Arlene looking better organizated!

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HURAKAN
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Arlene looking better organizated!

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:14 am

Image

LOOP: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's really visible in the loop where you can compare Arlene hours ago and Arlene now. Convection has increased on the northern side as well as a band on its eastern side that extends to Central America. If shear relaxes in the Gulf of Mexico we could have a potent tropical storm making landfall in the next 36 hours.
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#2 Postby mobilebay » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:22 am

Whats going on with recon though. Their last report wat at 0318 CDT. Are they over Cuban air space or something. they was only at OB11.
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#3 Postby Agua » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:22 am

Hmmm... Doesn't really look any more organized, but definitely a pop in TStorms. That's just me, though.
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#4 Postby Ixolib » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:24 am

Looks like the D.T.'s are in for some pretty squally stuff pretty soon. And, what's with that "blob"coming off the coast of Honduras??
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:26 am

Ixolib wrote:Looks like the D.T.'s are in for some pretty squally stuff pretty soon. And, what's with that "blob"coming off the coast of Honduras??


If you see the image or the loop, it's related to the band of convection east of Arlene that extend southward.
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#6 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:29 am

The center appears to be well west of that convective burst, though. Probably near the western tip of Cuba. Still a lot of shear.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:36 am

That why I said, "looks better organizated," because with the increase of convection the system has a better image presentation, but since we know the center is way away from the convection, nothing impressive has really happened.
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#8 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:00 am

Looking at the shortwave IR...you can see that the lower level circulation is in better shape. It has a little lower pressure yesterday in an environment with a little higher pressure. Pressure gradient kicking up some. It also looks like it is moving more north...and picking up some speed. I would not be surprised if the LLC gets under or next to the convection this morning sometime. Still some southerly shear....but if it picks up some foreward speed, that will help it combat the shear a little.
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#9 Postby Aquawind » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:44 am

Air Force Met wrote:Looking at the shortwave IR...you can see that the lower level circulation is in better shape. It has a little lower pressure yesterday in an environment with a little higher pressure. Pressure gradient kicking up some. It also looks like it is moving more north...and picking up some speed. I would not be surprised if the LLC gets under or next to the convection this morning sometime. Still some southerly shear....but if it picks up some foreward speed, that will help it combat the shear a little.


I hear that.. It was fairly obvious the lower levels were getting better organized last night. That dry air is so evident watching the clouds and convection simply poof when it tries to wrap west or SW or the 85W line.. If the shear weakens and convection pops over the LLC it will strengthen..

Paul
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