Is it possible?

[JTD]

Is it more than remotely possible for a tropical storm say with winds of 60 mph to spin up to a category 5 165 mph storm in 20-24 hours?

The reason I ask is this because I was just thinking what if a tropical storm was forecast to hit say Miami, Houston or New Orleans and no evacs were ordered or much if any precautions taken and then it spins up to a cat 5.

Presumably, there'd be chaos in every conceivable hurricane preparatory field.

But I find it hard to believe it's meterologically possible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ask Hurricane Camille or the 1935 labar day hurricane about that. That would be a big suprize for people wenting to wait it out.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I have three situations to share with you:

1. 1935 FL Keys Hurricane

Hours from last position as tropical storm to first position as category 5 (data provided by UNISYS...we know the winds are stronger but this is for timing purposes):
ADV LAT LONG DAY/HOUR WIND (KT) PRES CATEGORY
13 23.60 -76.30 09/01/06Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
20 24.50 -80.10 09/03/00Z 140 892 HURRICANE-5

42 Hours

2. Super Typhoon Forrest

Typhoon Forrest in September 1983 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean deepened by 100 mb (976 to 876 mb) in just under 24 hr (Roger Edson, personal communication). Estimated surface sustained winds increased a maximum of 15 m/s (30 kt, 35 mph) in 6 hr and 44 m/s (85 kt, 98 mph) in one day (from 33 to 77 m/s [65 to 150 kt, 75 to 173 mph]).


3. Hurricane Gilbert

In the Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb in a 24 hour period for a 3 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 57 to 82 m/s (110 kt to 160 kt, 127 mph to 184 mph) in that 24 hour period.

Sidenote- And Hurricane Beulah in 1967 underwent a 6.33 mb/hr drop over a six hour period.

Numbers 2, 3, and sidenote provided by NHC/NOAA FAQ.

[dhweather]

Yes, it is possible. Not likely, but it only takes once to become a
deadly catastrophe. Camille went from 60kts to 105kts in 24 hours,
and 90kts to 140kts in 24 hours

Date: 14-22 AUG 1969
Hurricane CAMILLE
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 19.40 -82.00 08/14/18Z 50 991 TROPICAL STORM
2 19.70 -82.70 08/15/00Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
3 20.10 -83.30 08/15/06Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
4 20.70 -83.80 08/15/12Z 85 970 HURRICANE-2
5 21.20 -84.10 08/15/18Z 100 964 HURRICANE-3
6 22.30 -84.40 08/16/00Z 90 - HURRICANE-2
7 23.10 -85.20 08/16/06Z 105 - HURRICANE-3
8 23.70 -85.90 08/16/12Z 120 - HURRICANE-4
9 24.20 -86.50 08/16/18Z 130 908 HURRICANE-4
10 25.20 -87.20 08/17/00Z 140 905 HURRICANE-5
11 26.00 -87.70 08/17/06Z 155 - HURRICANE-5
12 27.00 -88.20 08/17/12Z 160 - HURRICANE-5
13 28.30 -88.70 08/17/18Z 165 - HURRICANE-5
14 29.40 -89.10 08/18/00Z 165 909 HURRICANE-5
15 30.70 -89.60 08/18/06Z 100 - HURRICANE-3
16 32.20 -90.00 08/18/12Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
17 33.40 -90.10 08/18/18Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
18 34.70 -90.00 08/19/00Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
19 36.00 -89.30 08/19/06Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20 37.00 -88.00 08/19/12Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
21 37.70 -86.00 08/19/18Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
22 38.00 -84.80 08/20/00Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
23 37.40 -80.20 08/20/06Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24 37.30 -77.00 08/20/12Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
25 37.00 -75.10 08/20/18Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
26 36.60 -73.40 08/21/00Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
27 36.70 -70.90 08/21/06Z 45 - TROPICAL STORM
28 37.30 -68.40 08/21/12Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
29 38.00 -64.90 08/21/18Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
30 39.20 -61.40 08/22/00Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
31 40.80 -58.20 08/22/06Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
32 43.00 -54.00 08/22/12Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM

[Anonymous]

I dont think it could without warning like camille today as the NHC is pretty good with forecasts

[DoctorHurricane2003]

There would have to be one heck of an anticyclone over the system with extremely fast ventilation......that's how you get those. I'm sure with today's equipment meteorologists can spot such super-ventilation areas.

[Brent]

I dont think it could without warning like camille today as the NHC is pretty good with forecasts

I don't think so either... unless something caused a recon plane to not be in there(usually the last 12 hours or so before landfall), a plane is ALWAYS out there(longer if the hurricane is already major). That's how we knew instantly Charley was going from 105 to 150 mph... recon. Had that not been out there, we may not have known until we saw the damage the next day.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Charley sure bombed fast. It was not intill recon got into the storm that they found out that he was 145 mph.

[JTD]

Wow thanks for the info. I didn't realize that some of the more famous storms spun up so quickly.

Totally agree that the NHC would probably predict it today. Whether people believed a t.s. would become a cat 5 in 24 hours while that's a different question all together.

[Pebbles]

I don't think that the NHC predicted Charley would do what it did. I remember sitting there utterly astounded with everyone else watching it make a beeline for the coast and bombing out.. was in fearful tears for FL. Anyone wanna look through the old discussions and see if that was a possibility?

Edit: and think what he mighta done if he only had a few hours more before landfall! *quivers in fear*

[southerngale]

Wow thanks for the info. I didn't realize that some of the more famous storms spun up so quickly.

Totally agree that the NHC would probably predict it today. Whether people believed a t.s. would become a cat 5 in 24 hours while that's a different question all together.

Yeah, but keep in mind the NHC readily admits that the hardest thing to predict is the intensity. I remember them forecasting it too low several times last year.

[Anonymous]

EXAMPLE:::

5pm- 60 mph/991 mb
8pm- 70 mph/985 mb
11pm-85 mph/977 mb
2am-110 mph/961 mb
5am-125 mph/950 mb
8am-140 mph/942 mb
11am-150 mph/934 mb
2pm-165 mph/923 mb
5pm-175 mph/915 mb
8pm-185 mph/904 mb

[dhweather]

Indeed - they openly and vividly admit they have extremely little
skill in forecasting intensity - that's a tough one to nail down.

[Swimdude]

Camille was a very special case though... And it's unlikely for that to happen, but tropical records are broken in some way, shape, or form nearly every season. So it's bound to happen eventually.

[Hurricanehink]

I know it's a different basin, but Hurricane Elida in 2002 in the EPAC did this:

4 12.10 -102.30 07/24/00Z 55 994 TROPICAL STORM
5 12.30 -103.70 07/24/06Z 70 984 HURRICANE-1
6 12.70 -105.10 07/24/12Z 110 952 HURRICANE-3
7 13.20 -106.60 07/24/18Z 120 942 HURRICANE-4
8 13.80 -108.00 07/25/00Z 130 931 HURRICANE-4
9 14.30 -109.50 07/25/06Z 140 921 HURRICANE-5

Tropical storm to Cat. 5 in 30 hours.

Kenna from the same year did something similar

7 13.60 -105.70 10/23/12Z 60 990 TROPICAL STORM
8 14.20 -106.90 10/23/18Z 75 980 HURRICANE-1
9 14.90 -108.00 10/24/00Z 90 970 HURRICANE-2
10 15.50 -108.50 10/24/06Z 105 955 HURRICANE-3
11 16.40 -108.80 10/24/12Z 125 935 HURRICANE-4
12 17.30 -108.80 10/24/18Z 140 917 HURRICANE-5

TS to Cat. 5 in 30 hours.