I don't think we'll see sustained winds of 70MPH anywhere

[dhweather]

I just don't believe that we'll see sustained winds above 50-55MPH,
but might get a few gusts to 70-75MPH.

Despite some saying it's looking better and better, it's not.

There is very little convection near the center.

Arlene will likely be more of a weak-moderate tropical storm at landfall.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Agua]

I don't believe you or I will see sustained winds of 25 mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system looks the best it has ever looked. It has one LLC with banding around it. In a area of convection. Yesterday this system was not even 1/10s as oreganized as it is now. I can say this is a tropical storm now. I trust the nhc!!!

[x-y-no]

Convection is wrapping around to the south, but she's running out of room and time for intensification.

I'll split the difference and guess that the eastern side of the eye will have 60-65 mph sustained winds.

Jan

[Brent]

I know we won't. Afterall, the recorded sustained winds in most recent HURRICANES(much less disorganized messy tropical storms) are usually much less than what's actually estimated at landfall.

Just offshore Apalachicola had a wind gust to 69 mph about 10 hours ago... that may not be topped.

[dhweather]

The system looks the best it has ever looked. It has one LLC with banding around it. In a area of convection. Yesterday this system was not even 1/10s as oreganized as it is now. I can say this is a tropical storm now. I trust the nhc!!!

Matt, you are hyping and hoping. It's not going to happen. Arlene
does not look like a well organized system at all. While it does have an
LLC,There's almost no convection and water vapor images show there's
dry air surrounding the system and getting more entrained into the system.

WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Anonymous]

I do not expect a hurricane, although it is still possible. Not much of a difference between 70 mph and 75 mph anyways. I can tell you, there is a bit of -removed- going on, which I don't like. People have already lost their lives and this is a dangerous tropical storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system yesterday was not any where near as over all oreganized. This is closer to your text book tropical storm. I'm not hyping at all. In believe it or not I thought it was weaker earlier this morning. But then Derek said look at the radar. In then the area of convection started to reform. Hardly hyping or hoping or caring any more for that matter.


If you call a system that had 2 or 3 LLC with all the winds 150 mile or more to the northeast more oreganized then thats your choice.

[Dean4Storms]

You will need strong convection to bring the 70mph sustained winds down to the surface, but that does not mean that the northern and eastern wall out within 50 or so miles from the center may not have gusts to 70mph. We will have to wait and see.

[Brent]

I do not expect a hurricane, although it is still possible. Not much of a difference between 70 mph and 75 mph anyways. I can tell you, there is a bit of -removed- going on, which I don't like. People have already lost their lives and this is a dangerous tropical storm.

I agree... I have my doubts it's even 70 mph right now. I don't blame the NHC for keeping them up so people won't get complacent about it though just in case someone does see those winds.

[Brent]

The system yesterday was not any where near as over all oreganized. This is closer to your text book tropical storm. I'm not hyping at all. In believe it or not I thought it was weaker earlier this morning. But then Derek said look at the radar. In then the area of convection started to reform. Hardly hyping or hoping or caring any more for that matter.

There's next to nothing around the center on radar. The SUN will be out just after the center passes you. That is not the classic tropical storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Alot more closer to it then yesterday.

[cyclonaut]

The system had its moment or 2 where it lookd like it might be significant but thats over & she is almost over.

Gave me some good downpours & gusts though.

Nice wake up call,I officially in hurricane mode now!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In one more thing yesterday we could of only dreamed to see a Arlene that had one central cirualtion. Even so it might not be that strong it still looks better.

[Brent]

Alot more closer to it then yesterday.

No... the convection, while not on the west side, was actually near the center(to the north and east). That is a tropical storm... albeit a sheared one with dry air.

[baygirl_1]

Okay, y'all are making me a little nervous sort of "writing her off" here. I mean, I know she's not bad, but my concern is the rain and flooding. And, is it just me, or does she seem to not be moving a whole lot the past few hours? I've been checking radar and satellite images, and, to me, she doesn't seem to be moving much. Am I wrong? (Please tell me I am because we don't need another Danny or Georges!)

[FWBHurricane]

Actually she has a fairly defined center...or eye...whatever you wanna call it.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MOB&region=d4&lat=30.42069817&lon=-87.21971893&label-Pensacola%2c%20FL

*If the link doesnt work..sorry about that*

[dhweather]

I'd call this borderline -removed-. I really wish you would not just throw
things about there with an explained basis of why you think something will
happen. That is counterproductive for the group.






http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:33 pm

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The convection has started to reform over the LLC. There is dark reds...Looking good for a hurricane by morning. Can't wait for recon.



http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html






http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:56 pm

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Yes there is dry air but this storm is trying ot pump moisture into the Atmosphere. Come on storm you can make 10 more mph.





http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

This baby is really getting its act together. The satellite shows cirus clouds/outflow spreading to the north in to the northwest of the center.

[Brent]

Okay, y'all are making me a little nervous sort of "writing her off" here. I mean, I know she's not bad, but my concern is the rain and flooding. And, is it just me, or does she seem to not be moving a whole lot the past few hours? I've been checking radar and satellite images, and, to me, she doesn't seem to be moving much. Am I wrong? (Please tell me I am because we don't need another Danny or Georges!)

She's moving at a good clip... about 14 mph. She's not Danny or Georges. Her area of rains and winds aren't as large either. I will be very surprised if conditions get much worse than they already have been in Mobile.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Please do not attack me I'v been up for along time. In it is not -removed- it was also what the nhc was forecasting. They said it could become a hurricane. The shape of the storm has formed around one LLC. In also it is not me that makes the offical forecast. Because if I where this would be around 50 mph.

Do not attack me with this -removed- trash

Also I think I did a pretty good job unlike this wishcast that go's against the nhc.