GFS HINTING AT SOME SORT OF GULF LOW DEVELOPING

[KatDaddy]

For what its worth......

From the Lake Charles AFD:

GFS
HINTING AT SOME SORT OF GULF LO DEVELOPING BY LATER IN THE WEEK
AND WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE TX CST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED W/ THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA AND SMALL POPS RETURN FOR THU...
LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.MARINE...GENERALLY LGT WINDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD W/ HI PRES
IN CONTROL. TAKING A WAIT/SEE ATTITUDE TOWARD INCREASING WINDS
LATE IN THE WEEK THANKS TO GFS-PROGGED SYSTEM IN THE SWRN GULF.

[KatDaddy]

Hmmmmmm....more AFDs but still its only the GFS that indicates tropical development.

Dallas AFD

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY HELD DRY/HOT THEME THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER SRN CONUS. LATER IN THE WEEK (THURS/BEYOND)
...MED RANGE MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) HINT AT SOME TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF REGION...THEN MOVE THIS
SYSTEM WWD UNDER THE STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO S TX/RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...BEFORE PULLING SOME OF THIS TROPICAL MSTR NWD INTO N TX
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH A FCST. FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BRAZOS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY/FRI
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ALL AREAS SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH IT BEING
LATE JUNE...THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING FOR SURE.


Houston-Galveston AFD

GFS TRYING TO DEVELOP A
EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN ON TUESDAY AND THEN CARRIES IT
BENEATH THE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF IT IS
CORRECT...(VERY BIG IF) THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN ON THURSDAY
AND WITH A VENGEANCE. 00Z GFS SPITS OUT A LARGE AREA OF 3+ INCHES OF
TOTAL ACCUMULATED RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST BY 00Z SUN JUN
26TH. I'M NOT BUYING INTO THIS YET.

Corpus Christi AFD

SHOULD ALSO
NOTE THAT THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL WAVE THAT FOLLOWS CLOSE
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND IT NOW SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOSED SFC LOW
NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON MVG NW. THIS WILL HAVE WATCHED
CLOSELY BUT THIS IS ALL SPECULATION ATTM.

Brownsville AFD

IN THE UPCOMING WEEK THE GFS MODEL INDICATES
SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER THE 60
HOUR MARK. THE GFS IS IN THE OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING LESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME REGION. SO
WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE BUYING INTO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SCENARIO FOR THE MARINE
REGIONS.

[weatherwindow]

yes, i know its the convective feedback problem....but i've been following the tropics, both as a professional necessity as well as a hobby, for 15 years. i just don't remember a year in which the gfs/avn was spinning up lows in such "machine-gun" fashion. sort of using up its credibility?.....oh well thats another post.....i vote to disregard anyting that is not backed up by nogaps or the cmc....at this rate, we should wait for a LLC before we believe the gfs

[Steve]

Kat,

I started to post a thread about it last night that I cancelled. The UKMET and Canadian 00Z runs all wanted to arc some moisture over toward the central TX coast. Nothing looked organized on those models so I blew the thread off. But it's the CMC, GFS and UKM all sending "moisture" over that way.

Steve

[KatDaddy]

Steve thanks for posting the info. I did not get a chance to look at the other model runs.

We desperately need some significant rains along the Upper TX Coast. Its getting very dry around here.

[robjay]

Where's the link for the gfs model?

[HURAKAN]

Remember that the GFS over the last days have been having convective feedbacks, so be careful with the excitement!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If the system over the Eastern Pacific forms over the Eastern Pacific an moves north. The chance will be gone for this.

[KatDaddy]

GFS links:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

[dhweather]

If the system over the Eastern Pacific forms over the Eastern Pacific an moves north. The chance will be gone for this.

Please help me understand - what warrants an "eek" ?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A system that develops on the Pacific side. Can take the energy from any system that is developing over the Gulf. Also the outflow from the other system can increase shear over the other..

[Guest]

If the system over the Eastern Pacific forms over the Eastern Pacific an moves north. The chance will be gone for this.

Please help me understand - what warrants an "eek" ?

please help me understand what warrants your interest in his "eek"

[x-y-no]

The GFS has been spinning up a little something in the Yucatan channel and taking it across Florida on Monday for the last seven runs now (except yesterday's 18Z which took it north to Alabama) but it doesn't look too impressive in any of them, at least until it heads out to sea and phases with the front out there. Neither the Canadian nor the nogaps nor the European see it, so I'm thinking the GFS is just overhyping the little trof that's going to be draped across Florida at that time.

It also spins up a second little something further west the next day, and that heads west to Texas and/or Mexico as the ridge builds in over it. Same thing with the other models - they don't see it.

My opinion - probably no more than a couple of moderate rain events.

[Steve]

>>My opinion - probably no more than a couple of moderate rain events.

What I'm thinking which is why I nixed the thread I was starting. What I really think it is is the trof that came through here this morning as it breaks off and backs west (possibly as an ULL or even with the western edge as a boundary).

Steve

[dhweather]

If the system over the Eastern Pacific forms over the Eastern Pacific an moves north. The chance will be gone for this.

Please help me understand - what warrants an "eek" ?

please help me understand what warrants your interest in his "eek"

I'm trying to understand different peoples reactions to events.

"eek" with a developed system is one thing, "eek" with nothing, well, that's
totally different. That helps me establish a baseline for a posters patterns for using such icons.

[Guest]

roger that sir

[dhweather]

It's not very funny when there is a legitimate interest by someone dropping by to see what's going on in the tropics, and they find
something like


EEK - THERE'S A BLOB EEK EEK EEK EEK EEK

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

O please give me a break


Also I was talking about if the other system develops. Then it could suck the energy from this one.

[southerngale]

I think there's a little too much being made over someone posting a dern emoticon.

[kevin]

Matt is saying that a EPAC storm will hinder development in the BoC. Since he (along with myself) would like to see our BoC 'blob' develop, this is bad news, and hence eek.