The SE Coast Of Florida & Hurricanes

[cyclonaut]

The SE Coast of Florida is currently experiencing a hurricane dry spell of unprecedented proportions..The last time a hurricane made landfall on this stretch of coastline was 13 years ago & this is the only hurricane to hit in the last 38 years..I am talking all categories here.

Since 1851 many hurricanes of all categories have made landfall in SE Florida..In the 36 years from 1851 to 1887 NO hurricanes were reported to have made landfall in this region...A CAT 3 struck in 1888 ending that dry spell which was the longest period with NO hurricanes making landfall in SE Fla that I can find.

Things remained quiet again until 1903 when a CAT 1 payed a visit to these shores..That weak hurricane was the only one in 36 years to strike until that dry spell was ended by the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926...Many history making hurricanes followed after that..As a matter of fact 13 hurricanes would make landfall here over the 40 years or so that followed..12 of those were major!

Then nothing at all until Andrew in 92.

Unfortunately Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history but one still can't ignore that this was the 1st hurricane to make landfall on this coastline in 25 years..Now Hurricane Andrew is the only hurricane to make landfall in this region in the last 38.

How long will this current dry spell lasts is anybody's guess???

The last time we came out of similar hurricane dry spell the flood gates opened after that 26 hurricane.

I don't know how long this region can keep dodging these bullets season after season..The one thing I have noticed is that when one does hit following a dry spell the blow can be quite significant.

SE Florida

[Anonymous]

Personally...I feel that a big storm (COUGH) GERT (COUGH) will impact this area in 2005.

[cyclonaut]

Personally...I feel that a big storm (COUGH) GERT (COUGH) will impact this area in 2005.

I'm thinkin Franklin will be "the one" but who knows?

I just got a feeling that this dry spell in terms of hurricanes here in SE Fla is closer to ending than continuing too much further..

[Steve H.]

Well, maybe if that dryspell ends and SE Florida gets hit, us central Floridians can take back the $31 million in relief Miami-Dade took out of our pockets LOL!

[SouthernWx]

The lull in major hurricanes along the SE Florida "Gold Coast" (between Miami Beach and West Palm Beach) in all likelyhood cannot go on much longer; especially in light of the extremely close calls in recent years (Frances, Jeanne, Floyd, etc).

That is a great concern to myself and many hurricane experts and emergency management experts. When and if a large, intense hurricane once again impact Miami/ Miami Beach, Hallandale, Fort Lauderdale, Boca Raton, Delray Beach, or Palm Beach head on....will there be enough time to evacuate everyone in harms way, will everyone in vunerable areas evacuate, and what will be the aftermath.

I'm afraid we saw a small sad glimpse of what the future holds in 1992. While its true Andrew was an extremely violent hurricane, it 1) was also extremely small in diameter, and 2) moved quickly across south Dade and the Everglades, meaning storm surge and flooding were not a major problem (at least not compared to wind damage). The compact eyewall of Andrew directly impacted around 350,000 residents.....compared to between 3,000,000 and 5,000,000 million if a large cat-4 hurricane were to take a similar path.

Even though downtown Miami, Miami Beach, and all of Broward and Palm Beach counties were spared, the damage and human suffering in the south Dade impact area was incredible. While the next large and intense hurricane to impact Dade county won't likely rival Andrew in raw wind power, a 140-145 mph hurricane with 170-180 mph peak gusts will cause tremendous damage...and over a much wider swath than Andrew caused. In addition, a large hurricane of that magnitude would mean far more impact from storm surge flooding along barrier islands (Miami Beach, Key Biscayne) and immediate beachfront areas over a large area....as well as serious flooding due to hours of torrential rainfall; especially if the hurricane moved slowly. Rainfall totals for such a large hurricane can easily reach 10-20", and during the great September 1947 cat-4, some areas of south Florida recorded over 40" of rain in a 48-72 hour period.

Compared to Andrew, this type of major hurricane wouldn't move through quickly so recovery work could begin the next day. It might be days instead of hours before flooding subsided in some areas...and some barrier islands could be inaccessible for a week or more (just like what occurred at Pensacola Beach after Ivan and near Charleston after Hugo).

Also, another area of deep concern is the Florida Keys. With the exception of North Key Largo, no portion of the Keys has experienced a major hurricane since 1965. The lower Keys and Key West haven't been struck by a major hurricane since 1948. When I see reports that 30-40% of Keys residents failed to evacuate during hurricane Andrew (a near miss) or 100 mph Georges, it makes me cringe.
Someday that attitude is IMO going to cost a lot of lives down there....because all powerful hurricanes don't miss....or weaken over Hispanola before striking the Keys.

The very fact waters around the Florida Keys are so bathwater warm in August and September should make prompt evacuation of an approaching hurricane a "no brainer" for Keys residents and visitors. In 1935, the infamous and deadly "Labor Day hurricane" was only a strong tropical storm when it passed over Andros Island. Only 36 hours later when it crossed the middle Keys, the hurricane's intensity was insane...sustained winds of at least 190-200 mph, with peak gusts
of 230 mph or more.

What the F4 tornado-like winds didn't kill, the 18-20' foot storm surge did. The Keys inside the eyewall went underwater....ships unfortunate enough to be caught in Florida Bay or outside the reef were washed and blown well into the Everglades. Even the overseas railway was washed away....the scene afterword reminiscent of an airliner crash. It's pertinent to note that 3 of the 4 category 5 hurricanes to strike America since 1845 have struck some portion of the Florida Keys (incl Andrew, although a very small area); also the severe 1919 cat-4 was borderline cat-5 (927 mb/ 150-155 mph), meaning 4 of the 5 most intense U.S. hurricanes of record struck the Keys.

