I am starting to doubt a Cuba strike...

[StormChasr]

If Arlene misses Cuba, does that mean that she will have a chance at becoming a hurricane as a result of not making landfall, and no interventional land friction?

[Anonymous]

I think we have a few problems...

When it gets in the Gulf, it will have warm water, anticyclone, and trough creating the unfavorable conditions should decease.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

*sigh

There are equal chances of Arlene becoming a hurricane whether she strikes Cuba or not.

Those chances are fairly low (~25%)..its possible but not probable.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Floydbuster your forecast looks right on. I think she is starting to feel the ridge and we should see that overnight. Some person thinks I want it to hit SE LA but I don't as it is about to storm for the 4th day in a row as I type with another round of heavy rains add a tropical storm for 12-24 hours in the mix and we could have serious problems (as flooding). As the ridge continues to build in over the Atlantic the models will shift a little further the west as time goes on.

[Steve]

You might not want it to hit LA, but I sure do. Neverthless, I never EVER use my desire to get blasted by the tropics in anything I post. If anything, I usually go out of my way to discount any shot at my getting hit. But I know where that poster is coming from. -removed- (along with paranoia) is epidemic. There have been more than 100 examples today alone (on Storm2k and other sites) where justifications were at best questionable and one could simply guess where so-and-so poster resides based on his or her discounting of model-x or forecast-y. So you gotta expect that the annoyance factor will sometimes fall on the innocent too. I'm sure he didn't mean any harm by that.

Steve

[LaBreeze]

This is not "wish-casting" in any sense - I just feel for our neighbors in Florida. They certainly don't need any more problems as they are still recovering from last year. If we could, we would take on Arlene here in SW Louisiana for the sake of Florida.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No Steve I really don't want it to come here. I was planning on going to do some marsh fishing for reds down south this weekend and play on the 4 wheelers. I had big plans What do you see happening with this storm tomorrow? Relocate center, get sheared apart, move east? Thanks.

[Javlin]

I guess all the models are wrong;last look all the models ex. the CMC have come togther within about a 60-70 mile area for landfall.The CMC even 36hrs ago had the great Atlantic Wall breaking down pulling Arlene N of Tampa now its Pensacola area.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I think I will go with the models for the time being esp.with such consenus among them.If there where a 40-50% outlier among them then I would think otherwise.

[LSU2001]

Looking at the models with a clearly untrained eye It looks like all of the models except UKMET and CMC show the low between southeast La and South MS. CMC and UKMET are the easternmost models I think but I could be very very wrong.
TIm

[Steve]

>>No Steve I really don't want it to come here. I was planning on going to do some marsh fishing for reds down south this weekend and play on the 4 wheelers. I had big plans What do you see happening with this storm tomorrow? Relocate center, get sheared apart, move east? Thanks.

I'm going down (hopefully) with my bayou brother-in-law next Saturday to go red fishing off the Highway 1 near Golden Meadow. I think Arlene will pretty much be status quo (= fairly weak system) tomorrow, but by later in the day, we'll know whether or not the conditions actually did become a bit more favorable or not. In any event, it's probably going to be pretty breezy down the bayou even if the storm were to go in as far east as say Escambia, Santa Rosa (or possibly even Walton) Counties. You know how it is once you get way down there and there's a system in the vicinity.

Steve

[LSU2001]

Steve If you are going to fish off of LA 1 for reds I would advise that you go a little further south around Leeville. I fished there last week in some of the smaller bayous and ponds and caught 3 limits mine, my buddies and my son's in about 4 hours. with dead shrimp under a popping cork. But I may hold off on the plans cause I think that this storm may track closer to La. than is being shown now.
TIm

[Steve]

That's kind of around where we go (between GM and Leesville). My brother in law shrimps down there so they have leases to the bayous and are allowed to also fish there. We always tear up the reds and black drums.

Steve

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Steve and LSU2001 where exactly do you go to fish down there. Off the sides of the hwy or launches like Bobby Lynn's? That is where I was thinking of launching then taking the Southwestern LA Canal to the little bayous and ponds deep in the marsh.

[Javlin]

Well Mike is this how you pictured it missing Cuba you got it right.I think tomorrow afternoon and night we might see some intensification start to happen.The lack of land interference and friction.

[LSU2001]

MIKE:
I usually fish around Lake Jesse and off of the Southwestern Canal in the ponds at high tide. However, this time of year reds are everywhere and easy to find. Specks on the other hand can be a chore. Right now little lake and Timbalier bay should be good around the islands if the water is clear (NO WEST WIND AND INCOMING TIDE) I would be happy to detail more with GPS way points if you PM me.
TIm

[Foladar]

Well Mike is this how you pictured it missing Cuba you got it right.I think tomorrow afternoon and night we might see some intensification start to happen.The lack of land interference and friction.

I'm sure Cuba is getting enough rain, I wouldn't really say it "missed" cuba

[Javlin]

Center of circulation