Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard will love the fact the Sea-Tac got another .21 last hour and is now at .41 for the evening and .58 for the month.

Still... there is LONG way to go.

And the system in a couple days is headed too far south again. Seattle may not get much rain out of that one.

Beyond that... the pattern really flattens out and quiets down. There may not be much rain in Seattle in June after this coming week.

I think we will end up around 1.25 for the month and that would actually be below normal. Just a guess... but Snow_Wizzard has WAY over-estimated the rainfall with the past few storms.

[snow_wizzard]

No doubt that .21 in one hour helps the cause! It will be quite interesting to see how that storm plays out later in the week. It has the potential to be a big rain maker, it all depends on many factors. I think there is little doubt there will be much convective activity for several days when that big trough digs in. That stuff is anyones guess who will get hit with the big boomers. Tonight is certainly the first time this month that Sea - Tac has exceeded my expectations.

You have got to love these temps...upper 40s with pouring rain!

[snow_wizzard]

Very impressive! The south half of King County has made a killing on rain tonight. I have had a quarter inch so far, and things got started late here. A convergence zone with a true NW flow is always a good rain maker for King County south of Seattle. I like how much we have been seeing that pattern this year! I am going to have to research if C zones were commonly further south during the cold phase from 1946 - 75. It would not be surprising if that was the case.

[R-Dub]

Crappy day up there... but it will keep it green longer into the summer!!

We had numerous sun breaks and it felt pleasant unless we were directly under a dark cloud.

It has FINALLY started to rain here now.

Yeah TT it may stay a little greener up here, but I am dealing with a fungal disease on my greens that is 99% of the time just a winter problem. The disease loves cool damp conditions to get going, and right now my greens are on fire with it!! This is insane for almost mid June, currently 49 degrees and cloudy. We had a low of 46 this morning. If its not 90 grass baking degrees, its 50 disease growing degrees. Can't we have a nice medium of temps in the upper 60's-Low 70's with a little rain at night twice a week with sun during the day, that would be perfect grass growing weather!!!!!!!!

I AM SICK OF THIS CRAP!

[R-Dub]

Also places like Bend, Oregon had freeze warnings this morning.

[TT-SEA]

I am tired of it as well.

But remember... we must sacrifice all other seasons for the sake of a snowstorm in December.

Who cares about summer????? It only serves the purpose of teeing up a cold week or two in six months.

Spring sucks... Summer sucks... Fall sucks. We must live for winter in this mild maritime climate!!

The funny thing is... this month is not even going to help us statistically. It will end up slightly below normal for temperatures and slightly drier than normal. Try and find a solid connection with that one!!!

[AnthonyC]

It feels like the movie Groundhog's Day...every morning is exactly the same...cloudy, damp and cool...it's been like this for at least 10 days now.

Looking at latest satellite pics, a nice shortwave is barreling toward the WA coast...expect showers to increase once again tonight and tomorrow morning...I would say .25 inch of rain from this. As for the rest of the week, a deep upper level low forms off the OR coast and sits...how much impact will it have on WA? Too early to tell...but we'll will get wet.

No sign of any warm/dry weather for at least the next two weeks.

Snow_Wizzard,

I don't like analogs. Like I stated yesterday, many factors go against comparing analog years and future years...global warming, climate change, etc. Too many things go against it to make an accurate prediction.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

I think Snow_Wizzard is going to be shocked at how mild this coming winter ends up being.

My prediction is 3-5 days of cold weather at the end of December followed by a snowstorm that quickly melts.

Other than that... it will be warmer than normal.

[TT-SEA]

From the NWS this morning...

FRONT BARRELING IN OFFSHORE SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND BRING A LITTLE RAIN. SHOWERS MON BUT DRIER AT NIGHT. TUE STILL KIND OF TROFFY BUT WED HAS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A PATTERN WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY AND MAYBE EVEN SUNNY IN SEATTLE. NEXT SYSTEM DUE THU NIGHT WITH DEEP UPPER LOW FORMING OFFSHORE AND DROPPING INTO OREGON. NOT THAT WET FOR WASHINGTON BUT SHOWERY. BURKE

That is what I have been saying!!

Snow_Wizzard... it appears very likely that June will end up WAY below your hope of 2.5 inches and most likely BELOW NORMAL.

The last part of June looks dry with temperatures near normal.

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub and TT...Thank you for your hilarious posts this morning!

Sea - Tac hit the mother lode last night! They are now above normal for precip for the month to date. I would not bet one way or the other how wet this coming week will be. There is great potential. It is not as hard for us to have a cold winter as TT is making it sound. In our last cold phase Arctic outbreaks and snow were common!

