12:00 Models=SHIP and DSHP maximun winds 64kts in 24 hours

[Rainband]

Stormcenter, why not? If the West coast of FL is close enough to experience TS conditions, shouldn't a TS Watch/Warning be issued? Doesn't mean that the storm is going to hit there, just means that TS conditions are expected.

No it means they are possible. The only way they will issue a watch is if they think that. Hope that helps.

[Brent]

Even the right side of the NHC track would be over 150 miles offshore... center is closer to 200. That is why they aren't issuing a watch or warning. This is not Charley. It's not moving at an odd angle towards a north-south coastline.

[melhow]

Sure looks like it could pass withing 140 miles. That would be good enough

I think it's a weird vibe here in Pinellas this morning. Pretty much all of my office has the radar pulled up and minimized on their computers. We have all watched the warnings and forecasts, and the dreaded "cone", and it's been made really clear by the local mets and NHC that this storm is not headed our way, but still, I think that a bunch of us are sitting around and scratching our heads looking at the screen and going "but, huh, it looks AWFULLY close, and it sure LOOKS like we are going to feel more than 21 mph winds and occasional storms".

Anyone else in my area feel that way?

[Rainband]

Not at this point but if the 11am changes then I may get interested.

[Thunder44]

Since the models initalized at 50kts winds, does that mean Arlene will be 55mph or 60mph in the 11am advisory?

[Brent]

Since the models initalized at 50kts winds, does that mean Arlene will be 55mph or 60mph in the 11am advisory?

It won't be 55 mph since 55 mph gets you a weird knots number(somewhere between 45 and 50). 50 kts is 60 mph I think... or it will round up.

[HURAKAN]

NRL says 50 knots or 60 mph.

[Mattie]

I asked this question all last year and had to look it up every time. Now I have it readily available - - -

45 KT = 50 MPH, 50 KT = 60 MPH
80 KT = 90 MPH, 85 KT = 100 MPH
110 KT = 125 MPH, 115 KT = 135 MPH*
145 KT = 165 MPH, 150 KT = 175 MPH

The formula is something like 1 mph = 1.20 or close - I just use the chart - a couple of mph one way or the other will probably go unnoticed

[Brent]

This is what DoctorHurricane said last night... that you'll never see 55 mph as sustained winds on the big packages(5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm)

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ht=#897201

[LilNoles2005]

multiply knots x 1.15 to get mph...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

In Pinellas county, St. Pete airport, we had 21 knots sustained winds when I woke up. Maybe this is due to the gradient, maybe the influence of Arlene, but regardless, as she moves up the gulf we can expect at least gusts to Tropical Storm Force - at least on the coast! I too am suprised that they haven't issued at least a watch since we should be expecting tropical storm force winds at some point tonight or tomorrow when bands go through. Aren't the highest winds in the band to the northeast currently?
-and if the center relocates under the convection, we just may be within the 140 miles of the center.

[Thunder44]

Thanks, I just was not clear as I don't believe there is a "knot estimate" used for 55mph by the NHC.

[MSRobi911]

look at this its kinda cool
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh4.gif

What is this from? What storm?

thanks,

Mary

Never mind I finally saw the tiny date...that was Georges and my house was flooded!

[Brent]

Thanks, I just was not clear as I don't believe there is a "knot estimate" used for 55mph by the NHC.

On the Marine Advisory and in the discussion it is used. On the intermediates, those aren't issued, so it's not a problem.

[cycloneye]

They are updated now...

Farther east. I knew it. NHC is too far west.

I know that those grafics update themselves after 9:30 AM that is why I posted the old run.

[yoda]

They are updated now...

Farther east. I knew it. NHC is too far west.

I know that those grafics update themselves after 9:30 AM that is why I posted the old run.

Not exactly. Only the BAMM and BAMD are really. The A98E always has weird tracks anyway (but it could be right for once... who knows? )

Arent't the BAMM and BAMD based off the GFS?