GFS Forecast A Cape Verde System

[HURAKAN]

[Vortex]

Very interesting...given the sst anomally in that region I wouldn't be totally suprised. Either way looks to be an interesting week in the tropics and that sure is not said often in June.

[Derek Ortt]

the CV is often very active in June due to the monsoon trough. QS passes suggest that TC formation may be common there as many waves and the couple of classified depressions had TS winds on the QS

However, once they leave the monsoon trough and move into the central Atlantic the waves/depressions/storms then weaken and dissipate

[cyclonaut]

Whether it develops or not,the fact that the models are hinting at development here & there so early tells me this season is going to be a wild ride.

Put on your seat belts & hold on tight!

[Anonymous]

Its only June and would be extremely rare imho to get a Cape Verde system this early.

June origins
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_jun.htm

July Origins
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_jul.htm

AUG origins
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_aug.htm

[skysummit]

:eek:

Its only June and would be extremely rare imho to get a Cape Verde system this early.

I believe everyone knows that...it's just the "possiblity" of one actually forming, and the models actually hinting that something may be in the future.
The way this season is looking right now, we may still be tracking storms in early January!

[wxcrazytwo]

:eek:

Its only June and would be extremely rare imho to get a Cape Verde system this early.

June origins
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_jun.htm

July Origins
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_jul.htm

AUG origins
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_aug.htm

you gotta admit though, they have been spitting off the CV quite frequently..

[HURAKAN]

For everything in life, there is always a first time, ask Brasil about it!

[Hyperstorm]

Not only that, what I find more disturbing is that it also builds the Azores High powerfully and... while it does so a ridge tries to get itself established over the eastern United States. Unfortunately, if we in fact see development (not likely, but the possibility is there) the system will have NO choice, but to follow a path WESTWARD toward the Americas...

Here we go again.......

[canegrl04]

The odds maybe against a CV storm forming in June,but tat doesn't mean it CAN'T happen

[Anonymous]

I was able to find one storm that formed in June in the Eastern Atlantic.... Tropical storm Ana formed at 45W on June 19, 1979 and came through the islands before dissapating in the E Caribbean.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Now if this is an anomoly or sign of things to come, 1979 was a bad year for US landfalls... Especially the Gulf and Florida

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[HURAKAN]

The last tropical system to develop in June in the central Atlantic was TD #2 in 2003.

[Brent]

Not only that, what I find more disturbing is that it also builds the Azores High powerfully and... while it does so a ridge tries to get itself established over the eastern United States. Unfortunately, if we in fact see development (not likely, but the possibility is there) the system will have NO choice, but to follow a path WESTWARD toward the Americas...

Here we go again.......

I've got a feeling August and September are going to be nonstop activity once again... once one storm hits the U.S.(or Mexico) another one or two will already be moving westward.

[Brent]

I was able to find one storm that formed in June in the Eastern Atlantic.... Tropical storm Ana formed at 45W on June 19, 1979 and came through the islands before dissapating in the E Caribbean.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Now if this is an anomoly or sign of things to come, 1979 was a bad year for US landfalls... Especially the Gulf and Florida

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Looks like there was a strong ridge that year that prevented recurvature.

All the CV storms followed roughly the same track.

The islands were CREAMED that year as well(Cuba/Hispanola/PR)

[Lowpressure]

GFS also keeps this potential system on a pretty much westward track. I would tend to agree here. Depression forms then fades due to lack of support and hostile upper winds in the central basin.

[Aquawind]

Nice blob alright...

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... T051630920

Paul

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Like derek ortt said that weak tropical storms or depression form out there all the time. But just never make it past the trough.

[HURAKAN]

Nice blob alright...

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... T051630920

Paul

Super nice!

[cycloneye]

Interesting feature that this model shows but at the last grafic at 240 hours it loses the low as it moves NW away from the islands.But let's see in future runs and look for the trend to continue about having a low in the eastern atlantic.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC GFS at 144 hours.Note the low in the Atlantic and also the ridge is not too strong.



18 UTC GFS at 168 hours.No big changes.



18 UTC GFS at 192 hours.Note that the low is starting to lose some steam and it moves more north in latitud following the weakness caused by weak ridge.



18 UTC GFS at 228 hours.Low moves well away from the islands as ridge continues weak.



18 UTC GFS at 288 hours.Somewhat more strong but a fish.

The bottomline is that we have to continue to watch the trends to see where they will go in next runs but so far these runs shows a low in the eastern atlantic but going fish as the Azores High is not too strong.