6/13/2005 5PM TWO - possible recon tomorrow

[dhweather]

ABNT20 KNHC 132119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND REPORTS FROM TWO NOAA BUOYS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL AND ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL IN THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[yoda]

Will be very interesting to see...

[weatherwindow]

just an observation....the winds at 42058(15n 75w) have been slowly veering from east to southeast on the east side of the disturbance....perhaps an incipient circulation??????...............rich

[canegrl04]

Wouldn't that be unbelievable if two more storms formed this month?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is my thinking...The convection has formed over the center/MLC...In which case it has become better oreganized. But a trough is moving down from the north. With a reinforcement coming off the east coast. If it doe's not dig any more then the chance is there we could get a tropical storm out of this. But if trough digs then by later this afternoon it will go poof!

Here is the two tracks it could take.

1# It moves up the back side kind of like the nogaps model...Maybe a threat to florida. Which means if the trough doe's not dig to much more.

2# The trough digs to the west in the system takes off to the northeast...


What ever happens we will see

[Thunder44]

Plane should be out there by 4pm tomorrow.

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 132100 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0500 PM EDT MON 13 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-017 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE.........ADDED
A. 14/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 14/1500Z
D. 16.0N 76.5W
E. 14/1330Z TO 15/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN FIXES AT 15/12Z IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

[jabber]

If its still active by the AM, I say we have a chance to get somting started. Interesting data from Bouy number 42058 , Pressures dropping and wind speeds picking up. Take a look:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[air360]

I like that graphic...thanks jabber

[hurricanefreak1988]

Man! We're looking at a 2-1 score only 2 weeks into the season! Take that, E-Pac!

[weatherwindow]

If its still active by the AM, I say we have a chance to get somting started. Interesting data from Bouy number 42058 , Pressures dropping and wind speeds picking up. Take a look:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

................excellent graphic...allows you to factor out the diurnal variation which has always tended to confuse the issue for me.......................rich

[Brent]

WOW

[air360]

haha you always crack me up Brent....way to get to the point..."wow"...sure says it all...haha

[Brent]

I said WOW because I hadn't looked at the satellite in 3 hours:

[gkrangers]

Looks more impressive than Arlene eh?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say wow to because the center/MLC is right under that red/black. I think it is doing very good for a system that has to deal with 20 knot shear. Lets see what happens.

[air360]

***Jeopardy Music***

[HURAKAN]

Looks more impressive than Arlene eh?

Except for Grace, and probably Ana, all other systems looked better than Arlene!!!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They looked better then Arlene all but except the last 12 hours of her.

[Brent]

Looks more impressive than Arlene eh?

This isn't even close. Even if the center is exposed, the convection is VERY impressive.

[Normandy]

I still dont see any rotation with this...it just looks like a bunch of thunderstorms getting sheared.