Also, it doesn't take a cat-5 monster to put most of the low lying Keys underwater. A 130 mph (945 mb) cat-3 hurricane means an 8-10' storm surge...a 145 mph (930 mb) cat-4 means 10-13'. A 10' foot storm surge at Islamorada, Marathon, or Key West is SERIOUS business. If hurricane Georges (1998) had explosively deepened over the Florida Straits...say to 130 mph or so, many of those Keys residents who didn't leave and ended up standing in ankle or knee-deep storm surge inside their home would have drowned

It's only a matter of time.....both for the SE Florida Gold Coast and the Florida Keys & Key West.

PW

[Derek Ortt]

Irene did hit the area in 1999. It has only been 6 years since our last one

[cyclonaut]

Irene did hit the area in 1999. It has only been 6 years since our last one

Notice I am saying the South East Coast of Florida.

Not SW coast or Flamingo etc.

[Derek Ortt]

the hurricane force gusts and the strongest winds were on the East Coast of Florida.

From the south is the way in which Miami receives the majority of its hurricanes

[HURAKAN]

Let see how long the dry spell lasts.

Cyclonaut, I think "Franklin" may want to continue being used over the years, but what an entrance to history.

[cyclonaut]

the hurricane force gusts and the strongest winds were on the East Coast of Florida.

From the south is the way in which Miami receives the majority of its hurricanes

But she didnt make actual landfall along the SE coast..That the criteria I am going with here.

[jdray]

Daytona to Savannah is way more overdue than SE Florida.

[clfenwi]

If I had to bet on one stretch of coastline to get hit by a hurricane this year, it would be the stretch from Key West to Miami.

Part of my reasoning for that is historical analog. When you look over the record for years similar to last year, you tend not to see a busy year followed by zero landfalls, instead, you usually see a South Florida landfall among landfalling storms in the following year.

Examples of this:

1928 - Two hurricanes landfall in Palm Beach area, one tropical storm runs the Gulf Coast
1929 - Key Largo hurricane landfall


1932 - Two tropical storms
1933 - Two hurricanes brush the Keys, two hit the south-central-east coast
1934 - Two landfalling tropical storms with a third that probably affected Pensacola.
1935 - The Labor Day Storm, plus a west-east hurricane brushing the southeast coast, also the so-called 'Yankee Storm' (hurricane) hits south FL.


1964 - Three hurricanes, one hitting Jacksonville, one running up the east coast, another going southwest-northeast across south Florida (passing just west of Key West), plus a tropical storm.
1965 - A tropical storm hits the panhandle and Hurricane Betsy hits south Florida.

Counter-example

1926 - One hurricane hits the central coast, another brushes the southeast coast (sw-ne), and a third hits Miami.

1927 - Nothing

[otowntiger]

Based on your map defining southeast Florida, I'd say your dry spell is over. Didn't Frances and Jeanne make landfall there, albeit in the extreme northern portion or the region? Seriously, you say it is a dry spell of unprecented proportions, well it appears that in the last 150 years or so SE Florida has had quite a few dry spells of that length. I dont' think it is unusual at all based on climatalogical history.

[Brent]

I think Frances and Jeanne are considered to have hit East Central FL. Southeast FL seems to be Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach(?)

[wxman57]

Irene, also, was questionably a hurricane. I don't believe that any sustained hurricane-force winds were observed.

I had put together a web page about Florida major hurricane landfalls before the start of the 2004 season. Take a look at images 4 and 7 - the period from 1944-1969. During that period, the Atlantic SSTs were in warm phase (like now) and the eastern Pacific was cool (like now).

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florida/

[Brent]

Irene, also, was questionably a hurricane. I don't believe that any sustained hurricane-force winds were observed.

I had put together a web page about Florida major hurricane landfalls before the start of the 2004 season. Take a look at images 4 and 7 - the period from 1944-1969. During that period, the Atlantic SSTs were in warm phase (like now) and the eastern Pacific was cool (like now).

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florida/

[hookemfins]

I think you forgot about David in 1979. Came ashore in Palm Beach.

Irene may have come ashore near Flamingo, the center traveled over the entrire length of the Dade County. Strongest winds reported over fowry Rock.

What does all that mean, nothing. We will hear the same aruments every year until one hits then the "told ya so's" come rolling out. Gee, maybe after last years 4 hurricane furry the hurricane gods will give Florida a rest this year. Or maybe (cue ery music) those people I disagree with will get their wish.

[Brent]

I think maybe this thread should be about significant hurricanes... Irene was barely a hurricane and most of the strong winds were over water, so that's not considered "significant" IMO. Significant would be 100 mph+ plus in South Florida... it's been awhile since that. Georges just barely clipped the Keys with that in 1998.

[Derek Ortt]

Most hurricanes though to hit Dade, no not hit from the east. Therefore, to exclude all of those hitting from the south, means excluding most Dade hurricanes

Dade is somewhat like Hawaii, though not as extreme in that the majority of TC's do not hit from the east as one would assume, but from the south

I would classify Irene as significant as it did 600-800 million worth fo damage from flooding in Dade

[Brent]

I would classify Irene as significant as it did 600-800 million worth fo damage from flooding in Dade

Significant as in flooding, yes, but not wind. A Tropical Wave can cause significant flooding if it doesn't move for days.