Arlene: Another Hint of a "Gulf Season?"

[Steve]

>.The truth of it is and the point of my post is that we can't say this season will be busier than last just because the first T.S. came in early June.

We agree on that.

[Normandy]

Well...Houston is due for a big hurricane (last incredible powerful hurricane struck Galveston like....100 years ago or something correct me if im wrong).....lets just hope its not this year.

[donsutherland1]

Tropicalweatherwatcher,

Since 1851, TX has experienced major hurricane conditions 19 times or, on average, once every 8.1 years. The last major 'cane to impact Texas was Bret (1999).

[donsutherland1]

TropicalWxWatcher,

I used the "?" at the end, because while I believe Arlene might be a hint of how the summer pattern is evolving, things could change. In the end, it will be the final results that determine whether or not things work out one way or another.

Of course, if the GOM gets hit by 3 relatively weak storms and the East Coast gets ravaged by a major hurricane, clearly the East Coast would have suffered more even if more frequent landfalls occurred in the GOM.

It will be most interesting to see how things turn out.

[canegrl04]

Typically,the first storms of the season tend to form in the area of the GOM anyway

[Swimdude]

I think that was a great analysis. It's interesting to see how seasons begin... As to what we may expect in the future. Of course hurricane statistics can be manipulated - but are they incorrect?

For some reason, heavy-Gulf seasons are more interesting anyway. Perhaps that's because I live there. Or maybe it's just the fact that a Gulf of Mexico storm means definate landfall.

[Swimdude]

Well...Houston is due for a big hurricane (last incredible powerful hurricane struck Galveston like....100 years ago or something correct me if im wrong).....lets just hope its not this year.

Keep in mind, Normandy is referring to HOUSTON, not TEXAS. Of course Texas has had its share of major hurricanes. Ironically, the last of which was Bret.

However, it's incorrect that the Galveston hurricane of 1900 was the last major one. If i'm not mistaken, we had Allen in 1980 and [i'm positive about this] Alicia in 1984. Although I wasn't alive for either.

[Brent]

Well...Houston is due for a big hurricane (last incredible powerful hurricane struck Galveston like....100 years ago or something correct me if im wrong).....lets just hope its not this year.

Keep in mind, Normandy is referring to HOUSTON, not TEXAS. Of course Texas has had its share of major hurricanes. Ironically, the last of which was Bret.

However, it's incorrect that the Galveston hurricane of 1900 was the last major one. If i'm not mistaken, we had Allen in 1980 and [i'm positive about this] Alicia in 1984. Although I wasn't alive for either.

Alicia wasn't a major was it(at least not in Houston/Galveston proper?)

[SouthernWx]

You can manipulate statistics to get any desired outcome when it comes to Hurricanes. They are not predictable, there are no coorelations that can be drawn.

Friend, you obviously haven't been on this weather forum very long (or at WWBB or EasternUSWx), or you would know donsutherland1 is an extremely well respected and knowledgeble weather poster.....someone who always provides extremely interesting and accurate information from his extensive and excellent research.

My advice? Friend, instead of popping off regarding things you don't know much about, sit back and learn from the research experts who DO know what they are posting about (i.e.- gentlemen such as Don).

Just my 0.02¢ worth...

PW

[Normandy]

However, it's incorrect that the Galveston hurricane of 1900 was the last major one. If i'm not mistaken, we had Allen in 1980 and [i'm positive about this] Alicia in 1984. Although I wasn't alive for either.

Allen did not hit Houston, not anywhere close. Alicia brought 90 mph winds into downtown, which is a Cat 1 (Did you see any massive damage throughout houston proper???? I havn't). Claudette came close, but Houston only got TS winds. Jerry hit in 89, but supposedly it was so small Houston didn't even feel anything. Carla brought strong winds, but I HIGHLY doubt they cracked 100 mph throughout Houston proper. Any more majors that I am missing?

[CFL]

That was a very interesting analysis of statistics, Don. At the very least it should prompt Gulf Coast residents to make sure they are prepared.

[SouthernWx]

Alicia brought 90 mph winds into downtown, which is a Cat 1 (Did you see any massive damage throughout houston proper???? I havn't). Claudette came close, but Houston only got TS winds. Jerry hit in 89, but supposedly it was so small Houston didn't even feel anything. Carla brought strong winds, but I HIGHLY doubt they cracked 100 mph throughout Houston proper. Any more majors that I am missing?

The last major hurricane to make a direct hit on Houston occurred in September 1941. In August 1983, Alicia was a cat-3 direct hit on western and central portions of Galveston Island, but not the city of Galveston (which is located on the NE tip of Galveston Island)...where sustained winds reached 96 mph with a peak gust of 127 mph. Cat-3 winds also occurred in the San Luis Pass area (along the coast from near Freeport to a few miles SW of downtown Galveston...a swath about 30 miles wide).

