How Many People Think that a Monster Hurricane Will Hit

[SouthernWx]

It is funny how when people talk about dangerous and devastating storms they almost NEVER talk about Hurricane Hugo... Hurricane Hugo was one of the most devastating storms to hit the US (not to mention Puerto Rico, Guadelope and Monserrat) in RECENT history... I consider Hugo with it's 135 mph winds when it hit S Carolina to definately be a Monster storm. Sure Hugo didnt pack the punch that Camille did as far as wind speed is concerned but if you consider the size of the storm Hugo was a monster and I think deserves some Monster respect....

The only reason folks don't mention hurricane Hugo in the same breath with Andrew or Camille is the fortunate fact the very worst...the core northeast of the eye moved inland over a very sparsely populated area of the South Carolina coast. IF Hugo had slammed inland just SW of Charleston, it would have been completely obliterated....I mean wiped and washed off the map. The city of Charleston was extremely lucky the northeast eyewall missed them....

IF Hugo had struck southern Florida....had taken the identical path as hurricane Andrew from Homestead AFB to just south of Everglades City then on into the GOM, the city of Miami would have been devastated by gusts reaching 175-180 mph; Miami Beach and Key Biscayne would have went underwater from an 11-14' storm surge. Hugo's eye was 35 miles in diameter at landfall...meaning if it had slammed into Dade county 20 miles south of Miami's skyscrapers, the northern edge of the eye would have passed within 2 miles of the downtown area....and that's the precise area (northern eyewall) where maximum winds and highest storm surge occur. Also, due the large core (eyewall region) of Hugo, a landfall near Homestead would have put 110+ mph sustained winds all the way to extreme southern Palm Beach county; all of Dade county, all of Broward county, as well as Naples and Key Largo would have experienced major damage. A Florida meteorologist and I were discussing this very subject several years ago, and his opinion? If hurricane Hugo had impacted south Dade on a westward course....everything south of Lake Okeechobee would have been declared a disaster area (including the upper and middle Florida Keys...swamped by a significant storm surge from Florida Bay).

It's now believe Hugo's sustained winds at landfall were around 145 mph, gusting to 175-180 mph....based on 140 kt flight level winds measured near time of landfall (giving estimated surface winds of 126 kt/ 145 mph). Hurricane Hugo was just as large and intense as the Great Miami hurricane....just as intense and nearly as large as Carla; more intense and just as large as Luis at it's peak. If a monstrous hurricane of Hugo's size and intensity strikes a highly populated U.S. coastal area head on this season, it will be remembered as a monster...and a monster which IMO will be mentioned in the same breath as Andrew and Camille for decades to come.

PW

[mobilebay]

It is funny how when people talk about dangerous and devastating storms they almost NEVER talk about Hurricane Hugo... Hurricane Hugo was one of the most devastating storms to hit the US (not to mention Puerto Rico, Guadelope and Monserrat) in RECENT history... I consider Hugo with it's 135 mph winds when it hit S Carolina to definately be a Monster storm. Sure Hugo didnt pack the punch that Camille did as far as wind speed is concerned but if you consider the size of the storm Hugo was a monster and I think deserves some Monster respect....

The only reason folks don't mention hurricane Hugo in the same breath with Andrew or Camille is the fortunate fact the very worst...the core northeast of the eye moved inland over a very sparsely populated area of the South Carolina coast. IF Hugo had slammed inland just SW of Charleston, it would have been completely obliterated....I mean wiped and washed off the map. The city of Charleston was extremely lucky the northeast eyewall missed them....

