Still looks like a Florida Panhandle landfall

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MGC
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Still looks like a Florida Panhandle landfall

#1 Postby MGC » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:49 pm

Arlene is still moving north this afternoon and not taken the westerly jog the NHC forecast. As I posted yesterday, I'm still expecting Arlene to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle. Arlene is tracking to the right of the NHC forecast track. The 24 hour tack error is a degree to the right. The large ridge over Old Mexico has not erroded nor has the Bermuda ridge built west to steer Arlene more westward. I still doubt Arlene reaches hurricane intensity. Arlene has done well considering the amount of dry air to her west. Had the dry air not been in place Arlene would likely have been a hurricane by now........MGC
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#2 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:50 pm

NHC has adjusted forcast to the right. Ft Walton Beach is still my call.
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#3 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:05 pm

I'm STILL sticking with MS/AL coastline. I'm hard headed. :lol:
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Opal storm

#4 Postby Opal storm » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:09 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I'm STILL sticking with MS/AL coastline. I'm hard headed. :lol:

Not going to happen.Not only is it still moving north but it's also picked up speed,it's going to hit a lot sooner than previously thought.Unless it all of the sudden takes a huge track to the NW/WNW tonight,the panhandle is getting this one.
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#5 Postby cyclonaut » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:15 pm

Florida Panhandle,that what I have though all along.
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#6 Postby StormChasr » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:19 pm

Gulf Shores......remember Ivan
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Opal storm

#7 Postby Opal storm » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:27 pm

I'm still not out ruling a AL/FL border landfall but not a mile west than that.I'm in Pensacola and it looks like a 50/50 chance for me, might see the weak side or I could get stuck right in the brunt of the storm if a AL/FL border landfall occurs.I'm just going to wait and see what happens.
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#8 Postby Rainband » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:50 pm

If the "turn" doesn't happen soon. I am going with the central panhandle :(
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#9 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:56 pm

Still going with my initial FL/AL line landfall or as far East as Navarre. Either way FWB area gets the bad stuff and my Mom is in Niceville. All you storm weary NW Floridian's batten down the hatches now. It is going to be very bumpy tomorrow!! Our prayers for safety and no damage go out to you!!!
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#10 Postby Stratusxpeye » Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:58 pm

This is a Fort Walton Beach/Destin Florida Destined hurricane (soon to be). Possibly as far west as Pensacola or as far east as Panama City. But im going with 100% in West Florida Panhandle. No doubt here.
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#11 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:03 pm

I gotta shift a little east...

Between Pensacola Beach and FWB.
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#12 Postby skysummit » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:04 pm

I'm going to say the Perido Key area.
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#13 Postby jabber » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:05 pm

This storm has Florida written all over it. If it does hit Florida, we would only need 4 more to break the record.... Thats a record I would rather not see in my lifetime.
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#14 Postby MGC » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:05 pm

With Arlene trucking north at 17mph, the chances of any significant deviation from that course is remote. Seems Arlene is imbedded in the weakness between the two ridges and is rushing to fill the gap.......MGC
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#15 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:16 pm

MGC wrote:With Arlene trucking north at 17mph, the chances of any significant deviation from that course is remote. Seems Arlene is imbedded in the weakness between the two ridges and is rushing to fill the gap.......MGC


Exactly! The only way she goes West of the FL/AL line is if the ridge starts building in very strongly now!
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#16 Postby alicia-w » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:40 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Still going with my initial FL/AL line landfall or as far East as Navarre. Either way FWB area gets the bad stuff and my Mom is in Niceville. All you storm weary NW Floridian's batten down the hatches now. It is going to be very bumpy tomorrow!! Our prayers for safety and no damage go out to you!!!


Is there anything I can do for Mom? I can send you my number if you want me to check up on her or something....
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