Interesting NWS discussion out of N.O.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting reading from the NWS folks in the Big Easy.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX OF TS MOVING THROUGH NE TEXAS THIS MORNING IS SETTING OFF
OUTFLOW MOVING SE. THESE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING JUST WHEN THE SEA BREEZE IS GETTING STARTED. C-BRZ IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND BUT WHERE THESE TWO BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE COULD SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SH/TS. 20% NORTH 30% SOUTH
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR TODAY. AFTERWARDS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA WED PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SH/TS TO DEVELOP. THIS
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DIURNAL SITUATION. THU WILL SEE MCS FEATURES
DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR THU AND FRI NIGHTS. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE WHAT IS ADVERTISED IN CURRENT FORECAST. STORM FLOW IS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. NOCTUNAL TS THAT DEVELOP OFFSHORE WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

COMPLEX OF SH/TS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AND FRI WILL BE WATCHED SINCE CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIPE FOR THESE SYSTEMS TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS.

HOT HOT HOT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE ONLY
RELIEF BEING A COOLING TS OR CLOUD COVER. DEW PTS WILL BE RUNNING
QUITE HIGH DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S CAUSING HI
READINGS TO BE ABOVE 100. NOT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

[Wnghs2007]

That sounds like what Danny Came from in 1997. 1 big blob of thunderstorms went off the coast sat and then formed into a Hurricane...

[KatDaddy]

ALicia developed from a similar occurrence. It does happen but its rare.

[Portastorm]

Alicia ... the 1983 version ... developed that way?

Wow, didn't know that. And for some Texans that was quite a nasty storm.

Michael

[PTrackerLA]

I believe it's fairly rare as the last time it happened was Danny in 1997 but it would see like we are almost "due" for a true home-grown storm. Not saying I even think it will happen but I have a feeling the gulf will be very active this year.

[Steve]

>>COMPLEX OF SH/TS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AND FRI WILL BE WATCHED SINCE CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE RIPE FOR THESE SYSTEMS TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS

Trof split will be in about a week (per yesterday's JB video). That should allow for sufficient interruption of flow to at least make the Central and Western Gulf more favorable for development. If a complex of storms sits back along with a piece of the trof and a wave kicks in the juice, you never know. But since this is a NO thread, he did mention that he's centering his Landfall Intensity Forecast (due out tomorrow) on the Gulf. I'm guessing the 1995 analog would mean the Eastern Gulf (e.g. NW Florida) but we'll have to see if any of that information is leaked to the public sector.

Steve

[BayouVenteux]

...I'm guessing the 1995 analog would mean the Eastern Gulf (e.g. NW Florida)...

Steve

: that's been my general hunch (regarding JB's seasonal landfall intensity forecast) as well, in light of what most of the other pundits willing to partake in seasonal geographic landfall forecasting have also stated. The general consensus thus far for the GoM seems to be storms riding strong ridging west into Texas/Mexico or recurves poleward and up into the Ala/Fla region on eastward.

FWIW, most seasonal landfall forecasters lean heavily on the fact that Louisiana (Central to SE in particular) usually only sees hurricane landfalls during ENSO years, and at least in the relatively short time they've been monitoring El Nino patterns, that seems to be the case.

We shall see.

[Steve]

Indeed. Something about those El Nino years and LA landfalls. But we usually get a tropical storm pretty close by in those heavy years and might feel some effects from a near-by landfall. I'd assume he's going to weight us somewhere in the 3.5-6 range which would be some TS 1 effects (possibly in combo with another TS or H).

Steve

[Brent]

1983 and 1997 were VERY slow years too... in fact, Alicia and Danny are the only storms that make those years noteworthy. (Danny WAS the only U.S. landfall in 1997).

[Droop12]

Be sure to let us know Steve when he releases his forecast. It should be interesting. Right now I have the feeling that we cant get hit again over here. I told myself that a few days ago, then I thought to myself, we still have 4 good months to go. So I dunno what to expect around this way.

[Steve]

>>Be sure to let us know Steve when he releases his forecast. It should be interesting. Right now I have the feeling that we cant get hit again over here. I told myself that a few days ago, then I thought to myself, we still have 4 good months to go. So I dunno what to expect around this way.

I'd love to but I don't have access this year. I'm boycotting sending any money to Accuweather because of the Santorum bill in Senate. If he puts some of it on the Tropical Update then I'll get a hint. But if he leaves it on the Meterological Map Disco, then I ain't gonna see it. But how about someone else on the site goes after that 30 day free trial and just cancels it before the free subscription runs out?

Steve

[Droop12]

Oh, My bad Steve. I thought you said you had a buddy tell you what JB has to say. I must have misunderstood you earlier. Im not a big fan of accuweather either, only thing worthwhile over there is Joe's thoughts. But thats just my opinion.

[Steve]

Yeah, if I can get him to give up the goods I will. He's sometimes hard to get in touch with. Here's the spot on Yahoo where they run the videos. They have the tropical outlook and the Point/Counterpoint show for free through Yahoo but not the MMD.

http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

Steve

[Droop12]

Thanks for the link Steve. I havent seen a video from Joe for 3 years now. I'll take a look at them later, Im off to work now. Have a good one.