IF Hugo had struck southern Florida....had taken the identical path from Homestead AFB to just south of Everglades City then into the GOM, the city of Miami would have been obliterated; Miami Beach and Key Biscayne would have went underwater. Hugo's eye was 35 miles in diameter at landfall...meaning if it had slammed into Dade county 20 miles south of Miami's skyscrapers, the northern edge of the eye would have passed within 2 miles...and that's the precise area (northern eyewall) where maximum winds and highest storm surge occur. Also, due the large core (eyewall region) of Hugo, a landfall near Homestead would have put 110+ mph sustained winds all the way to southern Palm Beach county; all of Dade, all of Broward, as well as Naples and Key Largo would have experienced major damage. A Florida meteorologist and I were discussing this subject several years ago, and his opinion? If hurricane Hugo had impacted south Dade on a westward course....everything south of Lake Okeechobee would have been declared a disaster area (including the upper and middle Florida Keys...swamped by a significant storm surge from Florida Bay).

It's now believe Hugo's sustained winds at landfall were around 145 mph....based on 140 kt flight level winds measured near time of landfall (giving estimated surface winds of 126 kt/ 145 mph). Hurricane Hugo was just as large and intense as the Great Miami hurricane....just as intense and nearly as large as Carla; more intense and just as large as Luis at it's peak. If a monstrous hurricane of Hugo's size and intensity strikes a highly populated U.S. coastal area head on this season, it will be remembered as a monster...and a monster which IMO will be mentioned in the same breath as Andrew and Camille for decades to come.

PW

Great post SouthernWx. This is absolutely correct. Hugo was a broad storm and would have caused major damage over a much larger area. In fact, I think the dollar amount would have been much greater. South Florida still has not had it's worse case scenario. IMO.

[Normandy]

I define a monster storm if it causes more than 20 billions dollars in damage and or kills more than 100 people.

Could one happen this year? Well, a well placed 3 could fit that bill I stated above.

[SouthernWx]

Great post SouthernWx. This is absolutely correct. Hugo was a broad storm and would have caused major damage over a much larger area. In fact, I think the dollar amount would have been much greater. South Florida still has not had it's worse case scenario. IMO.

Thanks!

Folks just don't realize how large hurricane Hugo was. The only reason it wasn't a catastrophe was the eye passed inland between Charleston and Myrtle Beach....the center of the eye passing just NE of Charleston (why the storm surge was 10-12' and not 18-20').

Those forests to the NE of Charleston were leveled...and well inland; not just along the coast.
Remember, it's a looong way from Charlotte, NC to the coast, and gusts reached 100 mph there; and 81 mph at Hickory, NC.

Take the parameters of Hugo at landfall and plot them on a Florida map (which I've done):

a) landfall pressure 934 mb

b) max sustained winds 125 kt, gusts of 155 kt

c) eye diameter 30 n mi (35 miles across)

d) sustained winds in excess of 120 mph occurred at Georgetown, SC....about 45 miles NE of Charleston.

e) gusts of 110 mph were recorded along the beachfront at Myrtle Beach....80-85 miles NE of Charleston.

f) a storm surge of 13' occurred at Myrtle Beach.

g) hurricane force winds occurred along the immediate coastline from just NE of Savannah Beach, GA to south of Wilmington, NC....over 100 miles NE and 50 miles SW of the landfall point.

If a hurricane of Hugo's parameters slams into south Dade (Homestead), it means 120+ mph sustained winds will slam Fort Lauderdale...with 130-145 mph sustained winds affecting Hollywood, Hallandale, and points south to Miami and Miami Beach (probably as far south as Perrine and Cutler Ridge). A storm surge of 10-15' would innundate the beachfronts from Palm Beach south Homestead....and gusts will reach 110 mph on Palm Beach.

In the upper Florida Keys, they would experience much stronger winds than areas of South Carolina/ Georgia SW of landfall during Hugo....BECAUSE the winds would come off of water (Florida Bay) not land. I venture an educated guess sustained hurricane force winds would extend as far south as Marathon, and gusts in excess of hurricane force would occur at Key West. In the upper Keys (north of Islamorada), gusts would IMO exceed 115 mph, and there would be serious storm surge flooding from shallow Florida Bay...perhaps 7-10' (innundating many areas).