I will bet anyone who wants to that this month will end up above normal for precip. We can't miss, with the total already this high. The 6z run showed us getting at least a half inch out of the front later in the week. Just the front!

[TT-SEA]

Above normal is not good enough. You need a very wet June.

And what a beautiful day. Sunshine now and 60 degrees already this morning.

[snow_wizzard]

There is probably no June on record that did not have a nice day here and there!

TT...I do not know how you can be so sure this winter is only going to have one little 3 - 5 day cold snap. There are so many signs this is going to be a good one, that I can hardly keep them straight. The SST forecasts are highly favorable for our cause. Many of the models are now showing that we will have a slightly minus anomoly but still within the envelope of neutral. That should be highly favorable for allowing blocking over the eastern Pacific, which leaves us cold. I have the same feeling about this that I had about 90 and 96. Those two years made it painfully obvious that we were in business, and this year is even more exciting, in my opinion. In 1990 I was so certain that the company I was working at printed a special section in the company newspaper about my predictions, and I was DEAD ON! I even had the timing down to the week, and that was printed weeks in advance. There was one guy who wanted to skin me alive because he lost about $10,000 worth of plants in that cold spell! People have got to learn that you cannot plant things that do not belong here, because you will get burned in the end!

[andycottle]

Taking a look at the latest GFS this afternoon...it appears that we`ll be in a zonal flow with little troughs riding on the Jet through about Friday of this week. Then the big story and big weather maker to watch is a 992MB low that developes several hundered miles from the Oregon coast by Saturday. This low is showing a height of 1320 to 1350M at 850MB and 546DM at 500MB. At first glance when viewing the 12z model loop, it looks like this could really be a good rain maker. But, checking the 12 to 24hr total precip amount for when it gets much closer to souther Oregon coast....the precip amount at face value looks to be only around .25". So while the folks down in the Oregon and Northen California will see the main enery from this system, we will likely see numorus showers, maybe a t-storm or two and possibly even the famous PSCZ showing it`s self once again. But I will not go out limb just yet.

In the longer range.... the troughing continues, which means that we`ll again be seeing showers at times and some what cool temps in the short and long term period.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Looks like ECMWF and GEM along with the Canadain models are also showing a deep trough off the WA/OR coast line by this Saturday. So as mentioned earlier, should be a showery and some what a cool weekend.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

We need to keep in mind that the GFS has been very stingy with its precip lately. It completley missed the boat on the generous totals in the late Friday through Saturday night time frame until the last minute on this last trough. I am betting at least a third to a half inch with that surface low later in the week. I believe that is being conservative.

[TT-SEA]

I would say .50 for the week is a good guess.

After that... it will be almost totally dry for the last 10 days of June.

We should end up around 1.25 for the month. We would need 1.44 to be normal.

It would take a miracle to get to 2.50 inches at this point. We need a very wet, juicy system with a tropical connection.

Not gonna happen.

[andycottle]

Tim,

Just for everones info... I`m at 1.38" of precip for this month so far here in Woodinvile. So looks like I`m over that rain amount that you had just mentioned.
-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I am referring specifically to Sea-Tac only.

[weather girl]

While I agree that in the scheme of things this June isn't all that unusual for June, it is cooler than the last couple of years, maybe signifying a pattern change. But then again, maybe not. Last June about this time, we started going into a stretch of above average temperatures. I kind of expected this last year with the Bermuda High in the east getting built up a little more than it did. I think El Nino got busy, though, and held it back.

Has anyone noticed that Alaska seems to be melting away? Same thing in Russia. Sad. Speaking of El Nino, it still might make a weak appearance a little later this year. If it doesn't, maybe we will have the type of winter snow_wizzard sees. But if it does, all bets are off.

59 cloudy degrees in Salem. We've had 1.27 inches in the rain gage. That puts us about .20 from our normal June precipitation total.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS and other models continue to be rather sparse with the rain this week as the upper low goes south.

The last time this happened (one week ago)... Sea-Tac only got .13 in three days!! Remember?? How quickly we forget!!

This is not a favorable pattern for heavy rain around Seattle. Maybe Covington will get a good shower again.

After that... it continues to look mostly dry the rest of June.

We may get lucky and Sea-Tac could receive some good rain... but it will likely be under .50 for the storm.

Below normal rainfall for June is very likely. You have to admit that goes directly against your theory that this will be a very wet June (2.50+ inches). Most places in Western Washington should end below normal for rainfall.

That does not correlate well with a cold winter. Which makes sense since one is not coming!!