1 AM Tropical Weather Advisory

[HurryKane]

WTNT31 KNHC 110545
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

..ARLENE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN
FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT
210 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE
REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ARLENE
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
..MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA AUTOMATED
STATION SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 39 MPH WITH A GUST TO 44 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST...THE APPALACHIANS...THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.


COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...27.5 N... 86.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Agua]

hmmmmmmmmmmm................ That may be my cue to buy a bunch of beer before folks start stirring and empty the shelves.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is the most uglest 70 mph tropical storm I'v seen. Tropical storm Bill of 2003 had a eye in looked 100 times better. Bonnie looked a million times better to. She even had a eye at one point. Also the convection has decreased.

The first recon did not even find a warm core.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Pebbles]

This is the most uglest 70 mph tropical storm I'v seen. Tropical storm Bill of 2003 had a eye in looked 100 times better. Bonnie looked a million times better to. She even had a eye at one point. Also the convection has decreased.

The first recon did not even find a warm core.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

You know.. earlier I thought she was starting to look great for a tropical storm (cruddy for hurricane but not bad for TS). But, since sunset she look cruddy! Bah dawn will bring a new round of convection and we can see where she really stands then. And of course recon notes all night too!

Christine
I smile because i have no idea what's going on!
2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!