If you trust yourself, how do you know when to leave

[Anonymous]

I am in NE fla and was obviously hooked last year to radars, satellites and advisories and I am a storm spotter and think I can trust my knowledge to watch radar trends and know when to leave before dangerous conditions hit in a hurricane or any other weather hazard. However last year, I left 3 times-once very early with charley and the other 2 storms, we left in the worst of it.

Bonnie-tornado Warning issued and the tornado track was dead on my home however it skipped me as track was from Baker co and it touched down on edgewood ave well to our east-northeast... April heard word apparently late of tornado and was frantic and called me at work and I told her all was ok at home as I had been watching it on radar from work and we had had a reverse 911 call.

Charley came and I was unsure and strictly listenned to officials who said all mobile homes need to leave---so I stayed elsewhere--came back home as the storm was at its closest point but offshore--dissapointed at the NHC and NWS as well as local official who hyped us, I am gonna decide from now on by watching the situation via radar/adv/sat... I can handle this and no need to inconvenience ourselves when not needed.

Frances comes and heads up from central fla----I watch radar trends and all rains look moderately heavy at best but as they approach, despite what I see on radar, april. kids are scared so we leave as we are hearing noises and dont know whats to come--ok--its ok---this storm may actually affect us---I come back and find out my judgement was right and we would have been ok---but familly was scared and I heeded their needs.

Jeanne comes along and strikes in the middle of the night and we are still ok--I watch radar the next am for our sake and see deep greens, yellows, and maybe a slight orange headed our way but these colors do not look too bad as I see worse colors than that on an average afternoon thunderstorm with deep reds and pinkish colors or even on occaision white . So I think Jeanne is not as strong as it is weakenning rapidly--but then as I see one of these yellow bands move through, it sounds like something is pulling up on my roof! We quickly leave and evac again as this was scary!

We came back the next morning to no water and a neighbor down the street with a tarp on his roof.

How do you know when to trust yourself to make the call and when to trust the local officials?

[jes]

I have the same question. I'm in Mobile and left for Ivan last year. I was here for Fredrick which was a much more destructive storm for Mobile. However, although it seemed like half the trees in Mobile were down after Frederick, I don't remember many houses severly affected in the city of Mobile. I'm not talking about the coastal areas. As a state employee we took Fema applications after Frederick so I had first hand knowledge of real destruction. With Ivan there was much less damage. Even with Camile the people in danger were along the coast. So, is it really necessary to leave if you are no where near water and a good 30 miles or so inland.

[beenthru6]

Well, if you are going to evacuate, you need to make a decision early on.and get out asap It would not be good to be stuck in a traffic jam with one of these storms bearing down on you. This happened to our neighbors, and they had to just come back home. It is always better to err on the side of caution and leave, than to stay and wish you had left. I think the key is to decide ahead of time what you are going to do and stick with that plan. If you decide to leave for a cat 3 or higher, and a cat 3 is headed your way, then don't second guess whether or not you should go, and end up wasting valuable time. If you leave and everything turned out fine at your house, then okay, you evacuated when you really didn't have to, but you can't always know that ahead of time. However, if you stay and disaster strikes, then who knows what may hapen.

[FlSteel]

Hey Jekyhe, I'm from Jax too. Live in the mandarin area. I agree with you that making the call is hard. I work shift work for a power company and with a storm coming in I don't have the luxury of just leaving all the time. I had a hard time last year making the decision to have the wife and kids leave. I basically used my experience from the evacuation of Floyd to determine my time frame of "when". Basically, 48 hrs out I had them leave. Also I planned out a back way out of Jax due to the heavy traffic on 95. Wife took 301 north. Anyhow, in hindsight there was really no need to have them evacuate. Outside of the tree that fell on my house, no real damage was done. But the wife would not stay here and ride it out if I had to be at work. The problem here is if you are going to evacuate, we don't have the luxury of waiting till we know "how bad" it will be. We have to make a best guess and live with the decision. If we wait too long here, we will have no choice but to ride out the storm. BTW, good luck this upcoming season, and may all the storms be fish. (wishful thinking)

[Pebbles]

Staying in a Mobile home during any type of storm is scary.. specially for children. The wind just for some reason seems so much worse in a mobile home sound wise. Plus in the back of our heads we knew what risk would are running staying in there through the whole storm. When I lived in NC it was decided we wouldn't stay in our mobile home for anything over a weak TS and that only cause we were 20 miles inland.

