Arlene Forecast 3: Hurricane at landfall

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
720 PM FRI JUN 10TH 2005

Tropical Storm Arlene has undergone some strengthening today.. and despite still being very disorganized.. she is on the verge of being a hurricane.

Arlene's winds have increased to 65 mph and she now appears to be on a course for a landfall possibly in extreme western Florida. Arlene is in the warm gulf waters which may allow her to organize if shear relaxes. Based on satellites, it does appear that most of her thunderstorms are well away from the LLC.

Arlene's rains have been splashed across Florida like a kid splashing a paint can on a white wall. Even though her winds are not that strong across Florida.. the heavy rains may cause flooding problems along the West Coast or the inland peninsula.

Arlene may become a hurricane before landfall if she can become better organized. The projected path is still uncertain. But residents along a swath from New Orleans to as far east as Tallahassee may need to keep a watch on it.

Our forecast track has shifted again.. brining Arlene on shore somewhere near Pensacola Beach Florida.. as a Category 1 hurricane. The track shift is based on the NHC's continuing shifts and the fact she is moving rather slowly and maybe even erratic.

Here's the forecast on Arlene

Tonight: Nearing the Central Gulf. Max Winds: 70 mph
Saturday: Nearing the coast by afternoon. Max Winds: 80 mph
Sunday: Well Inland and extrap. Max winds: 35 mph

DISCLAIMER
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Josephine96]

bumped for if anyone wants to comment

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree this will be a hurricane very soon. Nice forecast as always.

[Josephine96]

Thank you Matt.. I wonder why you seem to be the only 1 commenting.. lol

[baygirl_1]

A well thought out forecast. Thanks for sharing! I just hope it's not dead-on for P'cola Beach. I saw on the local news that some folks, who lost their homes in Ivan, are planning to stay in Grand Lagoon in their mobile homes. Granted this is a strong TS/minimal hurricane, but it is probably going to get pretty nasty down there. If you have a chance, offer up some prayers for those folks, please!

[Josephine96]

Prayers will head their way

[air360]

I have a feeling that there are going to be at least a few people who, when looking at this storm or others this season, see that it doesnt APPEAR to be as big or as strong as one they went through last year and that they may take it more lightly...only to be suprised to find out that even a weaker storm can do great damage...

[Josephine96]

Weaker storms can certainly do great damage.. Look at that dread A word from 2001. ALLISON {shudders at just mentioning the name}