Arlene: Another Hint of a "Gulf Season?"

[donsutherland1]

Since 1950, there have been 8 seasons in which:

• the first named storm developed and made landfall in June
• landfall for this first storm occurred in the Gulf region

In all 8 seasons, the Gulf states saw more landfalling tropical cyclones than the East Coast. Overall, during those 8 seasons, 22 storms (85%) made landfall in the Gulf region and 4 (15%) made landfall on the East Coast.

In addition, during 5/8 (63%) of those seasons, one major hurricane made landfall in the United States. 4/5 (80%) of those major hurricanes made initial landfall on the Gulf Coast. One storm made landfall in southeast Florida and then a second landfall as a major hurricane in Louisiana.

The major hurricanes that made U.S. landfall during those 8 seasons were:

Audrey (1957): TX/LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Hilda (1964): LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Betsy (1965): SE FL/LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Carmen (1974): LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Opal (1995): Florida Panhandle experienced major hurricane conditions

[skywarn]

Great analysis and something for us in Louisiana & the Gulf Coast to be wary of.

[Andrew92]

Great analysis Don!

Out on a whim, I discovered the other 3 seasons.....1966 (Alma), 1968 (Abby), and 1972 (Agnes, ewwww).

-Andrew92

[dwg71]

Since 1950, there have been 8 seasons in which:

• the first named storm developed and made landfall in June
• landfall for this first storm occurred in the Gulf region

In all 8 seasons, the Gulf states saw more landfalling tropical cyclones than the East Coast. Overall, during those 8 seasons, 22 storms (85%) made landfall in the Gulf region and 4 (15%) made landfall on the East Coast.

In addition, during 5/8 (63%) of those seasons, one major hurricane made landfall in the United States. 4/5 (80%) of those major hurricanes made initial landfall on the Gulf Coast. One storm made landfall in southeast Florida and then a second landfall as a major hurricane in Louisiana.

The major hurricanes that made U.S. landfall during those 8 seasons were:

Audrey (1957): TX/LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Hilda (1964): LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Betsy (1965): SE FL/LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Carmen (1974): LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Opal (1995): Florida Panhandle experienced major hurricane conditions

You can manipulate statistics to get any desired outcome when it comes to Hurricanes. They are not predictable, there are no coorelations that can be drawn. I could pick certain years and come up with a theory that could be a direct dispute to yours. There are no rhyme or reason as to when or where they are going to strike. we might not have another system until August. or we could have one next week. No way to tell.

[donsutherland1]

Andrew92,

1966 and 1968 are in the mix. I excluded 1972 on account of Alpha (May 1972) being that season's first storm.

[MGC]

dwg71, Ok explain how Don has manipulated the statistics? Don is just providing us with historical fact.

Don, bite your tongue, I don't want to hear that 2005 will be a GOM season, great analysis.....MGC

[cyclonaut]

Since 1950, there have been 8 seasons in which:

• the first named storm developed and made landfall in June
• landfall for this first storm occurred in the Gulf region

In all 8 seasons, the Gulf states saw more landfalling tropical cyclones than the East Coast. Overall, during those 8 seasons, 22 storms (85%) made landfall in the Gulf region and 4 (15%) made landfall on the East Coast.

In addition, during 5/8 (63%) of those seasons, one major hurricane made landfall in the United States. 4/5 (80%) of those major hurricanes made initial landfall on the Gulf Coast. One storm made landfall in southeast Florida and then a second landfall as a major hurricane in Louisiana.

The major hurricanes that made U.S. landfall during those 8 seasons were:

Audrey (1957): TX/LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Hilda (1964): LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Betsy (1965): SE FL/LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Carmen (1974): LA experienced major hurricane conditions
Opal (1995): Florida Panhandle experienced major hurricane conditions

You can manipulate statistics to get any desired outcome when it comes to Hurricanes. They are not predictable, there are no coorelations that can be drawn. I could pick certain years and come up with a theory that could be a direct dispute to yours. There are no rhyme or reason as to when or where they are going to strike. we might not have another system until August. or we could have one next week. No way to tell.

The hope is to see if over the years we can figure out these cycles & try to get some understanding of how & why these things do what they do.

Having said that, I understand what you are saying..There may be no real pattern,these things are unpredictable to some extent & it will be difficult to get a grasp of them.

[donsutherland1]

Dwg71,

With all due respect, the use of statistics to point to a possible Gulf Season--note the "?"--is not merely a manipulation. If one addresses strictly the issue of more landfalling storms on the East Coast or the Gulf Coast, the figures are meaningful even with the small sample size.

Where problems arise and I did not attempt to address those issues was the number of landfalling storms, percentage of Gulf vs. East Coast storms, etc. Aside from Arlene's possible hint, there is much other info., especially the upper level winds data, that is hinting at a Gulf Season. By the end of July, we'll see whether that remains the case with those winds (which are a key predictor of landfalling data per recently published research).

In short, if one understands historical information and synoptic information can help clarify situations. The idea that Arlene would make landfall on the Gulf Coast even when it was still Invest 90L is one example.

