Center Relocating

[Derek Ortt]

the eastern center looks to be the dominant one now

[Rainband]

the eastern center looks to be the dominant one now

[PTrackerLA]

I just don't see how there's another LLC under the blob of convection. You can clearly see the once again exposed center of circulation and it appears to be drifiting WSW just like we saw yesterday. I don't think Arlene is anywhere close to becoming stronger ATTM.

[x-y-no]

Definitely looking better and better as this morning progresses. Finally getting convection to start wrapping around the new center as dry air intrusion relaxes.

[melhow]

the eastern center looks to be the dominant one now

So, Rain, are you thinking that this might constitute a situation for our area?

[dwg71]

See 11:00AM advisory, it has it relocated to 24.00 84.90.

[Wnghs2007]

I just don't see how there's another LLC under the blob of convection. You can clearly see the once again exposed center of circulation and it appears to be drifiting WSW just like we saw yesterday. I don't think Arlene is anywhere close to becoming stronger ATTM.

Thats a free vort it spit out...There is another one under the convection and clearly visable on Key West Radar. The one you see exposed is no longer the dominating one. The One in the Convection Obviously is.

[Rainband]

the eastern center looks to be the dominant one now

So, Rain, are you thinking that this might constitute a situation for our area?

dunno time will tell. I trust The NHC

[x-y-no]

I just don't see how there's another LLC under the blob of convection. You can clearly see the once again exposed center of circulation and it appears to be drifiting WSW just like we saw yesterday. I don't think Arlene is anywhere close to becoming stronger ATTM.

There's definitely two circulation centers. The one you're talking about, and one right at the edge of the convection wit some convection starting to wrap arount the north side.

This second center is visible on the Key West long-range radar.

Jan

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Also look to the NW of the storm. Clouds are really starting to wrap and the western side is becoming a little more symtrical. Anyone know if the conditions that are helping Arlene organize a little better this morning supposed to last through landfall.

[Air Force Met]

There's definitely two circulation centers. The one you're talking about, and one right at the edge of the convection wit some convection starting to wrap arount the north side.

This second center is visible on the Key West long-range radar.

Jan

There's only one small problem with that assessment, the long range radar is seeing the mid and upper level circulation. Even on the short range radar...the elevation is over 16,000' at the edge. So...on the long range radar...you are seeing the precip at well over 20,000'. So...that is the mid level circulation...not the sfc center. The mid and upper level circulation are stacked...and a little removed from the sfc circulation.

[slowjoe]

Also look to the NW of the storm. Clouds are really starting to wrap and the western side is becoming a little more symtrical. Anyone know if the conditions that are helping Arlene organize a little better this morning supposed to last through landfall.

Just a guess but...Arlene appears to be fighting off the dry air mass. The dry air is not streaming into the gulf like it was the last couple of days. There is still some dryness close to the center but it's moment has stalled.

[x-y-no]

There's definitely two circulation centers. The one you're talking about, and one right at the edge of the convection wit some convection starting to wrap arount the north side.

This second center is visible on the Key West long-range radar.

Jan

There's only one small problem with that assessment, the long range radar is seeing the mid and upper level circulation. Even on the short range radar...the elevation is over 16,000' at the edge. So...on the long range radar...you are seeing the precip at well over 20,000'. So...that is the mid level circulation...not the sfc center. The mid and upper level circulation are stacked...and a little removed from the sfc circulation.

Good point, AFM. Thanks for that correction.

Jan

[Steve]

>>There's only one small problem with that assessment, the long range radar is seeing the mid and upper level circulation.

Wonderful point Air Force (you military guys aren't all that bad afterall ). I think that's a point that often gets lost in the weaker systems. Same thing goes for tracking based on the IR. When some last night had it going due west, I mentioned that you really don't know what you have when you're just sensing heat. Anyway, there appears to be still an oribtal relationship between the LLC out to the west of the main convection (now starting to fire up a little as well) and the bulk of the weather to the east.

Ultimately, I think this is the type of scenario where you really don't focus on landfall but the weather itself.

Steve

[dhweather]

Is it just me mis-interpreting the VIS, or has she taken a bit of a westerly here lately (last few frames)

I'm not wobble watching, and its probably just a mix of the sun coming into the picture plus convection beginning to wrap around, but thats what I see


is it just lack of sleep?

cheers
loon

Loon - it's a combination of things - the convection is starting to wrap around, the western side of the storm is "growing" (shear is less and less)
and maybe a little wobble to the NW.

[Air Force Met]

>>There's only one small problem with that assessment, the long range radar is seeing the mid and upper level circulation.

Wonderful point Air Force (you military guys aren't all that bad afterall ). I think that's a point that often gets lost in the weaker systems. Same thing goes for tracking based on the IR. When some last night had it going due west, I mentioned that you really don't know what you have when you're just sensing heat. Anyway, there appears to be still an oribtal relationship between the LLC out to the west of the main convection (now starting to fire up a little as well) and the bulk of the weather to the east.

Ultimately, I think this is the type of scenario where you really don't focus on landfall but the weather itself.

Steve

Thanks for the approval.

And yes, the focus needs to be east of the landfalling location. As it stands right now (if I was chasing it), I would not be aiming for the landfall spot. 's a lop-sided system.

[LSU2001]

Cyclone Mike Wrote:

PTrackerLA, I was just looking at that same thing. Also looking out at the sky at work here in BR there is a definite west to east movement of the clouds. I don't know exactly what that could mean, if anything, just caught my attention. As yesterday I still say Gulfport/Biloxi.

I don't know about the west to east flow Mike I am in Denham Springs and I have been watching a Southeast to Northwest flow all morning. with about a 5-10 kt. Southeast Wind
Just my take,
TIm[/b]

[Stormcenter]

It still seems to me that this system is moving predominately to the north, i'm looking at a Western Panhandle Landfall, as well as heavy rains up and down the Florida Gulf Coast, as well as inland, I actually agree on this relocation idea as well, looks as if it has done that.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

Well it all depends on what you are looking at. It looks NNW to me and getting organized by the hour. I would not be surprise if we have an 80 mph hurricane making landfall somewhere along the Northern GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[soonertwister]

I just spent several minutes observing a 24 image zoomed-in visible loop of the area near the center, and it appears to me that there were two distinct circulations, and the one perhaps 90 miles SSW of the more northern one dissipated as the more northern one gained strength.

It wouldn't surprise me if there were even more vortices with this system.

Very impressive animation, however. The last image has the circulation right near 85 just south of 25. That would be a jump from the 11 am fix of about a degree north.

Also, it appears to me that this storm may be getting stronger, just from visual observation.

[HURAKAN]

The center or centers are visible in this clear image.