UNOFFICAL - My analysis of Arlene

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's my analysis on what will happen with Arlene:

The Upper Level Low is weakening and moving South, allowing more humid air in the Northern and Eastern GOM, as evidenced in WV images.

A more favorable environment - less shear and less dry air - is moving into place over the Northern GOM

The Ridge over the Southeast US and the ULL is forming a pretty good gradient between the two, and Arlene will shoot right between the two.

The more favorable environment, speed of the storm, and warm surface SST's will give Arlene a chance to make minimal hurricane strength at landfall overnight Saturday/early Sunday. Right now, I feel that the center of the storm will pass between the Mouth of the Mississippi and
Pensacola, with most of the weather east of Gulfport, Mississippi.


Please feel free to comment, question or correct - I know the pro mets are watching.


David


<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/images/arlene01.jpg">

[HalloweenGale]

ARLENE looks Extratropical

[AL Chili Pepper]

I've heard that the system may come into a better environment for a while before reaching the coast, but then encounter SWesterly shear as it reaches the coast.