12:00 Models=SHIP and DSHP maximun winds 64kts in 24 hours

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE (AL012005) ON 20050610 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050610 1200 050611 0000 050611 1200 050612 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 84.8W 25.4N 84.7W 28.1N 84.5W 30.8N 84.5W
BAMM 22.7N 84.8W 25.3N 84.8W 27.9N 84.6W 30.6N 84.6W
A98E 22.7N 84.8W 25.0N 84.6W 27.1N 84.6W 28.9N 84.7W
LBAR 22.7N 84.8W 25.1N 85.2W 27.5N 85.5W 29.7N 85.9W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 64KTS 64KTS
DSHP 50KTS 59KTS 64KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050612 1200 050613 1200 050614 1200 050615 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.4N 84.6W 38.0N 81.6W 39.1N 74.5W 37.2N 65.2W
BAMM 33.0N 84.7W 36.9N 82.6W 37.9N 78.0W 36.2N 72.8W
A98E 30.7N 85.0W 33.8N 85.1W 35.9N 82.8W 35.0N 75.4W
LBAR 31.6N 86.1W 34.6N 85.9W 36.8N 83.7W 36.7N 78.8W
SHIP 59KTS 42KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 29KTS 30KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.7N LONCUR = 84.8W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 84.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 84.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Ship and DSHP almost have a hurricane in their intensity forecast.It will be a very close call.

[HURAKAN]

[b]It will be a very close call.

I think I heard that before, oh, the 2004 presidential election.

[Aquawind]

Looks like were going to have a serious wind system here as well.. lets hope it does pick up speed and boogie outta here..

Paul

[caneman]

I once again ask a Met. Why, when this will be about 100 miles off the West coast of Florida are there no warnings or watches?

[cycloneye]

[Rainband]

Aren't those the old runs luis?? From 2am

[Wnghs2007]

Also interesting is that the farthest any of the ship models takes it west is 86.1 W


The ships models have moved east you can say that.

[Brent]

Only the GFDL is new on Luis' map.

[Wnghs2007]

Only the GFDL is new on Luis' map.

Yeah I think he posted it waiting for them to reload the map and update it with the new Model tracks on there.

[HoumaLa]

look at this its kinda cool
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh4.gif

[LilNoles2005]

I noticed that the plots didn't match up with Luis' map... I would have posted something, but I didn't want to feel like an idiot if I was wrong.

[Brent]

They are updated now...

Farther east. I knew it. NHC is too far west.

[Ixolib]

look at this its kinda cool
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh4.gif

Looks like Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores will get the largest tidal increase...

[dixiebreeze]

I once again ask a Met. Why, when this will be about 100 miles off the West coast of Florida are there no warnings or watches?

I'd say that's a fair question, considering how Charley fooled the experts last season.

[LilNoles2005]

I'd think they'd put up at the very least a watch for the West coast of FL because, even though a landfall there is out of the question, Arlene may come close enough to provide TS force winds... Sorry for not paying attention, but how far out do TS winds extend?

[HURAKAN]

I'd think they'd put up at the very least a watch for the West coast of FL because, even though a landfall there is out of the question, Arlene may come close enough to provide TS force winds... Sorry for not paying attention, but how far out do TS winds extend?

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
...220 km to the northeast of the center.

[caneman]

It appears we Tampa (Pinellas County) at this point will be within 140 miles

[Stormcenter]

I'd think they'd put up at the very least a watch for the West coast of FL because, even though a landfall there is out of the question, Arlene may come close enough to provide TS force winds... Sorry for not paying attention, but how far out do TS winds extend?

I don't think she even coming close to the west coast of Florida to warrant TS watches. Arlene has eyes for the MS/AL coastline.

[LilNoles2005]

Stormcenter, why not? If the West coast of FL is close enough to experience TS conditions, shouldn't a TS Watch/Warning be issued? Doesn't mean that the storm is going to hit there, just means that TS conditions are expected.

[caneman]

Sure looks like it could pass withing 140 miles. That would be good enough