Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Your usiing the -removed- tool. Yeah keep on calling me a wonderful forecaster!!! Becaue the person that calls some one else a wonderful forecaster is normally one there selfs.
That made no sense.
There seems to be the first signs of a spin
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Brent
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Brent wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Quickscat is not always usebale. It has messed many a cyclone cirualtion.
Fine... you can pay for a recon plane to go out there and find nothing.
What is your problem I never said a recon plane was needed?
How else are you going to find a surface circulation out there??? Buoys don't support it...
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#neversummer
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Derecho wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
I say 25 percent chance for a depression over the next 48 hours.
I say 10 percent chance of Bret
But I think that the enviroment will be partly favable... But with no model support I'm not ready to jump the gun.
Well, of the 80 or so named storms in June in the Atlantic since 1851, precisely ONE of them made Category 4.
So, if you give it a 25% chance of making named storm, perhaps it would be more accurate to give it a .3% chance of Bret.
Having followed the tropics for a decade, the next time a storm compared to some other storm ends up anything like that other storm will basically be the first time.
A lot of storms have formed in each of the various areas storms can form; the ridiculous practice of proclaiming each wave, blob, depression, TS in each of these areas as the next (insert the strongest or close to the strongest storm to form anywhere remotely near that area) is pretty misleading.
Derek ortt did say this had a chance. In with the nhc saying it could develop slowly I'm going to keep watching it. Why say I'm misleading for keeping track of a possible system. You make no sense?
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Trader Ron
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Brent wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Brent wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Quickscat is not always usebale. It has messed many a cyclone cirualtion.
Fine... you can pay for a recon plane to go out there and find nothing.
What is your problem I never said a recon plane was needed?
How else are you going to find a surface circulation out there??? Buoys don't support it...
I give up I'm lossing my mind. I quite I'm outta here!!!
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Hyperstorm
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The system is becoming BETTER organized by the hour as we start to see the mid-level circulation becoming tighter which would support a surface center to form within the next 12-24 hours at the most. This one definitely is a good candidate for formation, regardless it is June or July or August. The point here is that the system is getting its act together gradually and wouldn't be surprised to see depression formation as soon as it acquires its surface center.
The UL system north of the islands is starting to move away towards the NE (as forecast), although the base of the trough might try to make it toward the Caribbean system. If it does NOT organize fast enough, it might get squeezed out toward the NE. If it continues to organize at its current pace, the system might feel its effects and start to move toward the NE and strike Hispaniola.
Interestingly, the models had this general idea since the beginning and even now there are signs of NE movement, at least temporarily...
The UL system north of the islands is starting to move away towards the NE (as forecast), although the base of the trough might try to make it toward the Caribbean system. If it does NOT organize fast enough, it might get squeezed out toward the NE. If it continues to organize at its current pace, the system might feel its effects and start to move toward the NE and strike Hispaniola.
Interestingly, the models had this general idea since the beginning and even now there are signs of NE movement, at least temporarily...
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skysummit
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I don't get it.....these people are beginning to dog one another over the same topic that we're all on here for? Aren't we all tropical fanatics??? Isn't that why we spend the time every day to come on here and get information and post our comments? I know I would love to see some type of storm every day of the season.....just like a storm chaser would love to film a tornado every day of the severe weather season. No one wishes damage, injury or death to anyone. If we do get land threatening storms, I'm sure everyone has prayers within themselves for those who are threatened and wish them nothing but the best.
Now back onto the topic.....
This area is sure looking good to me this morning. Convection is beginning to fire up what looks to be just to the west of the circulation. I say this will be a depression in the next 36 - 48 hours.
Now back onto the topic.....
This area is sure looking good to me this morning. Convection is beginning to fire up what looks to be just to the west of the circulation. I say this will be a depression in the next 36 - 48 hours.
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Derek Ortt wrote:there is absolutely no closed low.
