Morning NE Gulf Plotted SFC Obs

[wxman57]

Just snapped a picture in GARP of observations around Arlene. Looks like those FL winds are not making it down anywhere NEAR the surface. Most buoys/ships are reporting just minimal TS-force winds. Also, with all the dry air wrapping around the center, Florida may luck out and get only a few inches of rain in isolated areas. I think most coastal observations at landfall will be in the 30-45 mph range. Arlene will be forgotten in a few weeks. That's good, they don't need another bad one as they're stll cleaning up from Ivan there.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene10.gif

[dhweather]

I agree - I think she's falling apart. IR shows a little convection firing,
but I suspect too little, too late. The dry air and shear never let her get organized.

[TampaFl]

Also, with all the dry air wrapping around the center, Florida may luck out and get only a few inches of rain in isolated areas.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene10.gif">

Agree wxman on the rainfall. I have "only" recived 1.08" of rain since Friday, with 0.78" falling since midnight.

Robert

[wxman57]

Here's a 7:30am CDT image. Note the buoy (42040) in the heavy squall west of the center with only 20kt wind. For the most part, Arlene is a very minimal TS with 35-50 mph wind, mostly east and southeast of the center.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene11.gif

[Brent]

I think that's the least amount of precip I've seen around the center of any storm.

[LCfromFL]

Hey Wxman...thanks for posting those images. I really appreciate the graphics and the analysis!

[Brett Adair]

This storm is definately a wierd one. The most precip is on the NW side. Hey wxman57, what program is that you are runnning? G.A.R.P. 2.1? Never heard of it....time for a google search.

[wxman57]

Here's a new image with 15Z observations. Max wind that buoy 42040 reported (west side of Arlene in squalls) was 31 kts gusting 36kts:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene11.gif">

[wxman57]

This storm is definately a wierd one. The most precip is on the NW side. Hey wxman57, what program is that you are runnning? G.A.R.P. 2.1? Never heard of it....time for a google search.

Brent,

GARP is just a graphical way to display GEMPAK data. GEMPAK Analysis and Rendering Program. You can find info here:

http://www.atmos.uiuc.edu/courses/atms4 ... ctions.pdf

Here's a new 15Z image:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene15.gif">

[SunnyThoughts]

wxman, thanks for the posts...the last image you posted you can see the entire center, very nice. Here in Santa Rosa county just to the east of Pensacola...were watching and waiting. Brief showers off and on and breezy conditions from time to time.