Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

The bet is still on that Sea - Tac will exceed their normal June rainfall. A 990 - 995 low off the central coast should be a good rain maker. That strong of a low is quite abnormal for this time of year. As for the monthly temperature average. It still has a good chance of beeing the coolest in 25 years! I think the persistence of the cool pattern does make this unusual. We could end up with VERY few above normal days this month. As I have said this cool of a June in combination with the hot June they are having in the north central part of the nation has not happened since 1971.

Weathergirl...there is now only a 5% chance of an El Nino next winter, and that is dwindling every day. This next winter is going to be cold...guaranteed!

[snow_wizzard]

A QUESTION FOR THE MODERATOR

Brennan is very anxious to get back on here, and is wondering if you will give him another chance.

Thanks for your consideration.

[TT-SEA]

Exceeding normal rainfall is not enough. We need to signifcantly exceed normal.

We will not.

Are you betting we will get to 2.50 inches?? Or just to normal at 1.44 inches??

There will be days with temperatures at or above normal towards the end of June.

A slightly cool, probably slightly dry June is not that exciting.

[R-Dub]

It was quite windy in my area this morning, reminded me of fall! Then the sun finally came out around 3:00PM today, and felt more like June.
Currently Mostly Sunny with a temp of 57 degrees.

I am going to wait until the second week of November before I give my predictions for the winter.

Well off to bed, since it gets light at 4:30AM I have to be at the course at 3:30AM

[snow_wizzard]

TT...Right now I will bet on over 1.5 inches. You should realize that the ensemble mean shows a trough to finish out the month too. That should seal the deal for the quite low monthly average temp, and add to our chances of the 2.5" goal for rainfall. For all we know this area could see a 1 inch soaking later in the week. A low of the strenth the models are showing is capable of that. The ECMWF shows the low will come very close to the coast too.

Interesting to note...a low like the one progged for the end of the week would be a snow maker in the winter.

[snow_wizzard]

Hmm...The visible satellite imagery shows the clouds over the area totally disapating right now. I have been dying to see a clear night with all of this cool air over us. With a dew point of 42 at my place, I think a clear night could bring a low of 40. That would be a FINE low temp for this time of year!

That having been said, I will not believe the clear night until I see it.

[andycottle]

The weather here has been partly to mostly sunny since early this morning. Also quite breezy this morning to. Over all, quite a nice day...as far as sky conditions temp goes. My high today was 67 with a low of 51. I recieved .08" during the over night hours of last night.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z run of the GFS tracks the low even further south. Meaning its less likely we will see significant rain.

After that... look for warmer and drier. Could be many days above normal towards the end of the month under a ridge. No rain in sight after this week.

We will be very lucky to even get to normal rainfall for June. Getting 2.5+ inches is almost impossible!!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You are placing way too much faith in the GFS for precip totals. The chances of this month ending up below normal for precip are just above ZERO! Even if the low ends up off the central Oregon coast that puts us in moist unstable southerly flow. That is notorious for producing heavy showers and thunderstorms for us.

In case all you were not aware of this...They have recently changed the formula for figuring the PNA. That is why it is staying positive all of the time. I asked them if they would consider doing an alternate PNA page using the old method and they said no. They even acknowledged that people have complained that this change basically makes their past PNA research worthless, because you cannot use the old data to extrapolate what the current readings may lead too. The bottom line is...the new method should prove to be a more accurate reflection of where we are really at with the PNA, but it will now be much more difficult to achieve negative PNA readings. This could explain why we have recently seen negative PNA winters not deliver the goods. They have also updated all of the historic data to reflect the new method. Back to drawing board as they say...

