Afternoon Fla Discussions....
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html
NWS Melbourne...
SAT-MON...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERSISTENCE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION...WITH
SOME SUGGESTION THAT A DISTINCT TROPICAL LOW COULD TAKE SHAPE
FROM WITHIN THE GENERAL LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/GYRE THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERAL LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE ENHANCED NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS BY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND WILL BRIEFLY FRESHEN TO NEAR 15 KT OFFSHORE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY DISSIPATES TO THE NORTH AND PRESSSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES MINIMAL. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AND POSSIBLE LOW
CENTER...WILL INDICATE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED DIURNAL
POPS...INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY/MONDAY. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
NWS Key West...
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINING QUITE LOW HERE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FLORIDA SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A CLOUD LINE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THURSDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO PULL THE LOW
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS...BUT ON THURSDAY...THE LATEST 12Z
NAM IS NOW PULLING THE BROAD LOW FROM THE WEST CARIBBEAN RIGHT TO
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH CERTAINLY WOULD LEAD TO A BREEZIER
AND WETTER SCENARIO ON THURSDAY.
NWS Tallahassee...
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST AFTER LOCAL FROPA, AND WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND PENINSULA ON MON. SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE
N SIDE OF THE FRONT, POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY PRECLUDES REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY OVER OUR
SERN ZONES. N AND W OF THE SERN BIG BEND ZONES, WE WILL USE SILENT
10S FOR THU AND FRI. FOR SAT, A WAVE WILL FORM ON THE WRN END OF THE
FRONT, ALLOWING IT TO DRIFT NWD AGAIN, SO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
USED. FOR SUN AND MON, LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED, ALTHOUGH THE
JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE AS FAR SW
AS THE LAST COUPLE GFS RUNS HAVE INDICATED. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE
MODEL ACTUALLY SHOWS ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING PULLED NWD BY
THIS LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF ON MON. LET'S HOPE THIS DOESN'T COME TO
PASS.
