A possible tropical cyclone for the Eastern Pacific?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears to be a developing system near 9.8 north/92 west. See how the convection is starting to fan out around that black area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

The Gfs forecasts it to develop a weak cyclone over the next few days. But with a northwestward track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/52.html

The Cmc develps a cyclone near this area. But moves it westward.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/94.html

The MM5FSU forecasts the development of a cyclone to. But takes it north with a threat to Mexico.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/11.html

The Navy NGP shows develpment over the next few days. Then pushs it westward.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/56.html

Also the Nam model been tracking to develop it.

So it appears to be slowly coming together over the last 24 hours. In has good model support.


Shear levels are decreasing 5 to 10 knots.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

So development may happen...We will see!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also if this pulls another Adrain, then that will be telling about the Atlantic hurricane season. Reason why is a storm moving east or northeastward means the subtropical jet is at low lats this year. We will see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

12z update

It looks like it is trying to form some outflow around a broad center near 10 north/97.0 west. Which is a good signs for development.

The Cmc is showing devement over the next 24 hours. With a westward movement.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/57.html


The Gfs is forecasting the development of this system way closer to the coast of Mexico. In which case it would have to redevelop there. If it where to. It forecasts a northwestward track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/40.html


Not unlike the Gfs, the Ukmet forecasts a system to develop closer to the coast. Then northwest track.

Right now it appears that the CMC has the center on key. So a westward movement is expected. Develpment is looking good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.06.2005



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 13.9N 97.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 20.06.2005 13.9N 97.6W WEAK

00UTC 21.06.2005 13.4N 99.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.06.2005 14.3N 101.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.06.2005 15.2N 103.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.06.2005 15.2N 105.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.06.2005 16.2N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH







THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[senorpepr]

You were pointing out the subtropical jet (STJ) placement...

It appears to me that parts of the STJ is pretty far north for mid June. We do have to lows off the coast of Oregon and over New England. With the first low, the STJ rounds the base of the trough around central California. Thereafter, the STJ rides up the ridge in place over the plains states, which is helping to make conditions plenty warm around my neck of the woods. (mid 90s are forecast later this week here in Nebraska. Many places around the central plains will see 100s) The STJ reaches the apex of the ridge around the Hudson Bay before turning back south to round the base of the trough, near Tennessee and Alabama.

However, during the next few days, both of these lows are forecast to deepen and slightly retrograde southwestward. By the time the workweek begins, the upper-level pattern begins to reorient itself more zonally near the American/Canadian border. (Of course, with some fingers of the STJ remaining over the Southeast as well as California).

Here's a tip for everyone: When finding the subtropical jet, look at the 200mb chart for the stream of higher winds that matches up with the -11C isotherm (or line of each temperature) on the 500mb chart. The average latitude for the STJ is around 28 degrees (in the northern hemisphere) and is normally found with cirrus and transverse banding on a satellite image.

As for the polar front jet: look at the 200mb chart during summer time, 300mb during winter, and 250mb during transition seasons. Find the stream of higher winds that matches up with the -17C isotherm on the 500mb chart.

On thing of note, the temperatures listed above are estimates and can vary a few degrees.

Of course, there are the tropical easterly jet that typically forms over southern Asia and is a big player in the monsoon season, and the arctic jet with normally is around 75N but can dig further south during the heart of winter.