It sounds like your kids and you have been frightened by the storms. And hours of fright like that is not good for any of you and leaving last minute can be very dangerous as I am sure you know. (But I woulda booked too if my house sounded like that LOL) Do you have any close by friends or family members with more sturdy houses that wouldn't mind you all staying with them for the main part of the storms? Then you can return after the actual storm. Going without elec/water can be annoying but nothing that isn't doable if you really want to stay close to home.

I agree to beenthru6 that deciding ahead of the storm season what you should leave for is probably a great idea. And always remember to prepare for a storm that is 1 cat higher then your expecting.. that way your never surprised if it ends up strengthening right before landfall.

Edit: I just wanted to add on a side note that it may be a good idea to keep in mind how family reacts to storms when picking what to stay/leave for. Mental trama from fear can be a very powerful thing, specially to kids. If your scared you usually can bet they are 100 times more so and this really should be taking into consideration

[Rainband]

simple answer. ALWAYS TRUST THE OFFICIALS. I have posted this a million times . "it's better to leave 10 times and not have had to, than it is to stay the one time you should have left" Stay safe everyone and enjoy the season.

[Pebbles]

simple answer. ALWAYS TRUST THE OFFICIALS. I have posted this a million times . "it's better to leave 10 times and not have had to, than it is to stay the one time you should have left" Stay safe everyone and enjoy the season.

OH that is 100 for sure.. the officials say to leave and there should be no question there. LOL was speaking on one where official hadn't chimed in.

[Rainband]

Pebbles(((((((( HUGS)))) it's so nice to have you back. Good point on the family view. We love storms however it's a good idea to keep those in mind that don't, especially children.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Jekyhe,

Never stay in a mobile home if you know your area is going to be withstanding at least tropical storm force winds. If you have a newer mobile home or pre-fab and its bolted down to the ground, you have a little more leeway into staying through a minimal tropical storm, but otherwise, leave. Especially with kids, staying could prove too traumatic or downright dangerous.
Mobile homes aren't merely dangerous because of their own construction... yours may be built pretty sturdy. -but is your neighbor's so well built??? Usually mobile homes are in parks with other mobiles. If one older home gets its roof peeled off, that roof will likely fly across the park and into someone else's home, causing broken windows or a "tear" in a wall that could now let the winds in, though not too strong, but enough to tear that home up, and so on.
I've witnessed mobiles "rolling over" from high winds and the people inside severly hurt by their personal items rolling right along with it and them!
If you plan a good route to safety, be that a friend's house or "out of town", drive it at night in bad weather, and double that time... that should give you an idea of how long out you need to evacuate. If your route is a major thoroughfare, like HWY95 or HWY10, realize you will be battling all the other evacuees. Try to use lesser-travelled roads.
Also be aware that if a storm is preceded far in advance by heavy rains, your route may be washed out by overflowing streams or standing water... that's why it is suggested to try your route in the rain. Always have an up to date map with you so you can make travel changes on the fly if somehow your route gets blocked... i.e. fallen tree or car accident.
Also, when evacuating, listen to local traffic radio - usually an AM station, and that can help you avoid gridlocks.
Stay safe, and keep thsoe kids safe too. Make them a part of your planning process so when a storm does hit, they can feel like they have a little control too... i.e. let them plan a route with you or practice drive it with you. Try to give them "duties" to do like be the one to bring the phone book, or read the check list of things to do, or whatever. Getting the kids involved does wonders to make them feel more at ease and less at the mercy of the chaos around them.

