ARLENE Final Advisory

[*StOrmsPr*]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 120229
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...ARLENE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING STILL A THREAT...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM
TRACK...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA.

COASTAL WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...32.2 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT41 KNHC 120240
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

ARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND
OVER WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE AND RADAR
SIGNATURES HAVE IMPROVED. IN FACT...ARLENE LOOKS BETTER NOW THAN IT
DID OVER WATER DURING MOST OF ITS LIFETIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KT IS BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AND SURROUNDING
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AND ARLENE
COULD EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON ARLENE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH...
BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 32.2N 87.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
12HR VT 12/1200Z 34.5N 87.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 13/0000Z 37.9N 87.2W 15 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 13/1200ZT...DISSIPATED INLAND

[Brent]

Goodbye Arlene. See you in 2011. Nice warmup storm to get me back into the pattern of waiting for advisories and recon data, etc, etc. Not too terrible either for people in the path.

Have gotten some gusty winds this evening and a little rain(lot more early this morning before daybreak), but nowhere near Ivan or Frances last year.

[GalvestonDuck]

[Brent]

Things are defintely wrapping up...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

.UPDATE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
CURRENT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AROUND 25 WITH GUST TO 35 AND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. CURRENT ONE HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE
AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DALLAS COUNTY. FEEL
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALONG THE CORE TRACK
WHICH IS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.

FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65, RAINFALL AND WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRENT ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

VERY FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGE TONIGHT. A FEW TREES HERE AND THERE AS
WELL AS A COUPLE OF FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTINGS. ALSO, THE SUCARNOOCHEE,
TOMBIGBEE, AND PARTS OF THE WARRIOR RIVER ARE HAVING SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES. SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR THESE DETAILS.

SO, IN SUMMARY, WILL DROP WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-65.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH 7 AM. WIND ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&

[Andrew92]

Arlene....



See ya in 2011! We'll miss you......NOT

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

----> ARLENE AND DRY AIR!

SEE YOU IN 2011, BY THE WAY, WHEN WILL BE THE TIME YOU DECIDE TO RETIRE? THIS HAS BEEN YOUR 9TH APPEARANCE, SHOULDN'T YOU BE THINKING ABOUT THE RETIREMENT PLANS? REMEMBER, THE SOCIAL SECURITY IS IN A CHAOS!

[The Big Dog]

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH...
BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...SUNDAY.

Ahhh, not over yet! For us diehard trackers out there, there's still a good 2 or 3 days of HPC bulletins.

[Brent]

Goodbye Arlene. See you in 2011. Nice warmup storm to get me back into the pattern of waiting for advisories and recon data, etc, etc. Not too terrible either for people in the path.

Have gotten some gusty winds this evening and a little rain(lot more early this morning before daybreak), but nowhere near Ivan or Frances last year.

It'd be crazy amazing if Arlene did an Ivan and part of it left the main circulation, got back into the Atlantic, then Gulf, then into Texas..lol...
It is supposed to go back into the Atlantic...in a few days...

Kevin Cho

This will dissipate, unlike Ivan.

[dhweather]

:yesno: ----> ARLENE AND DRY AIR!

SEE YOU IN 2011, BY THE WAY, WHEN WILL BE THE TIME YOU DECIDE TO RETIRE? THIS HAS BEEN YOUR 9TH APPEARANCE, SHOULDN'T YOU BE THINKING ABOUT THE RETIREMENT PLANS? REMEMBER, THE SOCIAL SECURITY IS IN A CHAOS!

boy, ain't that the truth.

[Swimdude]

Yes, this one will dissipate. The water temperature is so cold where it's supposed to emerge into the Atlantic that the former cloud mass of Arlene will disappear either way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

She is going to see Canada

She is almost to the great lakes.

Here she is

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kind.shtml

[Andrew92]

Let me say for the record.....

I do NOT want to be the one welcoming Arlene into the great state of Michigan. She is not welcome in the Wolverine State. Not like she'll get stronger if she swims in Lake Michigan, that water is in the 60's and 70's.

And BTW, she's now 46 years old. First used in 1959. Wanna make bets on how old she lives to be?

-Andrew92

[Scorpion]

Goodbye Arlene. Even though you kind of messed up my cruise vacation it was interesting being in a TS at sea. Very cool experience.

[cyclonaut]

See ya Arlene,you brought some gusty,rainy weather my way & got my senses sharpened for what's going to be quite a season!

Nice early wake up call...

OK..

NEXT!