Remember, Hugo caused major wind damage well inland over South and North Carolina, and would have maintained even more intensity while crossing the Everglades. A similar parameter hurricane would likely re-enter the GOM as a major hurricane (the 1926 Great Miami hurricane still had 125 mph winds when it passed over Fort Myers into the Gulf), so I'd expect major wind damage from Fort Myers and Cape Coral southward...with a significant storm surge south of the eye (west winds blowing onshore).

All in all, a Hugo size/ strength hurricane would be far more destructive and devastating to south Florida than Andrew was...with some of the worst damage in the most densely populated areas.....Miami northward to Fort Lauderdale. The eyewall region would affect millions of people, and IMO the damage would be 3 times what Andrew caused...100 billion dollars isn't out of the question.

If anyone thinks I'm fibbing, hyping, or overblowing the impact of a very large 145 mph hurricane on south Florida, go ask the opinion of Dr Bob Sheets and Dr Neil Frank....their analysis is the same as mine (it would be worse than Andrew was....a catastrophe).

PW

[Thunder44]

How can anybody forget Hugo? That was like one of first hurricane I followed when I was a kid. The name alone is sounds frightening

[donsutherland1]

Great post, Perry. Given its size and strength, Hugo was a "monster" as far as I'm concerned. SC suffered enormous damage. Had the track been just a little different, the damage would have been catastrophic.

One day--probably within our lifetime if past history is representative--a devastating storm comparable to Hugo will impact a heavily-populated area in the U.S. The magnitude of the disaster will be enormous and possibly a multiple of Andrew's damage, as Andrew was much smaller than Hugo.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I lived in Florida when Andrew went through, in North Carolina when Fran and Floyd went through, but nowhere did I see the "reverence" for storms as when I lived in Hickory, NC and they spoke of Hugo.
For that far inland to get so many trees leveled, is amazing! I wondered why there was so many trees down in the forests nearby and asked someone - thinking it had been very poor lumbering practices at first, but was told by a local that the mess was all from Hugo years ago. Apparently it really tore things up and many were so caught offguard that their furniture, sheds, etc. as well as many roofs were blown off. They don't build for nor expect winds like that. Nobody put their yard things away or anything, so it was like the damage from a low grade tornado ripping through the entire western part of North Carolina.
At least in Florida people had awareness of what to expect and they somewhat* prepare. But Hugo woke many up to the fact that just because you live inland, that isjust a false sense of security from Hurricanes.

[Swimdude]

Assuming that "monster" means something such as Andrew, Camille, etc...

Yes.

We're over-due for a really bad one. Not saying last year wasn't bad... But still; nothing historic or record-breaking such as those listed above.

[otowntiger]

It is funny how when people talk about dangerous and devastating storms they almost NEVER talk about Hurricane Hugo... Hurricane Hugo was one of the most devastating storms to hit the US (not to mention Puerto Rico, Guadelope and Monserrat) in RECENT history... I consider Hugo with it's 135 mph winds when it hit S Carolina to definately be a Monster storm. Sure Hugo didnt pack the punch that Camille did as far as wind speed is concerned but if you consider the size of the storm Hugo was a monster and I think deserves some Monster respect....

Facts on Hugo:

Hurricane Hugo is the most intense hurricane to strike Georgia and the Carolinas in the last 100 years. In the 20th century, along the United States east coast (north of Florida) - no tropical cyclone has ever recorded a lower pressure, stronger winds, or higher tidal surges at landfall. The only hurricane that approaches Hugo's stature in the 20th century is Hurricane Hazel of 1954. It is likely that Hugo is the most intense tropical cyclone to strike South Carolina since the Great Sea Islands Hurricane of 1893.

In the middle of September 1989, millions of people throughout the Caribbean and the United States watched in profound amazement as Hurricane Hugo traveled thousands of miles with great intensity. On September 22 , five days after Hugo had left Guadeloupe and Montserrat in shambles, the tropical cyclone was 1,500 miles away in the United States - still ripping roofs off buildings in South Carolina. In terms of size, intensity, and destruction, Hugo was a record storm.

