5 PM=65 mph,997 mbs,Poorly defined center N at 17 mph

[cycloneye]

674
WTNT31 KNHC 102042
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...LARGE ARLENE DRENCHING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ST MARKS FLORIDA TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST
OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF
ARLENE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


$$



677
WTNT21 KNHC 102042
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
2100Z FRI JUN 10 2005

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ST MARKS FLORIDA TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 85.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 85.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.6N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 35.5N 87.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

[msbee]

she's getting close, isn't she?
I think I voted wrong on the other thread

[depotoo]

FIX TIME1957

(Z) TIME 1557
(edt) LAT 26.80
(deg) LON 83.00
(deg) Wind Dir. 130
(deg) FL WIND 52.9mph
(mph) Aircraft Alt 4987

[cycloneye]

Tropical storm watches and warnings as well the hurricane Watch haved been extended eastward.TS warning for New Orleans.

[Opal storm]

Moving N at 17mph?

Highly doubt a MS/AL landfall now,looks like a panhandle landfall,probably east of Pensacola.

[cycloneye]

Landfall for early saturday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Moving N at 17mph?

Highly doubt a MS/AL landfall now,looks like a panhandle landfall,probably east of Pensacola.

Slightly west of due north.

[feederband]

Is she really moving that fast , or is just center relocations?

[Thunder44]

Florida gets hit again. Who could of guessed that?

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 102059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

ARLENE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER
CORE. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF
SHEARED SYSTEMS. SHIP AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB...AND 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS RECENTLY PEAKED AT 69 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 55 KT. IN THE CURRENT MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ARLENE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE
INCREASED...AS ANTICIPATED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF
DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE
TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE
MUCH EARLIER.

SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 25.7N 85.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 30.4N 87.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.6N 87.9W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/1800Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Rainband]

Dennis phillips just said it is moving fast and all we will get is rain. No wind The good news is flooding should be limited because of it's foward speed

[PTrackerLA]

For now on when a storm enters the gulf I'm voting for a AL/FL landfall . Hopefully Arlene is as uneventful as I think she will be because those poor folks in the panhandle can't take anymore storms.

[Wpwxguy]

It aint there yet folks, we still got 24 hours. I hope it stays east of me, but I won't write her off just yet.

[Brent]

She's in a hurry... not going to LA.