Landfall predictions thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
GalvestonDuck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15941
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)

Landfall predictions thread

#1 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:03 am

The following posts are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinions of the posters and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Anyone (including amateurs like me) want to make a forecast for landfall location and/or intensity?

Based on little more than gut instinct, what I've seen on the projection maps, and my thinking on how the Bermuda high will affect it, I think TS Arlene will make landfall in the Gulf Shores/Gulf State Park/Romar Beach area of Alabama (between Oyster Bay and Wolf Bay).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1584
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Cancun, Mexico (northeast Yucatan coast)

Sticking with what I said yesterday morning...

#2 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:05 am

Within 20 miles of Fort Walton Beach at 55knots with gusts to 70 knots
0 likes   
Top
Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#3 Postby Droop12 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:06 am

I'll take a swing at it and say Gulf Shores or Dauphin Island near Mobile Bay also. Is that ok if we agree or does it have to be all different locations? 8-)
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#4 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:06 am

Somewhere near where Ivan hit... between Fort Morgan and Gulf Shores. Almost all of the strong winds will be over the Panhandle. I'm going with a 65-70 mph tropical storm, although I won't rule out a hurricane.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#5 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:08 am

It's no fun when you're 36-48 hours out. Check out Wednesday's thread before there was even any classification. I still like my call ;).

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

Steve
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Pebbles
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1994
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)

#6 Postby Pebbles » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:14 am

I'm going to say I think she may go west of the Alabama state line between Gulfport and Pascagoula.

Christine
:) I smile because i have no idea what's going on! :)
2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#7 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:14 am

I say Grand Bay, Alabama then curve into Mobile.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#8 Postby LAwxrgal » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:17 am

I'm with Brent, I'm thinking Ivan territory (MS, AL, FL panhandle) too unfortunately :( and have thought this way for 3 days.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#9 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:18 am

FT Walton Beach/Destin - that was my original prediction, I'll stick with it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#10 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:19 am

I think between the Mouth of the Mississippi and Pensacola - probably
somewhere around Gulfport to Mobile.
0 likes   
Top
GalvestonDuck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15941
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)

#11 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:24 am

Droop -- it's okay! Maybe we're both right. :wink:

Steve -- sorry, couldn't find it and wondered why no one had started one yet. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jdray
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: NE Florida

#12 Postby jdray » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:26 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

I had already called a Panama City-Apalachicola with 60mph winds.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Fla Panhandle
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 6:41 am

#13 Postby Fla Panhandle » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:27 am

I say between Mobile/Pensacola.
0 likes   
Top
yzerfan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 588
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:09 pm
Location: Niceville, FL

#14 Postby yzerfan » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:01 am

Since no one else has yet, I'll take Gulf Breeze-Navarre, FL. North Gulf storms always seem to wide right a little bit more than people first expect.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trader Ron
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
Location: Naples,Fl
Contact:
Contact Trader Ron

#15 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:03 am

I said between Ocean Springs and Gulfport on Monday . Also said a minimal TS..oh well.. :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#16 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:06 am

I'll go for the center of the Alabama coast.
0 likes   
Top
SouthernWx

#17 Postby SouthernWx » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:06 am

The same area I posted two days ago....between Bay St Louis, MS and Orange Beach, AL....highest strike probability being Pascagoula, Mississippi.

PW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#18 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:07 am

SouthernWx wrote:The same area I posted two days ago....between Bay St Louis, MS and Orange Beach, AL....highest strike probability being Pascagoula, Mississippi.

PW


Perry, I think you are dead on.
0 likes   
Top
slowjoe
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:25 pm
Location: Gainesville, FL

Apalachicola

#19 Postby slowjoe » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:10 am

I'm going out on a limb...but I haven't agreed with this western trend since day one.

Apalachicola gets hit with a Cat1.
0 likes   
Top
CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

#20 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:11 am

I am still sticking with Gulfport/Biloxi. I did read a post about the ATL. High not being as strong as forecast. Anyone care to elaborate on this?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 498 guests