[weather girl]

As we all know, I'm not much of a hot summer fan. I don't mind sun, and 80 degrees is great, but I start melting after that. Having said that, I gotta admit it looks like some ridging will start happening at the end of the month. We'll have to watch it, of course, but it looks like the southern branch of the jet will sink towards Hawaii when the Gulf of Alaska ridge builds in. You can kinda see this now because the storm we're getting a little later this week is hooking up nicely with some tropical moisture. The western rockies will be in the next warmth pattern as well. Up until now Salt Lake City, at least, has been hanging with us in the 60s. A lot will depend on where that southern jet is aimed. All of this is just in time for the southwest desert to start heating up, too.....

Nice high summer ridges: Good. Heat lows: Not so much.

[snow_wizzard]

Weathergirl...I have a suspicion we are going to see some kind of a major warm period in July. It remains to be seen if it will begin this month or not. Historically speaking, when we are in a prolonged cool periods like this, the coolest weather comes just before it gets warm. That makes me confident our most substantially below normal temps are yet to come!

Indeed, the 12z run seems to show a trough sliding down the Canadian coast toward the end of the month. Troughs from that trajectory often bring quite cool weather.

[weather girl]

Maybe with the end-of-the month trough. How's that? It's going to be iffy during that last week. It depends on where the heat sets up. I kinda thought it would be more to the east than where the CPC has it now, although their confidence is low. Right now, it looks like it will set up camp directly over the heartland. It definitely bears watching. My summer outlook (especially for a pretty aggressive Bermuda high) could be in the toilet if the next surge of ridge building is centered more to the west.

Could get dicey with the model runs the next few days......

[snow_wizzard]

Interesting...A convergence zone of sorts over eastern Jefferson County / NE Kitsap County with a strong surge rocketing down the stait. With only light SW winds south of Seattle that surge could easily knock the C zone into central and SW King County. This would further hurt TT's chances of seeing the monthly total precip end up at 1.25"!

I am really beginning to like the visible satellite loop. It shows a lot of fine details that can be quite useful.

[TT-SEA]

The 18z run of the NAM came up with some good precipitation for the Seattle area towards the end of the week.

There is a chance of some significant rainfall. I still say we will end up around normal.

[R-Dub]

Currently raining with a temp of 54 degrees..........What else is new

Did see about an hour of sun late in the morning though

[TT-SEA]

The latest run of the NAM has greatly reduced the total rainfall predicted from the coming storm for the Puget Sound area.

With this pattern... anything is possible. But I still say it will not be a big rainmaker in Seattle.

We are going to seriously struggle to get to normal rainfall for June.

Snow_Wizzard... you were so sure that the storm on 6/6 was going to be a big rainmaker and Sea-Tac ended up with .13 in three days and most places had a .25 or less (except Covington).

This is almost the exact same pattern. Why do you repeat past errors and predict heavy rain??

[AnthonyC]

Very impressive system developing off the Oregon coast...but there are already signs of digging occurring. I have to agree with TT-SEA, this southwest flow aloft and cyclonic flow around the surface low is not good for Western Washington. A returned flow off the cascades creates a rainshadow especially along the cascade foothills. Best bet for significant precip will be along the Hood Canal with orographic lift. The low stalls off the north OR coast and weakens moving inland over southern OR. A showery period, but nothing too significant...but any rainfall in the middle of June is significant. Don't get your hopes up too much Snow_Wizzard...I think you're gonna be let down.

Anthony

[AnthonyC]

Correction:

"...southeast flow around the surface low..."

That's better.

[snow_wizzard]

Wow! I am impressed that the GFS is actually pretty wet on this run. It is rare for it to be wetter than the ETA. At face value it seems to be showing the wettest 12 hour period could have about .35 to .75 in the Seattle area. I still say the models almost always underdo precip coming up from the south. A half in would be a realistic expectation from the main front, and then more from the showers afterward.

[TT-SEA]

So if we are very lucky... we get .50 for the storm.

Then its gradually building warmth as the storm track shifts north. Could even be hot by the end of the month.

One thing is clear... rainfall will be at a premium after this week.

So we MIGHT end up close to normal for rainfall in June. That does NOT correlate to a cold winter.

You are not facing facts here.

I see major disappointment coming your way!!