I think if you mention Hugo, you've gotta throw in Fredrick. He was 135 when he slammed Mobile, and don't forget Betsy. I think Betsy was a very impressive storm to have had the impact that she did as far out and inland she did. Baton Rouge got hammered with over 100mph winds and of course New Orleans, quite a ways to the east of landfall was devastated.

[otowntiger]

How's that for a solid answer? I really think one will happen, but, I just don't think it will be anytime soon, given history. They don't come along very often, at least not over the last 100 years or so. If I had to lay money on it, I'd say it'd be another 10 years before one hits land.

[cyclonaut]

When your'e hunkered down under a matress & the winds are howling @ 130 mph with higher gusts,debris is flying hitting your home & heck is breaking loose..You would believe that there is a monster outside...Thats just a CAT 3 I described.

[HurriCat]

Argh - He said IT! Anyways, I view the debate on storm size/intensity as that when folks talk bullet calibers and power. The M16 fires the .223 which moves very fast. The AK47 & SKS fire the 7.62x39, which is slower but has greater mass. It comes down to getting hit by a speeding Ferrari or a lumbering bus - either will spoil the tea party. As for Florida getting the "monster" - yes indeedy! And I'll bet it will be the most weak name on the list, too. They should name these things stuff like Ogre, Troll, A-Hole and my personal favorite - Mo-Fo!

[krysof]

thank goodness for the east coast troughs or else we would be in a humid heat wave for the summer, and it protects my coastline-I really don't want a strong hurricane to make landfall. It's always fun to watch a major hurricane, but I feel guilty watching it in excitement when it's about to make landfall only because I love hurricane watching.

[gatorcane]

Yes, I do mean CAT 5 storms that have a large radius of hurricane force winds. For example, Hurricane Charley was nearly a CAT 5 but was a very small tightly wound up hurricane with the worst winds just going out not even 20 miles from the center. Thus Charley is not considered a monster hurricane.

Here is a link that gives short summaries and tracks of some of the strongest hurricanes to hit the U.S since 1900:

http://floridadisaster.org/hurricane_aware/english/history.shtml#mitch

[cycloneye]

In my case I consider Hugo a monster because of how strong it was cat 4 and a wide wind radius area and many people here still talk about it.And I felt it in a not good manner here in Puerto Rico with winds sustained of over 90 mph with gusts to 120 mph in San Juan.There was no power and water for over 3 weeks and the damage was very extensive in the NE part of Puerto Rico.This was a true classic longtracker Cape Verde hurricane from start to finish.

[LSU2001]

You mean a monster such as this!!!!

[gatorcane]

Yes LSU Gilbert is the largest monster to date holding the lowest recorded pressure in the the Western Hemisphere

[Derek Ortt]

Cat 5s dont have a alrge RMW.

Even Gilbert had an RMW of about 8NM. The rest was all cat 1-2 winds. Even the southern eye wall of Andrew only had marginal cat 3 conditions.

Very, very small areas (about 1-2 miles wide and from the coast to 1-2 miles) experience the strongest of winds

[Anonymous]

While I do not foresee a Cat 5 for the USA this year, I do think we will see atleast two major hurricanes impact the USA. But, over the next ten years...it is possible we may see another Camille, or Labor Day type of storm.

It is only a matter of time. One tropical wave enters the Gulf of Mexico, and, over 86 degree waters, with high pressure aloft, develops into a Category 4 hurricane in two days. Then, it becomes the next Gilbert and impacts the United States.

Will it be Franklin, or Gert? Beryl, or Debby? Edouard, or Hanna. Who knows...but when we look at that name list...we know, down the road, one of those will live forever in Hurricane History.

[dhweather]

I just don't think we'll see a cat 5 hitting the US this year. That's just a gut feel by me.