I think I am speaking for <b>MANY</b> coastal residents with the following statement (maybe not many on the board here, but many at large
<b>MATT, STOP CHEERING FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT! IT ONLY BRINGS ABOUT MORE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION, WHICH WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF</b>
I'm sorry, I tried to let this go, but come on Derek..... This is what we are here for! I understand your frustration of storms hitting Florida, but I'll say what I say to everyone, move away from the coast?!?!?!?
I respect your degree and I listen to your posts in earnest, but as a member of this board with "met" status, I think your outlashing at a member simply enjoying his hobby is unbecoming, and personally I would be asking for an appology from you. You seem to imply that Matt's (or anyones for that matter) thoughts or observations or wishes about Hurricanes somehow control death and destruction. Anyway, I wasn't surprised to see the (yearly) debate about liking storms vs. the destruction they cause.....I was more surprised by who started it.....
cheers
loon
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vbhoutex
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There is a definite mid level spin out there and convection is beginning to build in the area of that spin. I must agree that the next 12-24 hours will be very telling with this system. I am not even referring to models or their take on it attm. I am only looking at the sat loops. About 4 more hours of vis sat loop will give us a much better picture of what is happening.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Hyperstorm wrote:The system is becoming BETTER organized by the hour as we start to see the mid-level circulation becoming tighter which would support a surface center to form within the next 12-24 hours at the most. This one definitely is a good candidate for formation, regardless it is June or July or August. The point here is that the system is getting its act together gradually and wouldn't be surprised to see depression formation as soon as it acquires its surface center.
The UL system north of the islands is starting to move away towards the NE (as forecast), although the base of the trough might try to make it toward the Caribbean system. If it does NOT organize fast enough, it might get squeezed out toward the NE. If it continues to organize at its current pace, the system might feel its effects and start to move toward the NE and strike Hispaniola.
Interestingly, the models had this general idea since the beginning and even now there are signs of NE movement, at least temporarily...
Thats all I been trying to say with this thread that we have something developing. Why O why is things coming down so hard for me this morning.
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Stormcenter
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vbhoutex wrote:There is a definite mid level spin out there and convection is beginning to build in the area of that spin. I must agree that the next 12-24 hours will be very telling with this system. I am not even referring to models or their take on it attm. I am only looking at the sat loops. About 4 more hours of vis sat loop will give us a much better picture of what is happening.
Thank you vbhoutex for the information.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
vbhoutex wrote:There is a definite mid level spin out there and convection is beginning to build in the area of that spin. I must agree that the next 12-24 hours will be very telling with this system. I am not even referring to models or their take on it attm. I am only looking at the sat loops. About 4 more hours of vis sat loop will give us a much better picture of what is happening.
Thats what I think to Vbhoutex...
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skysummit wrote:I don't get it.....these people are beginning to dog one another over the same topic that we're all on here for? Aren't we all tropical fanatics??? Isn't that why we spend the time every day to come on here and get information and post our comments? I know I would love to see some type of storm every day of the season.....just like a storm chaser would love to film a tornado every day of the severe weather season. No one wishes damage, injury or death to anyone. If we do get land threatening storms, I'm sure everyone has prayers within themselves for those who are threatened and wish them nothing but the best.
This is one of the most well-thought out and appropriate posts I have read. This back-biting has got to stop if we are going to make it through the entire season. Having gone through 3 of the hurricanes that struck Florida last year and still sitting with a partial roof, broken fence and a pool that is breaking apart and falling into a storm-enhanced drainage ditch, I CERTAINLY do not wish any more hurricanes to make their way landward. That said, I STILL hop on this board (as well as the NHC site), looking eagerly for signs of the next developing system. What makes strom chasers and tropical trackers tick? Who knows...but I think most can agree it is simply "in the blood". We wait 6 months of the year for hurricane season so we can plot away and watch these beautiful, but deadly storms in their inevitable march across the tropical seas. Does this make us irresponsible or doomsayers? I don't think so.
--Lou
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