6/13/2005 11:30AM TWO

#1 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:10 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

gkrangers · #2 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:12 am

It seems to me that the TPC does not elaborate much on disturbances like this. In the office they are probably behaving like us...but in the public statements they have to be conservative and calm.

Ola · #3 Postby **Ola** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:31 am

gkrangers wrote: In the office they are probably behaving like us...

rofl

I can imagine

"Stweart, comon stop -removed- this to come to Florida. Stop making things up, look at the dam water vapor loop"

"Davila, why are you so pessimistic, if it was up to you, every season would be a dud."

gkrangers · #4 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:34 am

They probably wet themselves when Andrew hit them headon.

#5 Postby **melhow** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:37 am

gkrangers wrote:They probably wet themselves when Andrew hit them headon.

Yes, they probably did...

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:43 am

Of course, there were the "animated discussions" about Ivan's remnants.

IT'S IVAN

NO IT IS NOT

YES IT IS

I'M TELLING DAD!!!!!

Derecho · #7 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:56 am

Noticed over the years that people like to imagine NHC in some sort of panic or frenzy or whatever.

Most people there have been there forever.

I suspect you'd find the place shockingly calm and professional even if a Cat 5 was 20 miles away from downtown Miami.

#8 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:24 am

Max Mayfield is alway's calm when he's interviewed on TV.

All of them are true professionals.

gkrangers · #9 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:34 am

Doesn't mean they don't get excited about storms or potential storms tho...

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:55 am

avila gets most excited about a tropical cyclone. I have no clue as to where the idea regarding him not wanting storms comes from. It is very well known, at least within the community, that he absolutely loves a major hurricane

wxcrazytwo · #11 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:avila gets most excited about a tropical cyclone. I have no clue as to where the idea regarding him not wanting storms comes from. It is very well known, at least within the community, that he absolutely loves a major hurricane

There is nothing wrong with loving your job. Shoot when I lived in Cali, I wanted there to be a major quake. It is just the thrill of going through it and going through the process of aftershocks in all.

Derek Ortt · #12 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:17 pm

starting to look like development will not occur.

As I said the next 12 hours would be criticial about 12 ago. Well, during that time, the trough has continued to dig, prehaps receiving a re-enforcement from the north.

The chances of development are decreasing at the present time

6/13/2005 11:30AM TWO

6/13/2005 11:30AM TWO

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