NOGAPS Unites GFS with Caribbean System, Florida Watch Out!

[HURAKAN]

NOGAPS forecasts a low pressure system from the Caribbean Sea to cross Western Cuba and it organizes passing over South Florida and getting stronger over the Western Atlantic Ocean. Watch the loop to see it. This gets more interesting by the minute!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005061300

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

About time the models start jumping on.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Appears to be a weak system at this moment.

[Derek Ortt]

that looks to be all of 20KT from that system in florida.

[Anonymous]

that looks to be all of 20KT from that system in florida.

Boy, this is so dejavuish from last weekend but... At least the NOGAPS is picking up on 'something' albeit weak. I said last week there was a broad area of low pressure forecasted by models and someone came back and said--thats a very broad low. We all know what happenned as arlene formed and did hit. I say nogaps is on to something

[jlauderdal]

NOGAPS forecasts a low pressure system from the Caribbean Sea to cross Western Cuba and it organizes passing over South Florida and getting stronger over the Western Atlantic Ocean. Watch the loop to see it. This gets more interesting by the minute!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005061300

I wouldnt recommend putting shutters up yet based on that loop.

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 130632
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

...A COUPLE OF DRIER DAYS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER OUR NRN
COUNTIES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH...WITH
THE GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER HIGH FORMING IN THE GULF. THIS HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MEANS
SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALOFT...HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SINK TOWARDS THE AREA...TO A
POSITION OVER THE NRN FA TUE. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN AS A TROUGH
CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES DIGS SOUTH.

GOES SOUNDER IMAGE INDICATES A TAIL OF MOISTURE...RELATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ARLENE...OVER OUR CWA IS GETTING NARROWER. DRY AIR IS
PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST AND SHUD ALLOW AT LEAST ONE MORE TROPICAL
DAY. GFS SHIFTS THE AXIS OF THE PLUME TO NE TO SW...WITH THE NRN
FA STAYING IN THE MORE TROPICAL AIR. NAM IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION...
BUT KEEPS THE MOISTURE NW OF THE FA. WILL GO WITH BEST POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS UP NORTH WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHUD
STAY THRU TODAY. 500MB TEMPS STAY VERY WARM...AROUND -3 OR -4 C...
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO NOT EXPECTING HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP. SHUD SEE A QUICK WARM UP TO MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AS THE HIGH ALOFT PUSHES OVER THE FA AND THE DRIER AIR STARTS
TO FILTER IN.

WITH THE WEAK FLOW TUE AS THE SECOND HI TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE
GULF...WILL GO WITH ANOTHER DAY IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT LOWER POPS
ACCORDING TO LIGHTNING CLIMO. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES UP NORTH IN
CASE THE DEEPER MOISTURE STICKS AROUND. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER...WITH VALUES POSSIBLY GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
CENTRAL AND SRN INTERIOR. NOT MUCH RELIEF...BUT EVERY BIT HELPS
DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS.

FOR WED...LOWERING HEIGHTS STAY JUST FAR ENUF NORTH TO KEEP THE FA
IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...SO WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL POPS AND WARM TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. WED NIGHT/THURS WILL PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF UNCOMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY WED NIGHT INTO THURS
AS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ALLOW A WEAKENING MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO EDGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURS
NIGHT/FRI. THOUGH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB OR SO WILL CAP THINGS
OFF AND KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO ISOLD ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
SHORELINE AND EASTERN GULF WED NIGHT. HAVE LEFT CLIMO PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY BUT BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SKY COVER WHICH SHOULD
AVERAGE OUT TO THE TYPICAL PARTLY CLOUDY.

GFS/DGEX HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SLUG OF DRIER AIR INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE
PCPN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL SOME 3-6
DEGREES BRINGING PERHAPS SOME MID 60S VALUES TO INLAND LOCATIONS.
EARLY MORNING READINGS WILL BE A TAD MORE COMFORTABLE AS WELL
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME KIND OF DISTURBED
WEATHER DEVELOPING NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF/NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. UNLIKE ARLENE'S PRECURSOR...THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE
SYNOPTIC IN NATURE AS FAIRLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH EDGES SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AN EVENTUAL INCREASE IN S TO SW FLOW
OFF THE SURFACE. IN ANY CASE...WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE
INCLEMENT WEATHER IN ABOUT A WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP PCPN
AND CLOUDS JUST A BIT AND TAKEN DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS ON THE COASTAL WATERS...UNLESS YOU ARE LOOKING
FOR A STRONG WIND TO SAIL WITH. EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEAS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE DRIER AIR TUE...STILL ONLY EXPECTING RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 40 PCT RANGE. KBDI'S ARE VERY LOW...SO NO
PROBLEMS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE DRIER WX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 74 92 76 / 40 20 20 20
FMY 92 74 93 75 / 40 20 20 20
GIF 92 74 94 75 / 30 20 20 20
SRQ 89 74 90 74 / 40 20 20 20
BKV 90 71 92 71 / 50 20 30 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM....BSG

[Scorpion]

Not more rain ugh. Hopefully this will hit as a TS or something so it will be more interesting.