The Tallahassee discussion includes intrigue....
FXUS62 KTAE 131829
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005
.SYNOPSIS...AN AMPLIFIED PATTER CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY,
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A BIG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC RIDGING WWD ACROSS DIXIE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW MAINLY
SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA).
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY PHASING OVER ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER
LOW DROPPING SEWD FROM HUDSON BAY. THE RESULTING LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL HELP PUSH A FRONT DEEP INTO THE S ON WED.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST BY THU MORNING.
POPS THROUGH TUE NIGHT REFLECT A BLEND OF THE MOS, WHICH ALSO FITS
OUR SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY. ON WED, WE CHOSE TO GO A BIT ABOVE MOS
AND LEAVE THE INHERITED UNIFORM 40 POP, CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH
THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO IT IS A BIT SURPRISING THAT THE MAV
POP IS SO LOW FOR THAT DAY.
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST AFTER LOCAL FROPA, AND WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND PENINSULA ON MON. SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE
N SIDE OF THE FRONT, POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY PRECLUDES REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY OVER OUR
SERN ZONES. N AND W OF THE SERN BIG BEND ZONES, WE WILL USE SILENT
10S FOR THU AND FRI. FOR SAT, A WAVE WILL FORM ON THE WRN END OF THE
FRONT, ALLOWING IT TO DRIFT NWD AGAIN, SO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
USED. FOR SUN AND MON, LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED, ALTHOUGH THE
JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE AS FAR SW
AS THE LAST COUPLE GFS RUNS HAVE INDICATED. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE
MODEL ACTUALLY SHOWS ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING PULLED NWD BY
THIS LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF ON MON. LET'S HOPE THIS DOESN'T COME TO
PASS.
&&
.MARINE...WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM SUITE FOR WINDS, FOLLOWED BY
THE 06Z DGEX. THIS MODEL BRINGS A SOMEWHAT TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED-FRI, WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE
LOOSE GRADIENT DEPICTED ON THE GFS. HOWEVER, WE DID KEEP THE WINDS
AOB 15 KT SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT UNDER 10 KT
OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED CB. MOST OF THE CB WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, BUT
SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR OR IFR AS LOW
CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU AND
FRI, BUT WE DO NOT SEE RED FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET AT THIS TIME.