[vbhoutex]

Jekyhe,

Never stay in a mobile home if you know your area is going to be withstanding at least tropical storm force winds. If you have a newer mobile home or pre-fab and its bolted down to the ground, you have a little more leeway into staying through a minimal tropical storm, but otherwise, leave. Especially with kids, staying could prove too traumatic or downright dangerous.
Mobile homes aren't merely dangerous because of their own construction... yours may be built pretty sturdy. -but is your neighbor's so well built??? Usually mobile homes are in parks with other mobiles. If one older home gets its roof peeled off, that roof will likely fly across the park and into someone else's home, causing broken windows or a "tear" in a wall that could now let the winds in, though not too strong, but enough to tear that home up, and so on.
I've witnessed mobiles "rolling over" from high winds and the people inside severly hurt by their personal items rolling right along with it and them!
If you plan a good route to safety, be that a friend's house or "out of town", drive it at night in bad weather, and double that time... that should give you an idea of how long out you need to evacuate. If your route is a major thoroughfare, like HWY95 or HWY10, realize you will be battling all the other evacuees. Try to use lesser-travelled roads.
Also be aware that if a storm is preceded far in advance by heavy rains, your route may be washed out by overflowing streams or standing water... that's why it is suggested to try your route in the rain. Always have an up to date map with you so you can make travel changes on the fly if somehow your route gets blocked... i.e. fallen tree or car accident.
Also, when evacuating, listen to local traffic radio - usually an AM station, and that can help you avoid gridlocks.
Stay safe, and keep thsoe kids safe too. Make them a part of your planning process so when a storm does hit, they can feel like they have a little control too... i.e. let them plan a route with you or practice drive it with you. Try to give them "duties" to do like be the one to bring the phone book, or read the check list of things to do, or whatever. Getting the kids involved does wonders to make them feel more at ease and less at the mercy of the chaos around them.

EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT POST!!!!

[Swimdude]

This all boils down to one thing: Better safe than sorry. Even if the officials haven't issued an evacuation, go by your instincts. Use common sense as well - such as, is your home sturdy?

Evacuating:

$40 for gas
$60 - $150 for hotels; depending on number of rooms/nights
$50 for food
[Add $$ for younger children as well]
$75 for replacing that spoiled food in the fridge

Total: Approx. $300





Dying?

Priceless.

[HurriCat]

(Should this Topic get moved to the Preparedness Forum?) Anyways, ditto all that good info re: mobile homes. Here, though is how not to do it: I felt that Frances was going to be the ONE. I told the missus that we were going up north to relatives. So... her parents hear and announce that they might as well tag along. Doom! Next, they wanted to wait until 6am. Then they were driving a big van and just HAD to bring the bass-boat and trailer. They drove 50mph. They stopped and nearly every rest area. They insisted that we stop and eat. Now we were right in the middle of that traffic nightmare heading north! Then, right inside Georgia, they shot on ahead through a red light and we lost them. They ended up at a hotel close to an air force base, and we finally got to the relatives in Canton, GA. Wife almost had nervous breakdown, though, and all of this pure hell was because I let people overpower my inner-voice. Two things: If your "gut" says go, then go NOW - sometimes you just have to be an a-hole; and get those little walkie-talkie radios - I was behind my wifes' car and could guide her through the nightmare traffic of Atlanta. We would've lost one another without those radios!

[dhweather]

This probably does belong in the preparedness forum.

However, local officials are the ones to listen to when life or death
decisions are made, without exception. If local officials recommend
evacuation for low lying areas and mobile homes, then so be it.
Most areas prone to hurricane landfalls have zones, and nobody
knows the zones and evacuation plans better than local officials.

[jrod]

I live on the barrier island and they'll issue a manatory evacuation for anything, hurricane Erin in '95, Bertha in '96 that never got close, ect...

I have never evacuated and wont unless I expect sustained winds over 125mph and a surge over 10 feet and I do watch the pressure more than anything besides the track, anything under 950mb and I get worried.

[dhweather]

I live on the barrier island and they'll issue a manatory evacuation for anything, hurricane Erin in '95, Bertha in '96 that never got close, ect...

I have never evacuated and wont unless I expect sustained winds over 125mph and a surge over 10 feet and I do watch the pressure more than anything besides the track, anything under 950mb and I get worried.

