Convection over Yucatan and Cuba

[boca]

What's up with the convection over these areas is it just daytime thunderstorms or a systems possibly developing even though its over land for most part.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Could be the system the Gfs is forming

This shows that it develops a system then moves it northeastward into Florida. But it looks to be very weak. Then it turns it extratropical very fast. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/71.html

30 years of storms that took this track.
Tropical cyclones that have tooken this track.

Bonnie
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Gordon
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Yes it is a little to the west. Hurricane Opal!!!
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Alberto 1982
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Subtropical storm 1 1982
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Subtropical storm 1 1976
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[boca]

look about 100 miles WSW of key west and you see a slight twist. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm waiting for the 00z models to back this. If this doe's happen the convection will pull into the Gulf durning tonight. Then slowly start getting picked up by the trough. This storm could spin up into a Bill like storm. Need to wait a few more hours.

Could be getting interesting much earlier then we thought!!!

[boca]

So Matt my eyes weren't playing tricks on me, you saw the same thing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs shows a system. In which case it show it starting to develop as soon as 12 to 18 hours. I would expect that that convection is what it sees.

[Kennethb]

And we have a rare middle of June front that has made its way into the Gulf. This is something else that has to be watched if it hangs around for a while.