Special Weather Statement - Southern New Jersey

[Stephanie]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-022130-


SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...


THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND MUCH OF DELAWARE AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET
AT http://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

$$
WOODWORTH

Right now it's kind of humid and partly cloudy. We'll see if this helps to fuel any potential storms.

[ColdFront77]

Stephanie, thank you for the information. I see some storm popping up and moving eastward in the northern United States. I am especially keeping an eye on the activity moving toward where I grew up- southeastern Massachusetts. Some thunderstorms have moved out of New York state moving into western Massachusetts and western Connecticut.

I posted a Weather Statement from the National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts [I grew up 10 miles east of Taunton; the 25th largest city in the country in land area]

[Allexpert Mike]

Hey Steph

Yes storms around our area were intense....I experience an hour of very heavy rain and it probably added up to .50-.75" if not more around an 1". It was very weird how these storms fueled giving the lack of the low level wind fields along with no favorable deep layer shear with weak MLJ and a rather weak ULJ. With that said tornadic formation was out of the question. With the lack of any strong waa we had nice diabetic heating along with nice diurnal heating leading to (as you said) fuel for these storms with strong thermodynamic instibality. Shear profiles were rather weak, however given strong low level convergence and high dew points along with excellent directional shear we saw for the most part gusty winds with marginal size hail throughout the region. BAck over towards KY/OH were talking a strong dry air intrusion at H7 and havent checked reports yet but I bet damaging winds will be reported. Overall we have had a nice outbreak throughout the US for this Friday.

* To many they probably think I gave up forecasting without posting for a while. But actually I forecast close to 6 days a week just not posted anywhere. I'm a forecaster for NEMAS now so i'll post a link to it later tonight when I make a LRF analyis and I hope many people can bookmark and check in on my severe forecast and lrf analyis along with msa's. But keep in mind theres many forecasters so if you have questions about it make sure my SIG. at the bottom is there and i'll go over it later.

[Stephanie]

Yo Mike! Good to see you again buddy!

By all means send me your link. I'm glad to hear you're working for NEMA! That's great!

Tom & Mike - I ended up driving through a storm near my house at around 5:30 - 6:00 pm. The storms seemed form and re-form again, so we had a couple of downpours with alittle lightning. The clouds were pretty cool looking. You could definately tell they were trying to get their act together - very dark and low.

[Allexpert Mike]

Stephanie,

I drove through a storm around 7pm around Haddonfield and I've never seen roads so flooded. You could've went canoeing down some of the roads...lol.

*i'm finishing up my anlaysis i'll make a topic in 15-20 minutes.

[Stephanie]

I'll look forward to reading it, though I think I'm heading to bed now. I'll see it in the morning!