Just rememeber, you only have to be wrong once.........

[Brent]

I have never evacuated and wont unless I expect sustained winds over 125mph and a surge over 10 feet and I do watch the pressure more than anything besides the track, anything under 950mb and I get worried.

Say... a storm like Charley(Cat 2 projected at landfall) is headed straight for you... you decide not to leave. In the final 6 hours before landfall it becomes almost a Cat 5.

Then your screwed.

[Pebbles]

I have never evacuated and wont unless I expect sustained winds over 125mph and a surge over 10 feet and I do watch the pressure more than anything besides the track, anything under 950mb and I get worried.

Say... a storm like Charley(Cat 2 projected at landfall) is headed straight for you... you decide not to leave. In the final 6 hours before landfall it becomes almost a Cat 5.

Then your screwed.

and unfortunately many were

[Cookiely]

Jekyhe,

Never stay in a mobile home if you know your area is going to be withstanding at least tropical storm force winds. If you have a newer mobile home or pre-fab and its bolted down to the ground, you have a little more leeway into staying through a minimal tropical storm, but otherwise, leave. Especially with kids, staying could prove too traumatic or downright dangerous.
Mobile homes aren't merely dangerous because of their own construction... yours may be built pretty sturdy. -but is your neighbor's so well built??? Usually mobile homes are in parks with other mobiles. If one older home gets its roof peeled off, that roof will likely fly across the park and into someone else's home, causing broken windows or a "tear" in a wall that could now let the winds in, though not too strong, but enough to tear that home up, and so on.
I've witnessed mobiles "rolling over" from high winds and the people inside severly hurt by their personal items rolling right along with it and them!
If you plan a good route to safety, be that a friend's house or "out of town", drive it at night in bad weather, and double that time... that should give you an idea of how long out you need to evacuate. If your route is a major thoroughfare, like HWY95 or HWY10, realize you will be battling all the other evacuees. Try to use lesser-travelled roads.
Also be aware that if a storm is preceded far in advance by heavy rains, your route may be washed out by overflowing streams or standing water... that's why it is suggested to try your route in the rain. Always have an up to date map with you so you can make travel changes on the fly if somehow your route gets blocked... i.e. fallen tree or car accident.
Also, when evacuating, listen to local traffic radio - usually an AM station, and that can help you avoid gridlocks.
Stay safe, and keep thsoe kids safe too. Make them a part of your planning process so when a storm does hit, they can feel like they have a little control too... i.e. let them plan a route with you or practice drive it with you. Try to give them "duties" to do like be the one to bring the phone book, or read the check list of things to do, or whatever. Getting the kids involved does wonders to make them feel more at ease and less at the mercy of the chaos around them.

EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT POST!!!!

I agree this is an excellent post and has a lot of useful info. Perhaps it could be stickied on the hurricane preparation page.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Jeykhe -- As others have said, err on the side of safety when you live in a mobile home. Just after Charlie, one of our Orlando news stations interviewed a family who rode out the storm in a mobile home with their kids. The father was openly crying and apologizing over the nightmare he had put his kids through. He pleaded to everyone to NOT stay no matter what.

We have had typical tropical bad storms all week here and this link will show you what a mild microburst can do to a mobile home. Photos are from approx 5:30 pm on June 16, 2005:

http://www.wesh.com/weather/4622089/detail.html

I have never evacuated and wont unless I expect sustained winds over 125mph and a surge over 10 feet

Aloha neighbor -- I hate leaving too, but unfortunately we have to cross high-rise bridges to leave the sandbars we live on. Since the cops won't let us cross them after the gusts get above 50 mph, we have to make the decision to stay or go much earlier than others. We have been SO LUCKY so far, and hope it continues.

Take care and welcome to the forum!
SB

[Brent]

Anyone in a mobile home should LEAVE even for a tropical storm... those things ARE NOT SAFE!!! Also remember, if your on the right side of a system then your going to have a tornado threat and even a small tornado can overturn and destroy mobile homes.