analysis from last season; my warning to hurricanedude about Charley's extremely dangerous potential three days before it did what I was afraid of....bomb into a monster just offshore SW Florida (and possibly produce 100-120 mph gusts inland as far as Orlando & Daytona Beach).

I'm not currently listed among the "privileged" posters in the special new Storm2K forecasting forum, which is honestly surprising to me in light of my forecast excellence last season. Perhaps it's because I'm unable to post forecasts every six hours as Derek and other do; unfortunately, when you provide care for two feeble 90+ year old relatives (one terminally ill and blind), their needs come first....before anything else.

To you and droop (hi there!! here's my latest forecast analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61 (click on tropical weather)

Not attempting to be egotistical Chris, but I know my business when it comes to weather....know it extremely well

Have a wonderful day tomorrow,
Perry

[LSU2001]

Boca, You may be right about the overall heat content as the reading is only one meter deep (I think) however, if the storm is moving quickly there won't be time for the mixed water to have a great effect before landfall. I think what people are saying is that there is a warm tongue of water from about the mouth of the Miss outward and the storm should ride this area of relatively warmer water all the way in.
TIm

[Droop12]

I respect your thoughts Perry, What you are predicting is actually fairly ominous considering others including the NHC are upping there intensity forecast. We'll see though. Great Job.

[SouthernWx]

I respect your thoughts Perry, What you are predicting is actually fairly ominous considering others including the NHC are upping there intensity forecast. We'll see though. Great Job.

Thanks Droop....I'm not forecasting a major hurricane; IMO it's an extremely unlikely scenario.....but not totally out of the question.

Perry