Missions to BOC starting at 18:00z 6/16/05 (If Necessary)

[mf_dolphin]

I think the recon schedule is just an "in case" type of thing. I seriously doubt they will actually fly the mission.

[Trader Ron]

Chad,

I'll bet $50 it gets cancelled. ...

[PTrackerLA]

Well we all thought the wave would be inland by now but it's still out there festering. There has been redevelopment of storms over the BOC and if it's still out there by tomorrow we might have something to deal with. There is a front coming down to the gulf coast but I'm not sure if that's enough to pull this system northward. Don't think NHC would have scheduled a flight unless they thought there was a chance for this to move north IMO.

[Anonymous]

Yea, you know how conservative the NHC is, but for a system like this, they must think that...

A. Some of the energy will stay behind and move little or drift north

B. Upper Level Winds ARE Favorable for development, and waters are warm.

After Bret in 1999, why chance it...who would have expected this:::


To become this:::

[senorpepr]

As a few said, NHC and CARCAH most likely scheduled the mission as a CYA move. In the event of 93L stalling and/or drifting northward, they would rather have a mission already schedule than have to get a crew ready at the last minute. It's MUCH easier to cancel a mission than recalling crew members into work for a mission.

With that said, I have a strong feeling that the mission will be scrapped. Last report had 93L moving at 310° at 8kt.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Seroperp, I almost upped my hurricane numbers on May 31st to 17 named storms from my 15 named storms. I'm starting to think that was a good idea I did not up it.

[senorpepr]

Remember, don't get too discouraged if a lot of storms don't form in June. On average, June only sees a named storm one every other year. Even 1995, a season with 19 named storms, only saw one in the month of June. Just lean back and relax, because in a few weeks we'll have our hand full enough.

[Brent]

WOW... Bret was a naked swirl. I can barely remember that. I remember vividly watching CNN and TWC for the landfall though. It was on a Saturday Evening.

[Swimdude]

Let's please note that this is a scheduled flight; if necessary. Chances are, if the NHC thinks we're wasting tax money by investigating, they'll cancell like the one in the Carribean a few days ago.

[KatDaddy]

As I said before, just the N end of a TW. Nothing at all and now inland over Mexico just as expected. Much more TWs in the upcoming months to move across the S GOM. The entire Atl Basin is primed this season. If this TW had another 24-36 hours we would have had TS #2 IMO.

[george_r_1961]

I really don't see the need for Recon to go in there. Half of it is over land, and moving west. Waste of tax money IMHO.

Agreed Chris. I do not see the need for a recon at this time.

[tailgater]

BOC refiring this morning and with the upper high sitting on top of it. It has to be watched for any chance of it getting out over open water.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not sure but if convection keeps firing out over water. It "could" get interesting very fast. I will post some storms that have done what I think this could do if it forms.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm Larry

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical depression 1

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Tropcial depression two. A short lived system. We could very well see a LLC form fast get upgraded like this.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


1999 Hurricane Bret another good reason to watch this close!!!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Or a piece of energy could run north in form. Like tropical depression 7. 1999 also had a very active BOC season!!!
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

With this best area of convection at the time south of 20 north. This seems likely. Tropical depressoin 11...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Hurricane Earl of 1998 came out of the BOC. But it flowed from the back side of a trough. So is not very likely.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Yeah if a LLC where to spin up on the northern side!!! But kind of like Earl not likely.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Tropical depression 5 of 1995
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1993 tropical storm Arlene. Which would have to form over that eastern blob.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Hurricane Jerry of 1989
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Hurricane Debbie 1988...In which would have to form off the far eastern side. But there is a buoy that shows a northward wind at around 93 west.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Tropical storm Edouards 1984
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Hurricane Bob not likely like Earl but another reason to watch.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Wow Hurricane Martha 1969.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Tropical storm Candy 1968. It turned north then hit Texas. Who knows!!!
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Fern 1967.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1966 tropical storm Hallie
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Tropical storm Inga interesting system 1961
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Tropical storm one 1960
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Thunder44]

Perhaps something is trying to develop now. I've notice last few hours, the clouds start to fan out over inland over Mexico over the past few hours, and maybe a new spin very close to the coast. But land may still inhibit this from developing much further. Take look at a close-up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think there maybe a slight twist near 19 north/93 west. On the eastern side. Thank god the nhc still has the recon to check it out.

Also a note is that a buoy/ship reported a north wind it was around 21 north/93 west. Which means any center would be reforming east of there.

I'm also going to have to look at visible satellite now...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok I'm going to put my head in the trap again.

Take a look at how the lower clouds/outflow is moving south to north around the eastern side of it. Then it moves east to west across the top. I think the center if any is around 19.5 north/93 west.
Also that buoy to the north would give a good idea that it maybe forming with in this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Thunder44]

Matt, I see the spin you are talking about. You see it better on IR-2 imagery: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That bouy in the BOC hasn't reported anything new for the last several hours.

Actually it just reported at 11:50 GMT Winds coming out of the east or ENE, which make sense if you want to find a surface low to the south of that position.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Upper high is forming over the system. Which makes the high/deep convection spin clock wise. While you can see the lower clouds spinning counter clock wise. Which is the low pressure area developing. Can't wait for recon. Boc storms are pretty rare only happen once every 3 or 4 years on avg.