Eastward forecast shift at 5pm?

miamistorm · #1 Postby **miamistorm** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:54 pm

Do you think the NHC will respect the tightly clusterred 18Z model suite and move the track further east for a Florida Landfall at 5pm? The forecast has already been completed....we shall see.

dwg71 · #2 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:57 pm

Tampa radar shows a well defined circulation center, (under the convection) and shows a 355-360 heading. I would say yes. It will shift to the right..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktbw.shtml

southerngale · #3 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:00 pm

I just read another thread where they were saying it was moving more westerly.

#4 Postby **feederband** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:02 pm

I can't tell where the center is. I just see swills all over the place...Maybe at the end of the year we should have best and worst looking storm award. This one might win the worst.....UGLY ARLEAN.... 8-)

#5 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:02 pm

miamistorm wrote:Do you think the NHC will respect the tightly clusterred 18Z model suite and move the track further east for a Florida Landfall at 5pm? The forecast has already been completed....we shall see.

Check out the satellite link below. It will be very tough for her to make landfall in Florida if she is moving NNW. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

hurricanedude · #6 Postby **hurricanedude** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:02 pm

If the center is ......and Im not so sure really where it is :roll:

but if it is in the center of the CDO...then yes, I would have to say a definate FL strike, if the NW turn dont happen...maybe even the central panhandle, it seems to me it would almost have to turn wnw to threaten MS and LA....so I will go with FL panhandle

#7 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:03 pm

feederband wrote:I can't tell where the center is. I just see swills all over the place...Maybe at the end of the year we should have best and worst looking storm award. This one might win the worst.....UGLY ARLEAN....

She may be ugly now but the she may not be when she make landfall somewhere along the MS/AL line.

hurricanedude · #8 Postby **hurricanedude** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:04 pm

the thing is virtually due north...the convection that apperars heading NW is the NW prtion of the circulation, if you look closely, its wrapping around, the center is northbound for the moment at least

dwg71 · #9 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:05 pm

Ortt moved his 3:45 special forecast to the right.

Fla Panhandle · #10 Postby **Fla Panhandle** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:10 pm

Yikes, i'm here in Ft >walton Beach, Fla.

dwg71 · #11 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:11 pm

IMO its coming straight for you. give or take 50 ft.

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:11 pm

Track will be shifted a little to the east at 5pm... intensity remains the same(at least for now).

Fla Panhandle · #13 Postby **Fla Panhandle** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:12 pm

I apologize, i typed that wrong , i meant Ft. Walton Beach.

#14 Postby **loon** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:19 pm

She is winning the war with things on her west side. We are now getting pop up thunderstorms in the extreme eastern Houston area come directly from her influence. I wouldn't doubt seeing westerly movement added soon or overnight as the ridge isn't really backing down over the atlantic....she's going to be fun to watch all the way into.....

StormChasr · #15 Postby **StormChasr** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:21 pm

Landfall around Biloxi would be my call......anywhere from Pensacola to New Orleans is possible.

dwg71 · #16 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:27 pm

loon wrote:She is winning the war with things on her west side. We are now getting pop up thunderstorms in the extreme eastern Houston area come directly from her influence. I wouldn't doubt seeing westerly movement added soon or overnight as the ridge isn't really backing down over the atlantic....she's going to be fun to watch all the way into.....

There is a large dry air mass between Arlene and SE TX. The showers to our east are just normal afternoon heating seabreeze showers. They are not a "direct influence" of Arlene.

And if she is winning the war with the dry air mass to her west, why is all convection staying E of 85W.

#17 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:29 pm

[quote=" .

And if she is winning the war with the dry air mass to her west, why is all convection staying E of 85W.[/quote]

Good point. I also don't think she is winning the war "right now" but that could change.

#18 Postby **loon** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:33 pm

dwg71 wrote:
loon wrote:She is winning the war with things on her west side. We are now getting pop up thunderstorms in the extreme eastern Houston area come directly from her influence. I wouldn't doubt seeing westerly movement added soon or overnight as the ridge isn't really backing down over the atlantic....she's going to be fun to watch all the way into.....

There is a large dry air mass between Arlene and SE TX. The showers to our east are just normal afternoon heating seabreeze showers. They are not a "direct influence" of Arlene.

And if she is winning the war with the dry air mass to her west, why is all convection staying E of 85W.

Give it a few hours, then we shall see. I will eat crow if I must. As far as seabreeze, those travel south to north as they always do, these are coming from the east...I would call that a direct influence. But, again I will not argue, I'm just a lowly weather obsessive.....

#19 Postby **loon** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:36 pm

I suppose New Orleans rain is just seabreeze also?

dwg71 · #20 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:37 pm

I would agree but there are storms heading due East in SE LA. see below
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Eastward forecast shift at 5pm?

Eastward forecast shift at 5pm?

Re: Eastward forecast shift at 5pm?

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