18z Gfs on potential new system this week

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It's not the fact that we have an active June, its all the other factors that count towards whether or not we have an active season.

[rainstorm]

exactly. an active june means a dead season. i said several days ago that the monsoon trough was well north of its normal postion, so another june storm is quite likely

[SouthernWx]

Maybe so but this seasons forecast is not suppose to be quiet..There have been seasons such 1886,1887,1893.1906,1933 & 1995 that produced early development & that remained consistent through the rest of the season..

So since the forecast is for an active season it looks like the season might be off to the races.

Yes...my feelings (and fear) exactly

[air360]

just becuase something happened one way once does not mean it will happen that way again. We have to remember that when it comes down to it we are not in control at all...God is...so whatever happens can't always be attributed to "what happened in the past"....if God so desires he could have us not have any more systems this year...or we could have one every week.....

[air360]

...not trying to say that it wont happen like it did in previous years...im just saying the only way we will truely know what will happen is to wait and see

[MGC]

I don't think that an active June will mean a dead season. Total bunk. I would be shocked if 2005 does not produce a bumper crop of canes. I was consdering upping my forecast based on how warm the oceans are but decided not to........MGC

[cyclonaut]

I don't think that an active June will mean a dead season. Total bunk. I would be shocked if 2005 does not produce a bumper crop of canes. I was consdering upping my forecast based on how warm the oceans are but decided not to........MGC

Well said!

[Stormcenter]

I don't think that an active June will mean a dead season. Total bunk. I would be shocked if 2005 does not produce a bumper crop of canes. I was consdering upping my forecast based on how warm the oceans are but decided not to........MGC

In my opinion an active June will in not mean we will have a slow season I think it's just the opposit.

[AussieMark]

I know this is only like 34 years of time but over that period seasons which had numerous storms storms in June or July period still had decent activity during the August-October period only a few seasons had a major decline.


2003 had 3 systems by beginning of August (12 there after)
1997 had 4 systems by beginning of August (3 there after)
1996 had 3 systems by beginning of August (10 there after)
1995 had 5 systems by beginning of August (14 there after)
1990 had 3 systems by beginning of August (11 there after)
1989 had 4 systems by beginning of August (7 there after)
1986 had 2 systems by beginning of August (4 there after)
1985 had 2 systems by beginning of August (9 there after)
1981 had 2 systems by beginning of August (9 there after)
1979 had 3 systems by beginning of August (5 there after)
1975 had 2 systems by beginning of August (6 there after)
1970 had 3 systems by beginning of August (4 there after)

[Brent]

exactly. an active june means a dead season. i said several days ago that the monsoon trough was well north of its normal postion, so another june storm is quite likely

Do you EVER predict an active season?

[AussieMark]

exactly. an active june means a dead season. i said several days ago that the monsoon trough was well north of its normal postion, so another june storm is quite likely

Do you EVER predict an active season?

We will just get the humble pie ready for November

[Hurricaneman]

if other models join, then maybe there is a chance

[HurricaneJoe22]

Not only did 2 and 3 in nearly the same spot in 1886, but the 4 storm hit just a little south of there, too. So that's three storms in a small area in just a month...imagine what the media would have done with that

[robjay]

Well here's history in the makin' - looks like this will be an uneventful Atlantic feature - unless it does a Frances maneuver or something!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_91.gif

[Ola]

exactly. an active june means a dead season. i said several days ago that the monsoon trough was well north of its normal postion, so another june storm is quite likely

Just because the rooster sings before the sun comes out, doesnt mean he causes the sun to come out.

When the parameters are arranged for a slow season, it causes storms to form in June, thus making slow seasons prone to June storms. But the June storm doesn't cause the slow season, it is the parameters. When conditions are right for an active season, well things are normally not conducive for June storms, thus making active seasons unlikely of having a June storm. But it is the conditions and not an early storm that dictates it.

If you have conditions ripe for an active season like this, normally June would be slow, but if you get a June storm then its a bonus, because only the climate conditions and not earth's memory of if there was a storm in June, determine what will happen during the next 5 months.