Is it west or not? You be the judge.

[Stormcenter]

Folks it looks like a new convection build up is moving westward. Check out the sat. and radar loop.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmob.shtml

[Steve]

There's a western burst of convection, but I think Arlene is still going mostly NNW.

Steve

[TampaFl]

Looks like a definate NW movement. Check out Eglin AFB radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kevx.shtml

[Stormcenter]

There's a western burst of convection, but I think Arlene is still going mostly NNW.

Steve

There shouldn't be a burst on the western side. It should be on the eastern. Check out this closer loop. This is in the same area the NHC found 989 pressure. Oh well maybe it's nothing but it's still interesting to see.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

[Droop12]

Agree Steve. By the way, you get anything from those bands that moved through earlier today? Hope you get a nice squall from Arlene. Im still not to sure what to expect once she comes knockin tomorrow. I have the attitude, I gotta see it before I believe it. Anyways, I guess its a good bet I can expect some windy and rainy conditions tomorrow. Have a good one ya'll and stay safe.

[Frank P]

maybe its an illusion created by the expanding convection to the west... or perhaps the center is elongating westward, which gives it such a westerly component...

seems to me it still is on track to perhaps go inland at the AL/FL line, which is what is basically projected by the NHC... then again, I wouldn't really mind a little more jog to the west.... but just not seeing it as I view the entire system on radar.... as best I can tell

[The Big Dog]

then again, I wouldn't really mind a little more jog to the west....

You wouldn't mind? You have a gripe with the people of Mobile?

[Frank P]

naw, I love Mobile... heck my brother lives in Mobile and I burried my Dad in Mobile... I just would like to see the Pensacola area sparred from any more beatings, hate to see all the blue tarps blown off and houses soak with copious amounts of rain... sad...... they're still is such bad shape and probably Mobile and the MS coast could handle a strong TS or min Cane much better than those poor folks...

nothing personal dude...

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like its headed more north than west

[vbhoutex]

Steve got it right!! It is still moving on a definite NNW tract with some convection growing on the West side of the LLCC.

[The Big Dog]

naw, I love Mobile... heck my brother lives in Mobile and I burried my Dad in Mobile... I just would like to see the Pensacola area sparred from any more beatings, hate to see all the blue tarps blown off and houses soak with copious amounts of rain... sad...... they're still is such bad shape and probably Mobile and the MS coast could handle a strong TS or min Cane much better than those poor folks...

nothing personal dude...

Nah, no problem here. I just thought that was a strange line. Pensacola's going to get soaked either way. So will you for that matter. Stay dry!

[Agua]

There's a western burst of convection, but I think Arlene is still going mostly NNW.

Steve

There shouldn't be a burst on the western side. It should be on the eastern.

Why?

As far as the movement of what I'm guessing to be the center, it has a large northern component to it.

But why should there not be a burst on the western side?

[Steve]

>>There shouldn't be a burst on the western side. It should be on the eastern. Check out this closer loop. This is in the same area the NHC found 989 pressure. Oh well maybe it's nothing but it's still interesting to see.

I agree. Arlene has been a pretty cool storm to track through the Caribbean and Gulf. She's had multiple vortices, orbiting centers,, models have shifted, everyone's gotten a little taste, etc. Every storm you watch teaches you something(s) new. As far as the burst of convection on the western side, I can't say why it's happeing unless in this particular instance, the pattern of spitting out rotating centers from the western side of Arlene produced a stronger one for this up pulse or if maybe the western edge is interacting with the trof or something.

>>Agree Steve. By the way, you get anything from those bands that moved through earlier today? Hope you get a nice squall from Arlene. Im still not to sure what to expect once she comes knockin tomorrow. I have the attitude, I gotta see it before I believe it. Anyways, I guess its a good bet I can expect some windy and rainy conditions tomorrow. Have a good one ya'll and stay safe.

Some drizzle and a couple of minor gusts. It's rained 4 or 5 times today so far. That's pretty atypical for any day. Tomorrow probably isn't going to last very long. When it's inland, it's a done deal for coastal residents.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

It will very interesting to read what the NHC has to say about this since they were they ones who started the new center and WNW movement discussion. The satellite images continue to intrigue me. Why? Well because as I stated earlier new convective bursts in tropical systems normally don't develop on the western unless it's directly over the center. If that's the case then this storm has been moving more westward than north. Hey I could and probably am wrong but it's still interesting.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

[Pebbles]

You know what... I have no IDEA what Arlene is up to tonight. I'm just flabbergasted watching all the different Sat loops. Just throwing up my hands in the air, and giving up for the present time. Don't think Arlene knows what she wants to do and untill then neither will we!

P.S. All I can think is the she mad at being pushed around from the east and west and being forced to go a way she doesn't wanna go (inland before getting up her strength) and so is having a temper tantrum. Toddler storms can be like that ya know. LOL


Christine
I smile because i have no idea what's going on!
2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!

[Wpwxguy]

Thats the best its looked on the west side yet. Those are some pretty hefty storms firing and blowing up rapidly. I still can't say anything as to movement. NNW for sure, but more west? I just can't say yet.

[NorthGaWeather]

Steve got it right!! It is still moving on a definite NNW tract with some convection growing on the West side of the LLCC.

The motion is NW attm.

[Derecho]

The recon positions have been pretty consisent with almost due NW motion all evening.

Don't see how there's ground for much debate with an AC in the system.

However it may even be a bit more W since the last VORTEX around midnight.

[Stormcenter]

It's moved .4 north and .5 west since the last advisory.

[Frank P]

Its amazing how we all are looking at basically the same data and can come up with so much conflicting conclusions.... I was relatively sure it was going NNW, but recon doesn't create illusions as does radar and satellite imagery....... I sit corrected, tired, eyes burning and just in an overall piss off mood....

I salute all who rightfully argued the NW motion.... it was in fact more west than north during the past three hours...