Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

I said it was cool.

But Snow_Wizzard was hoping for Sea-Tac highs in the low 50's with copious rain.

Instead... every day has been 60+ degrees this month with a total of .17 of rain. That is NOT dramatic... and it will be really tough to get to 2.40 inches of rain this month.

I agree though.

This is miserable... worthless weather. Give me sun or storms. Not this dripping... drizzly crap.

Snow_Wizzard... this is not helping you statistically and it sucks.

[andycottle]

I agree. I would much rather see thunderstorms than to see this on/off light drizzel type rain. In fact, I go too Ohio in about two & half weeks(27th), and I hope to see some really cool t-storms while there! I`ll be in Ohio for three weeks. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

I would not consider this "cool" weather...I would consider this downright "cold" for this time of year...it's the middle of June...to have a high temperature struggle to hit 60F is pretty tough with the high sun angle and time of year. Temperatures 8-10F below normal is "cold"...not "cool".

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

High today at Sea-Tac was 62 degrees.

Normal high is 68 degrees.


That is cool. Not cold.


I would consider "cold" to be a high of 58 degrees or lower.

[R-Dub]

Light rain almost all day with a high of 57 degrees...........YUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHERE IS SUMMER????????

Will I ever be able to play on the lake any time soon......Doesn't look like it
Maybe next year!

6/8/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:07:36 PM CURRENT MIN/MAX
Temperature (ºF) 54.8 51.3 / 57.8
Humidity (%) 89.0
Wind (mph) N 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.19
Pressure ("Hg) 29.99
Monthly Rain: 0.48 "
Dew Point: 51.6 ºF

[TT-SEA]

To cheer for this weather in SUMMER so that it MIGHT snow for one week during the winter is BEYOND insane.

I am serious.

[snow_wizzard]

I never did say I was sane! Hahahahahahahahahaha!

The weather in Covington has been considerably cooler and much wetter than Sea - Tac so far this month. We had three consecutive highs below 60 and about 1.5 inches of rain, so far. Almost all of the rain has fallen in "pitch fork" fashion, and we had a nice hail / thunder event the other day. It is hard to figure out why Sea - Tac has been so blocked from getting much rain this month. To say the least, they are going to have MANY more chances.

By the way...I have more than a week of cold weather in mind for next winter! Take a good look at those old Palmer records...you will see what it is capable of doing! We're going for the big stuff here.

[TT-SEA]

If this winter ends up warmer and drier than normal... will you be severely disappointed??

[snow_wizzard]

You are damn right I would be disappointed! I haven't been this sure about a winter in years. It would be a bitter disappointment if this one falls through.

By the way...the monthly average for Sea - Tac so far this month is running 2.4 degees below normal. That is pretty solidly below normal, but it could have easily been lower given the pattern we have had. I will be most interested to see the final numbers on this one!

[weather girl]

Really beautiful afternoon here. 74 degrees with some mid-level clouds starting to move in. The NW is perfect when it's like this.

It doesn't sound like you guys have gotten the rain up there that we've gotten down here. We're at 1.08 for the month with more coming each of the next few days.

Does anybody know if there are any images at all of the infamous Columbus Day Storm? From what I can tell there aren't...but maybe somebody knows? I suspect there are no satellites. I wasn't around for it, but have heard about it my whole life. It must have been something to see. I've been reading today where some experts claim it was the strength of a category 4 hurricane....most put it at a 3. It certainly sounds like it earned its Storm of the Century bragging rights.

[andycottle]

Chris...if you would like, you might can try contacting Cliff Mass at the U.W of the Atmosphereic Science Dept. Maybe he might can try to help ya out. Think he showed a few pics of the Columbus day storm back in November of last year when did a presentation on storms I think it was.

Here`s the link if you would like to send him an e-mail.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/directo ... html#cliff

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

It is nice to see 1969 showing up on the analog list.

The winter of 1968-69 was very close to that of 2004-2005. Except for the fact that the exact same upper air pattern we had in January of 1969 failed to produce the same snowy conditions in January of 2005.

