(92L) 13/18Z NHC Models (with image!)

#1 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:16 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION     INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050613  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050613  1800   050614  0600   050614  1800   050615  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.0N  75.5W   16.7N  75.9W   18.8N  76.2W   21.1N  76.2W
  BAMM    15.0N  75.5W   16.4N  76.4W   18.1N  77.2W   19.8N  77.7W
  A98E    15.0N  75.5W   15.7N  75.9W   16.7N  76.3W   18.4N  76.1W
  LBAR    15.0N  75.5W   16.4N  75.9W   18.5N  76.1W   20.6N  75.7W
  SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          27KTS          31KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          23KTS          30KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050615  1800   050616  1800   050617  1800   050618  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    23.3N  76.0W   27.4N  73.5W   32.9N  67.8W   39.9N  60.1W
  BAMM    21.6N  77.8W   24.7N  75.1W   28.0N  69.2W   31.1N  65.1W
  A98E    19.5N  76.1W   20.5N  74.6W   21.9N  72.8W   24.0N  70.8W
  LBAR    22.2N  74.6W   24.1N  70.2W   25.9N  65.9W   28.1N  64.5W
  SHIP        36KTS          41KTS          41KTS          35KTS
  DSHP        28KTS          36KTS          36KTS          30KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  15.0N LONCUR =  75.5W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
  LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  75.0W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
  LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 =  74.6W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   15KT
  CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:20 pm

Looks like Hispanola and then a fish.

Derek Ortt · #3 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:23 pm

that would be devastating as it would move right into Haiti

May initially make it slightly west, but not much farther than Jamaica

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:25 pm

Brent wrote:Looks like Hispanola and then a fish.

That is not the right model..that is from Last year note the dates are the 15th of whater month it was last run...Also, 91L was used last week. I been checking for 91L for days and it hasnt changed

INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050613 1800 UTC

This is 92L and it dont seem to be updated yet either...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

#5 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:29 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:
Brent wrote:Looks like Hispanola and then a fish.

That is not the right model..that is from Last year note the dates are the 15th of whater month it was last run...Also, 91L was used last week. I been checking for 91L for days and it hasnt changed

INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050613 1800 UTC

This is 92L and it dont seem to be updated yet either...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

Never mind :roll:

You are correct.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #6 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:31 pm

I can't make a map at this time, but all four models have the system moving over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Neither of these models show a strike for Hispaniola.

It would be in the best interest to NOT refer to 92L as being a fish. This system appears to have a descent mudslide potential, especially if the track moves further west.

(Note: Brent, that last comment was not directed at you. I understand that you meant after the upcoming landfalls.)

air360 · #7 Postby **air360** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:32 pm

that also says storm 91. They are said that the one that is currently out there is 92. So not only would they ahve to forget to change the dates and times and whatever but the actual name/number of the storm as well? Thats alot of errors to be the correct chart

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:32 pm

a98E takes 92L accross eastern Cuba, Not hispanola

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #9 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:32 pm

senorpepr wrote:I can't make a map at this time, but all four models have the system moving over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Neither of these models show a strike for Hispaniola.

It would be in the best interest to NOT refer to 92L as being a fish. This system appears to have a descent mudslide potential, especially if the track moves further west.

(Note: Brent, that last comment was not directed at you. I understand that you meant after the upcoming landfalls.)

On the Cuba strike: BAMM is the westernmost model showing a strike just east of Camaguey. A98E is the easternmost model showing a Guantanamo Bay strike.

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:36 pm

I'm confused.

That's in the exact position as 92L and the 92L link has one model with a really messed up map(all I can make out is Florida jumbled together).

Edit: OK... now I get it. What happened with this year's 91L? :?:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #11 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:39 pm

Brent wrote:I'm confused.

That's in the exact position as 92L and the 92L link has one model with a really messed up map(all I can make out is Florida jumbled together).

Edit: OK... now I get it. What happened with this year's 91L?

I know it's in the same position, but trust me... the map's wrong. I hand plotted the aforementioned models and the produced the results that I mentioned above.

As for this 91L... some people claim the NRL had 91L up... but this lasted only a few hours. I believe that was in error because no models were ever run on 91L. Arlene should have been 91L, not 90L. 90L was an invest in May and they don't refresh the numbers once June rolls around. (They refresh the numbers in January for the start of the year)

air360 · #12 Postby **air360** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:40 pm

you get it now brent? Im still confused....would you mind explaining whats going on!?

LCfromFL · #13 Postby **LCfromFL** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:40 pm

Brent wrote:I'm confused.

That's in the exact position as 92L and the 92L link has one model with a really messed up map(all I can make out is Florida jumbled together).

Yeah...the SFWMD map is messed up...guess we need to get out the old lat/long map, a ruler and pencil to figure out those coordinates :roll:

(I prefer those pretty maps - just a keystroke away!) 8-)

cyclonaut · #14 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:41 pm

Could be wrong because check this out!

& so on!

Website · #15 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:41 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm confused.

That's in the exact position as 92L and the 92L link has one model with a really messed up map(all I can make out is Florida jumbled together).

Edit: OK... now I get it. What happened with this year's 91L?

I know it's in the same position, but trust me... the map's wrong. I hand plotted the aforementioned models and the produced the results that I mentioned above.

As for this 91L... some people claim the NRL had 91L up... but this lasted only a few hours. I believe that was in error because no models were ever run on 91L. Arlene should have been 91L, not 90L. 90L was an invest in May and they don't refresh the numbers once June rolls around. (They refresh the numbers in January for the start of the year)

Yeah I see that. I don't know why 90L brings up one model run from last week right around the time TD 1/Arlene formed.

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:42 pm

cyclonaut wrote:Could be wrong because check this out!

& so on!

Those look like(just a guess) the second Ivan, Matthew, and one of the fishes(Karl? Lisa?) Note the dates

air360 · #17 Postby **air360** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:42 pm

where's a statement from the guys who run the models explaining everything when you need one!! goodness! confusion!

Website · #18 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:45 pm

air360 wrote:you get it now brent? Im still confused....would you mind explaining whats going on!?

No I don't... all I get is that 91L is NOT 92L or the system the NHC is looking at right now. I have no clue what storm it is, but it's not this one.

I don't understand why 90L has one Arlene model and then 91L shows whatever system it is showing(the invest for Arlene should show the last model runs on it the NHC ran).

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #19 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:49 pm

Brent wrote:
air360 wrote:you get it now brent? Im still confused....would you mind explaining whats going on!?

No I don't... all I get is that 91L is NOT 92L or the system the NHC is looking at right now. I have no clue what storm it is, but it's not this one.

I don't understand why 90L has one Arlene model and then 91L shows whatever system it is showing(the invest for Arlene should show the last model runs on it the NHC ran).

90L was the invest number for Arlene. 91L was skipped... for whatever reason. The models that are shown on the graphic above were from November 15, 2004.

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:53 pm

According to hurricane alley, 91L formed on 5/15/05...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/91L.html

Yet there wasnt a statement issued on the 15th--but on the 24th....

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT 24 MAY 2005

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THIS SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
AXNT20 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATWDAT

OOPS--just read your post above senor.... N/M

(92L) 13/18Z NHC Models (with image!)

(92L) 13/18Z NHC Models (with image!)

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