0Z GFS...Weaking Trend (in model) Continues

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MWatkins
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0Z GFS...Weaking Trend (in model) Continues

#1 Postby MWatkins » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:33 pm

The 0Z GFS is much weaker with Arlene. It does a pretty good job...I think...in resolving the multiple vorticies embedded in the larger circulation...and does not have much of a reflection into the 850MB layer other than a weak vorticity signature in the next 48 hours.

Just looking at the 0Z NOGAPS it is a bit faster than the GFS...the resolution isn't as good but it looks like it wants to take the system a bit further west.

Goint to be interesting to see what the system looks like in the morning.

MW
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#2 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:42 pm

Yes it did look pathetic on the last couple of GFS runs.Ii briefly looked at the NOGAPS earlier, no weakening trend there. The CMC holds it about the same but appears to be further west also. Regardless we are going to get a lot of rain here along the Central Gulf Coast.
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:44 pm

Thats a nice trend alright.. Looking at the IR2 it seems like the low levels are less disorganized and not as elongated.. Maybe we will get a single displaced center to focus on. The morning discussion should be interesting..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Paul
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:48 pm

To me the dominating center is located near 21.0 North, and 85.0 West. This is strictly my opinion though.
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#5 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:54 pm

To me, using GRLevel3 Radar in BR248 out of Key West, that last couple of frames it looks like the center is just crossing the western tip of Cuba just to the NW of the Isle of Youth. :?: :?: :?:
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#6 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:55 pm

well one thing is for sure . Recon is on its way in and we will find out then. :wink:
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#7 Postby TS Zack » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:56 pm

Canadian is out. Shows a more MS/Al Border landfall or Mobile Bay.

It has trended West also. Still don't see the reasoning why it stalls the system and then turns 90degrees.
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Link!

#8 Postby bevgo » Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:04 am

Please post a link to the Canadian.
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Re: Link!

#9 Postby Aquawind » Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:07 am

bevgo wrote:Please post a link to the Canadian.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Paul
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Re: Link!

#10 Postby TS Zack » Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:08 am

Thanks Paul!

Light-up Arlene! Yea Baby! LOL
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#11 Postby Javlin » Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:26 am

I have not quite bit into that weaking trend yet Mike.I thought the GFS was not that great on intensity but good for direction of mid lat systems.So I wait to see if the GOM offers anything for development.
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