The last direct cat-3+ impact I'm aware of on the city of Galveston was also the September 1941 hurricane. In 1961, hurricane Carla made landfall near Port O'Conner....over 100 miles SW of Galveston, but was an extremely large hurricane in size. At Galveston, sustained winds reached 90-100 mph with gusts to 120 mph...not to mention a 12' storm tide and a pre-dawn killer F4 tornado which tore through the downtown area and took 7 lives.

PW

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the very kind words, Perry.

Best wishes.

[dhweather]

MGC,

Although it might be an unpopular idea, I truly prefer that the season would see only "fish storms." Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be likely.

The evolving summer pattern seems to favor a GOM-season. Arlene is not the cause of such a season but merely a symptom of how things are evolving.

FWIW, since 1851, MS has experienced major hurricane conditions every 17.1 years. The last time MS saw a major hurricane was 1985 (Elena). The longest wait was almost 56 years, so it's really difficult to speculate just how due MS really might be.

Whether or not there are cycles where certain areas are favored for such storms remains to be seen. Dr. Gray et. al., appear to have found cycles at least with respect to Florida.

Gee, thanks Don.

[donsutherland1]

CFL,

I very much hope that Gulf residents are especially prepared. Although I'm not saying that a major hurricane will hit Florida, Floridians should be prepared, as well.

Since 1851, Florida has experienced major hurricane winds on 35 occasions. On three occasions, such conditions were experienced in at least two consecutive years:

1928-29
1944-45
1947-50

In addition, there were two periods with frequent major hurricane conditions:

1917-1936: 9 major hurricanes (3 were Category 4 storms; 1 was a category 5 hurricane)

1944-50: 7 major hurricanes

Hopefully, Florida will be spared this season.

[donsutherland1]

Dhweather,

Of course, sometimes there can be prolonged spells where a state doesn't experience major hurricane conditions. The longest stretch for any state that has experienced 3 or more such storms since 1851 is 106 years for Georgia. Georgia has not experienced major hurricane conditions since 1898.

[dhweather]

Dhweather,

Of course, sometimes there can be prolonged spells where a state doesn't experience major hurricane conditions. The longest stretch for any state that has experienced 3 or more such storms since 1851 is 106 years for Georgia. Georgia has not experienced major hurricane conditions since 1898.

Don - Indeed, if anyone has a false sense of security, it's Georgia coastal residents.

As for us, I suspect our time is near. We've dodged several bullets.
Louisiana and Texas are really about due as well - this might just be the year.

[cyclonaut]

CFL,

I very much hope that Gulf residents are especially prepared. Although I'm not saying that a major hurricane will hit Florida, Floridians should be prepared, as well.

Since 1851, Florida has experienced major hurricane winds on 35 occasions. On three occasions, such conditions were experienced in at least two consecutive years:

1928-29
1944-45
1947-50

In addition, there were two periods with frequent major hurricane conditions:

1917-1936: 9 major hurricanes (3 were Category 4 storms; 1 was a category 5 hurricane)

1944-50: 7 major hurricanes

Hopefully, Florida will be spared this season.

Hey Don;

You missed 1964-65

[frederic79]

Don,

I appreciate the research you did. I find doing the math fascinated even if solid conclusion may not be obvious. I remember posting last July some numbers I dug up about late starting seasons. Seasons in the last 35 years that started (named storms) August 1st or later recorded about 75% more Gulf strikes than those that began earlier. I said from that data I expected 4 to 5 named storms to strike the Gulf somewhere. We all know how that went. That said, I, like you, also think the Gulf is in for a tough year.

Two things, one you touched on, is the Bermuda high and actual historical frequency. I live on the MS coast. MS is a small spot on the large map of Gulf coastal areas. But Camille ('69), Frederic ('79), Elena ('85) and George ('98) were all direct hits for the MS coast. They all happened during my 38 years. What disturbs me now is that many more storms have teased us, brushed us, frightened us and made us leave (Ivan, '04) only to seem like the boy who cried wolf. I think this makes many of us complacent. But speaking of "due", Camille in 1969 was the last major storm to severely impact a large swath from around Slidell, LA to Gulfport, MS. That area has go 36 years without a major. I'm not certain about New Orleans, but I believe Betsy in '65 was the last major for them. My point is sooner or later the odds catch up the areas that have been extremely fortunate. Look at Florida last year.

For us in Pascagoula, it's been 20 years. (George in '98 was a Cat 2). If a Cat. 3-4 (or higher) hurricane made landfall anywhere from Waveland, MS to Grand Bay, AL (about 60 miles), we would experience significant damage in Pascagoula. I sort of think we are "overdue" myself.

Time will tell. Arlene prompted me to prepare for what could be. That's not a bad thing. I just hope others here don't let their guard down since she was another no-show. I'm choosing to be thankful for the no-shows.

[Wpwxguy]

Well check out the latest GFS for next weekend Sunday the 19th thru Tues. the 21st. Could be something.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml