Outflow

[rolltide]

It's appears to me that the outflow is is begining to increase on the west side of Arlene. If you look at the few high cloulds on the northwest side you can see the outflow streaming west. Could be a sign of decreased shear. JMO

[dwg71]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the water vapor loop, you can see the influx of dry air coming in from the SW. I dont see any real west convection for another 24 hours or so. That brown air is really dry...

[rolltide]

I agree that there is still no outflow due west or southwest but I was looking nothwest of the center. If you look at the last few frames you can see the outflow heading west and building.

[LSU2001]

Remember Derek Ortt?

He's the meteorologist from South Miami who was dead on in his predictions of Ivan. He says Arlene will intensify to hurricane strength and possibly hit around Mobile.

Ortt says: "Satellite imagery indicates that the outflow is becoming much better defined ... and the convection is circular. The dry air is starting to modify and shear is reducing. Arlene will be passing over a warm water eddy. All of the above indicates further intensification before landfall. It is quite possible that Arlene will make landfall as a category 1 hurricane and future forecasts may be revised to reflect this."

"The eastern center that was used for the forecast last night did not become dominant; thus, that forecast is too far to the right. In addition, the forecast was too slow. I have shifted to the left significantly. I did not want to make too dramatic of a change from the previous forecast."

If it becomes apparent that this forecast of a landfall near Mobile is still too far right, he will revise his forecast. We will keep you posted.

Ortt's predictions and analysis were on target for all four Florida hurricanes last year. While most weather sources were predicting Hurricane Ivan would hit west of Mobile, Ortt e-mailed the News Journal and said the storm was hooking toward Pensacola.

The bottom line: Tropical Storm Arlene is gaining momentum faster than expected. The News Journal will provide updates every 30 minutes or as soon as we learn new information.

Source:http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/st/arlene/061005_hammer.shtml

[rolltide]

I remember Derek Ortt very well. I sent him a thank you last year after Ivan. While no one is prefect at predicting these things I rely on Derek as much or more than anyone. (NHC included) Derek Ortt is the man