In the end, it will be interesting to see how the 2005 season evolves. Per earlier data, particularly evolving upper level winds, I believe the 2005 season will likely see 2-4 landfalling storms, with the GOM region being at greatest risk for landfalls. Arlene merely adds to my confidence on this issue.

Let's see how the season winds up.

[donsutherland1]

MGC,

Although it might be an unpopular idea, I truly prefer that the season would see only "fish storms." Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be likely.

The evolving summer pattern seems to favor a GOM-season. Arlene is not the cause of such a season but merely a symptom of how things are evolving.

FWIW, since 1851, MS has experienced major hurricane conditions every 17.1 years. The last time MS saw a major hurricane was 1985 (Elena). The longest wait was almost 56 years, so it's really difficult to speculate just how due MS really might be.

Whether or not there are cycles where certain areas are favored for such storms remains to be seen. Dr. Gray et. al., appear to have found cycles at least with respect to Florida.

[Brent]

Allison was in 1995 and struck Apalachee Bay... later of course came Erin and Opal hitting Pensacola(Erin hit the Atlantic side of FL first).

[Terry]

Hmmm, it seems that FLA takes a hit whether it is a "GOM" season or an "Eastcoast" season. We are both.

Don, thanks for your consistently great information for both winter and tropical historical perspectives. I always look forward to your posts - very informative!

[donsutherland1]

Terry,

Thanks very much for the kind words.

Yes, Florida gets impacted far too often. Since 1851, Florida has experienced major hurricane conditions, on average, every 4.4 years. Texas ranks a distant second.

[MGC]

Thanks Don, I too doubt all the canes will be fish. I wish they were though. Canes kill people and destroy property. Keep up the good work.....MGC

[AussieMark]

Terry,

Thanks very much for the kind words.

Yes, Florida gets impacted far too often. Since 1851, Florida has experienced major hurricane conditions, on average, every 4.4 years. Texas ranks a distant second.

Would that mean Texas is below average at the moment. Between 1980 and Present (24 years) they have had 3 majors. thats like 1 every 8 years. I know in the late 50's - early 70's they had a lot of majors.

Audrey (1957)
Carla (1961)
Beulah (1967)
Celia (1970)

thats like 4 in 13 years

[Steve]

>>You can manipulate statistics to get any desired outcome when it comes to Hurricanes. They are not predictable, there are no coorelations that can be drawn. I could pick certain years and come up with a theory that could be a direct dispute to yours. There are no rhyme or reason as to when or where they are going to strike. we might not have another system until August. or we could have one next week. No way to tell.

And the earth was flat for at least most of the last 100,000 years. You can't pinpoint landfall from several months away, but as Don alluded to (I think), the reach of the mind must exceed our current understanding in order that we progress as a race. No doubt people were dogging Dr. Gray 20 years ago - there's no way to determine how many storms a given year might yield. This is about the 3rd time this year a naysayer has denied that we can ever grasp mid-term pattern evolution to come up with landfall hotspots. But we're on the threshold of a basic understanding of that science. Dr. Gray has begun giving percentage chances of landfall. Other independent amateur sites have as well. Bastardi's been at the forefront of it for 3 years. I catch his videos on pirate sometimes, but I no longer subscribe to his pay service. He claimed in early May that we were heading toward a trof split pattern during the first two weeks of June and hung his hat on possible development in the W Caribbean or S Gulf that would likely impact the Eastern Gulf. He hinted on the last one I saw (maybe Thurs or Friday) that another trof split was coming in about 14 days. He didn't push his luck on development, but alluded to the possible ingredients. Hey, if a piece splits off and lays around for a while and intersects with a wave, you've got a shot at home grown/hybird development. Will it happen? Not necessarily. Might it happen? Sure. Now once you look at all the factors that potentially go into pattern forecasting, there's no reason to think we can't (at least with some certainty) get to where we know how about many storms will form in a given year, how strong they're liable to be, and where some of them may landfall. Things like winter mean trof position, precipitation and temperature patterns coming out of the Spring, water temperature profiles, wave patterns exiting africa, and such leave clues as to what might lie ahead. Joe's on record this year calling for 5 landfalls. He hasn't come out with his landfall intesity forecast yet, but his April and May patterns+adjustments have yielded "x" number of oil rig shutdown days, a basic season that will focus on the SE Coast, Gulf and Florida, a preliminary breakdown of 2 TS's, 1 Cat 1, 1 Cat 2 and 1 Cat 3 impacting the US. Suppose 4 of the 5 happen or even that we get 3 tropical storms, a cat 1 and 2 cat 2's without a 3? Would it be called successful? At some point these things will be figured out as much as we can. And when we get there, we'll all be able to plan a little better where to spend public resources.

No one is saying that 3 months out on September 14, 2005, Savannah, Georgia is going to be hit from the ESE by a Category 4 storm. We'll never get to that point. But we might be able to say that with certain early indications, maybe this is a year where coastal GA and SC might be affected. So until we get there, don't doubt that science and ingenuity can yield us some very desirable information.

