1030PM TWO--- More concentrated....Pressures falling

[Anonymous]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
EVENING ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA...AND NOAA BUOY
REPORTS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD AND IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[dhweather]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
EVENING ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA...AND NOAA BUOY
REPORTS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD AND IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.




That ULL is VERY LARGE.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[cyclonaut]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
EVENING ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA...AND NOAA BUOY
REPORTS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD AND IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.




That ULL is VERY LARGE.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting. In the shear in the area is under 10 knots. The area north of 20 north is where the shear is.

[Brent]

Interesting.

[rainstorm]

easy call on this one, due to the monsson trough

[Anonymous]

easy call on this one, due to the monsson trough

So whats your call rainstorm? Yay or Nay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Good job rainstorm. Lets see if this develops.

[Derek Ortt]

I checked the same bouy and the pressures had actually started to rise slightly (tendency was a .05 in rise as of 2 hours ago... which leads me to believe that the earlier falls were diurnal)

That said, they are VERY low for the area and I would not be surprised to see another depression within the next 24-48 hours

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'll give it a 60% chance of forming and a 40% chance of affecting the US--Leaning toward S Fla headed NE

[HURAKAN]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'll give it a 60% chance of forming and a 40% chance of affecting the US--Leaning toward S Fla headed NE

BRING IT ON!

WAIT, DIDN'T SOMEONE LOST AN ELECTION WITH THIS SLOGAN!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wonder when the invest will be posted.

[dhweather]

Yeah, the National Association of Goat Worshipers.

[Scorpion]

On the cruise ship I was on they have a weather report every 10 minutes or so and I noticed that the pressures in the Caribbean are consistently below 1010 mb, in fact much of the time they were about 1006-1008 mb(except in Arlene where it was 1003 mb). Not sure what this means but the pressures are pretty low, ususally I would associate those pressures with TD's.

[Anonymous]

On the cruise ship I was on they have a weather report every 10 minutes or so and I noticed that the pressures in the Caribbean are consistently below 1010 mb, in fact much of the time they were about 1006-1008 mb(except in Arlene where it was 1003 mb). Not sure what this means but the pressures are pretty low, ususally I would associate those pressures with TD's.

They have been low for a while which to me means, it wont take much to get a TD-though they are low over a broad area and there isnt any areas of high pressure to make any one area of pressure in the carib low--so does this still increase the chances??? You can have a TC develop in the middle of an area of High pressure and it could be like a 1000MB Hurricane if the pressures around it are high enough. We saw this a couple years ago.

[HURAKAN]

On the cruise ship I was on they have a weather report every 10 minutes or so and I noticed that the pressures in the Caribbean are consistently below 1010 mb, in fact much of the time they were about 1006-1008 mb(except in Arlene where it was 1003 mb). Not sure what this means but the pressures are pretty low, ususally I would associate those pressures with TD's.

They have been low for a while which to me means, it wont take much to get a TD-though they are low over a broad area and there isnt any areas of high pressure to make any one area of pressure in the carib low--so does this still increase the chances??? You can have a TC develop in the middle of an area of High pressure and it could be like a 1000MB Hurricane if the pressures around it are high enough.

Like Danny in 2003.

[Anonymous]

On the cruise ship I was on they have a weather report every 10 minutes or so and I noticed that the pressures in the Caribbean are consistently below 1010 mb, in fact much of the time they were about 1006-1008 mb(except in Arlene where it was 1003 mb). Not sure what this means but the pressures are pretty low, ususally I would associate those pressures with TD's.

They have been low for a while which to me means, it wont take much to get a TD-though they are low over a broad area and there isnt any areas of high pressure to make any one area of pressure in the carib low--so does this still increase the chances??? You can have a TC develop in the middle of an area of High pressure and it could be like a 1000MB Hurricane if the pressures around it are high enough.

Like Danny in 2003.

Thats the one I am thinking of... 1005mb Hurricane Thanks
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2003H/index.html

Code: Select all

10  39.60  -52.70 07/18/21Z   65  1006 HURRICANE-1
 11  40.50  -50.90 07/19/03Z   65  1005 HURRICANE-1
 12  41.40  -49.10 07/19/09Z   65  1005 HURRICANE-1
 13  42.40  -46.80 07/19/15Z   65  1005 HURRICANE-1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would think if the pressures are low=warmer then normal water. Which means tropical cyclones are going to form very fast. In might even become powerful.


I'm waiting for the invest.

[corpusbreeze]

I'm impressed with all the moisture from the west Caribbean to the central Atlantic. Something has got to pop.

[HURAKAN]

Date: 18-21 NOV 1986
Hurricane FRANCES
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 22.80 -62.80 11/18/18Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 23.50 -62.90 11/19/00Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 23.90 -62.90 11/19/06Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
4 24.40 -62.80 11/19/12Z 40 1006 TROPICAL STORM
5 24.80 -62.70 11/19/18Z 50 1004 TROPICAL STORM
6 25.80 -62.10 11/20/00Z 55 1002 TROPICAL STORM
7 27.00 -61.00 11/20/06Z 65 1001 HURRICANE-1
8 27.80 -59.60 11/20/12Z 75 1000 HURRICANE-1
9 28.50 -58.70 11/20/18Z 75 1000 HURRICANE-1
10 29.10 -58.20 11/21/00Z 70 1001 HURRICANE-1
11 29.70 -58.00 11/21/06Z 65 1002 HURRICANE-1
12 30.40 -57.90 11/21/12Z 55 1003 TROPICAL STORM
13 31.10 -57.90 11/21/18Z 45 1005 TROPICAL STORM

Look at Frances, 1986, a hurricane with winds around 85 mph and its central pressure remained at 1000 mb, unbelievable.