With common patterns in 1969 and 1993... it is very hard to understand why Snow_Wizzard is so sure of this winter. I think he is getting lost in the details.

Most locations are running below normal for rainfall in June. This month is not nearly as extreme or strange as you are making it out to be. And although the models show troughing... no big rainmakers are on the way. Sure... some places will get hit with a C-Zone but that is TOTALLY normal.

I am almost certain you will be bitterly disappointed with this coming winter. The analog years and global warming are VERY strong indicators of a warmer than normal winter with maybe a week of marginally cold weather.

I have proven to be fairly accurate in predicting long-term trends. I just do not see much to be excited about. At the very least... you should be more skeptical.

[weather girl]

Thank you for the info, Andy. I'm going to see what I can find out. From what I know now, the Columbus Day Storm happened when the remnants of Typhoon Freda hooked up with a low pressure cyclone. Something really caught on, and we had a storm like no other.

[andycottle]

Your welcome, Chris.

Such a slow day here on the board huh..?;)

Latest GFS is showing a few troughs of low pressure through rest of this week that should keep at least few showers hanging around our area. No real major ones to speak of in the short term, but just some weak ones. There should also be some dry periods inbetween systems as well.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I cannot believe how common it is for a trough to take up residence in the NE Pacific in June. Looking back through the records from 1948-2004... you can see that it happens ALL the time.

In fact it is so common... one cannot draw solid conclusions about what this means for next winter.

But sometimes June ends up being VERY wet. This usually happens in a different way with a couple very wet systems rolling through. That pattern seems to have a connection to a cold winter.

This year is not working out that way.

Snow_Wizzard is getting WAY too excited about a couple good showers in Covington. WAY too excited.

[AnthonyC]

Ahhhh!! Enough of this weather...it's June 10!! Not March 10!!

If I wake up to another cloudy morning, I'm moving to a different state. This persistent pattern of weak weather systems rolling in one after another looks to continue for the forseeable future...actually, long range models don't show an established ridge for at least the next two weeks...that takes us to the end of June.

This has been a miserable week for senior activities...our senior breakfast was moved indoors on Tuesday and today our senior BBQ was moved indoors too. What a waste...it's summer!!! Start acting like it!

And I agree with TT-SEA...Snow_Wizzard I wouldn't get your hopes up about next winter...there is no distinct correlation that would suggest a wet June brings a cold winter...in reality, this June has been drier than normal granted it's been cloudy and cool almost everyday.

Anthony

[andycottle]

The latest GFS, GEM, and Canadain modles all seem to show weak troughs in the short and long term period. This will and or should keep the showers and some what cool weather theme going for at least the next couple weeks. Am not seeing any major storm system or really big domes of high pressure building up. So looks like were kind of in our 'June gloom' so-to-speak. And as mentioned about the cool weather....the 6 to 10 outlook from the CPC calls for Below normal temps and Above normal precip over the PNW. The 8 - 14 day outlook also calls for the same. So over all, no REAL summer warmth coning our way anytime soon.

-- Andy

[R-Dub]

I haven't had time or the energy to look up past June's, but this seems quite normal, the past two dry warm June's were not normal, atleast from 28yrs of memory from living here. At least from my family and friends the motto has always been "summer doesn't begin until July 5th", because it was usually quite wet in the years past up until and including the 4th of July, then the awesome weather starts on the 5th of course

Currently Mostly Cloudy with a temp of 65 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

There IS a correlation between a really wet June and a cold winter.

But this month is not working out that way.

Snow_Wizzard will continue to look at the maps and think major rain but there seems to be a missing component. That is probably tropical moisture.

So instead... even very deep upper lows only manage showers and a C-Zone.

I really believe a huge disappointment is in store for him.

[TT-SEA]

Although... 1964 and 1974 have shown up on the analog list as well. But June of 1964 was much wetter than June of 2005 will be at the end.


December of 1964 had frequent moderate snows interrupted by lots of rain.

December of 1974 had one big snowstorm that quickly melted.