Steve

[Agua]

I'm going to be frazzled by the end of the season if a heavy GoM season materializes. Following Arlene has screwed up my hours already.

[Anonymous]

Dwg71,

With all due respect, the use of statistics to point to a possible Gulf Season--note the "?"--is not merely a manipulation. If one addresses strictly the issue of more landfalling storms on the East Coast or the Gulf Coast, the figures are meaningful even with the small sample size.

Where problems arise and I did not attempt to address those issues was the number of landfalling storms, percentage of Gulf vs. East Coast storms, etc. Aside from Arlene's possible hint, there is much other info., especially the upper level winds data, that is hinting at a Gulf Season. By the end of July, we'll see whether that remains the case with those winds (which are a key predictor of landfalling data per recently published research).

In short, if one understands historical information and synoptic information can help clarify situations. The idea that Arlene would make landfall on the Gulf Coast even when it was still Invest 90L is one example.

In the end, it will be interesting to see how the 2005 season evolves. Per earlier data, particularly evolving upper level winds, I believe the 2005 season will likely see 2-4 landfalling storms, with the GOM region being at greatest risk for landfalls. Arlene merely adds to my confidence on this issue.

Let's see how the season winds up.

I agree about the use of statistics even though we may disagree on what the remainder of the season will be like . 1958 and 2003 are two years in that sample, and they were a couple of iwic's analogs, which of course were selected with a look at the remaining data such as the upper pattern etc. We'll see.

[crazycajuncane]

How about this statistic.... No two seasons have ever been alike. Never with the same amount of storms hitting the same exact places at the same exact strength.

Just like all other acts of nature are unpredicatable, hurricanes fall in this.

Some years we see more earthquakes then others and more tornadoes then others.

Nature can be observed and with technology somewhat predictable, but nothing is fact. Some weathermen still can't tell you when it's going to rain.

[Steve]

>>How about this statistic.... No two seasons have ever been alike. Never with the same amount of storms hitting the same exact places at the same exact strength.

That's obvious and I don't believe that anyone is trying to say a season will be a carbon copy of any other season. But after the 2004 storm season, are you convinced that if the Bermuda Ridge is positioned just so, there's a shot that Cape Verde storms may just be steered toward the United States coastline? Assuming you say yes to that, then you're already casting off those skeptic garments. Remember, we aren't talking exact science here.

>>Just like all other acts of nature are unpredicatable, hurricanes fall in this.

I disagree. If you see a cold front coming down from the north with a certain push and a bunch of bottled up -30 degree Canadian air, you might be able to say 5 days out that it's going to snow in Wisconsin. You might also be able to say that front is going to reach the Gulf Coast and bring nighttime lows into the 30's. Ultimately, it might or might not. But you've seen enough fronts to know that /this one/ probably is coming down. Now go back to earlier times such as mentioned in the Weather Wizard's Cloud book. How did native Americans know when weather was going to do such and such? What about mariners? Certain weather phenomina in certain places usually are predicated by changes in the clouds. If it's mid summer and clearing up in Louisiana, and you see some cirrcus clouds moving from west to east and the wind is blowing in x direction, you can be pretty certain that a hot Texican/Mexican airmass is on its way. So let's take observation to a higher level. If we can see a few hours out ("boy those cumulus clouds sure are darkening up, looks like it's gonna rain this afternoon"), a few days out ("cold front is coming"), a few weeks out ("that trof is going to split to end this pattern"), why would it seem unreasonable to think that we couldn't figure out something a few months out? Hell, we can even figure out thermo-haline patterns and 20 year (aka multi-decadal) hurricane patterns ("we're returning to the period of above normal activity of the 1940s-1960s as the Atlantic warms). And the more you think about it, the more you realize that a scientific analysis of a particular season and particular patterns might yield a particular result or a close facsimile.

>>Some years we see more earthquakes then others and more tornadoes then others.

True. And some earthquakes are roughly predictable based on periods and patterns of changes in seismic energy. And severe weather, like hurricanes, isn't a unique event per se'. It is in the fact that no storm will ever be EXACTLY the same. But it isn't in as much as we know how those storms are likely to behave, what their cycles are, and where they are most likely to occur (e.g. "tornado alley").

>>Nature can be observed and with technology somewhat predictable, but nothing is fact. Some weathermen still can't tell you when it's going to rain.

I agree. And that's the whole point of grasping for this kind of understanding. That's what the human mind does and why we've come as far along as we have. Really, there are just a few hurdles to cross to get from "we'll never be able to do this" to "how do we do this". As I've said before, I am of the opinion that we're at least at the threshold if not already well on our way to quantifying and qualifying hurricane seasons.

Steve

[crazycajuncane]

I can gather 10 seasons of tornado activity and pass it off just as people do with hurricanes if I wanted to.

The truth of it is and the point of my post is that we can't say this season will be busier than last just because the first T.S. came in early June.

We can't compare this season to 1886... climates have changed, weather changes and each season will be unique.