By the way...I seem to remember that TT said after this trough the rest of the month would be dry. I am 98% sure that is not going to be right!
I have upped the amount of my bet to 2 inches. 1.5" is in the bag. In fact the ETA is hinting at some southerly flow thunderstorms Monday night. While, I am not ready to bank on that, it would sure be a nice bonus.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
This run is FANTABULOUS!!! It shows way below normal temps from this coming Wednesday right to the end of the month. Besides that it shows a MINIMUM of 1 inch of rain over the next 10 days. Given the fact the GFS has been stingy on rainfall quite often this spiring, I am feeling GOOD!!!!!
You can bet if we get 9 consecutive below normal days to finish out the month, I will be screaming it from the mountain tops! In summary...here are the fun milestones we could see this month....
The first June to average 2 degrees above normal in the north central part of the nation and 2 degrees below normal here since 1971....led to a cold winter
The first year since 1956 to have a May average 56.5 or higher and June average 59.0 or lower...that winter was...you guessed it...COLD...remember the previous year to have that combo was 1949.
and finally, the all important WET JUNE! All we need to reach is 2.4", although I would like to hit 2.5 just to make it really nice.
If we hit two or three of these I will be happy. I know TT will be hoping against all hope that I am wrong.
You can bet if we get 9 consecutive below normal days to finish out the month, I will be screaming it from the mountain tops! In summary...here are the fun milestones we could see this month....
The first June to average 2 degrees above normal in the north central part of the nation and 2 degrees below normal here since 1971....led to a cold winter
The first year since 1956 to have a May average 56.5 or higher and June average 59.0 or lower...that winter was...you guessed it...COLD...remember the previous year to have that combo was 1949.
and finally, the all important WET JUNE! All we need to reach is 2.4", although I would like to hit 2.5 just to make it really nice.
If we hit two or three of these I will be happy. I know TT will be hoping against all hope that I am wrong.
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TT-SEA
I am actually hoping it is wet the rest of June.
Particularly from thunderstorms which could happen based on the pattern predicted for Tuesday night. That is fun... and quite common in the summer.
I hate when everything goes dormant in the summer... I would love an inch of rain per week. That is what it takes to keep grass green in July.
The greatest irony MAY come next winter when despite EVERY sign in the world pointing towards a cold, snowy winter in Seattle... very little happens.
In the end... this past winter will probably look better than the one coming. I am basing this on extensive research. To the point that my wife thinks I am competely obsessed.
So... I HOPE it does rain another 2 inches in June. Bring on some thunderstorms.
Particularly from thunderstorms which could happen based on the pattern predicted for Tuesday night. That is fun... and quite common in the summer.
I hate when everything goes dormant in the summer... I would love an inch of rain per week. That is what it takes to keep grass green in July.
The greatest irony MAY come next winter when despite EVERY sign in the world pointing towards a cold, snowy winter in Seattle... very little happens.
In the end... this past winter will probably look better than the one coming. I am basing this on extensive research. To the point that my wife thinks I am competely obsessed.
So... I HOPE it does rain another 2 inches in June. Bring on some thunderstorms.
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TT-SEA
Dude... 1971 was a strong La Nina year. Even in the summer.
That alone means that you can throw out any comparison.
I do not care if every single day in June of 2005 was identical across the world to June of 1971.
The coming winter would still be VERY different than 1971-72.
That should NOT be one of your three criteria for this month.
That alone means that you can throw out any comparison.
I do not care if every single day in June of 2005 was identical across the world to June of 1971.
The coming winter would still be VERY different than 1971-72.
That should NOT be one of your three criteria for this month.
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TT-SEA
In fact 1971 stands out as the one of the strongest La Ninas in the summer months in the last 50 years!!!
Of course guess when it happened prior to 1971???
1956.
We are still El Nino territory and its June. Nowhere even close to 1956 and 1971.
Also... the SOI has been increasingly pointing towards a resurgence of El Nino.
The wet June MAY help us a little. 1956 and 1971 should be thrown out. I am surprised that you follow these paths. You need to be WAY more objective.
Finding some small similarity does NOT constitute a guide to the future.
This coming winter will likely be warmer and drier than normal.
Of course guess when it happened prior to 1971???
1956.
We are still El Nino territory and its June. Nowhere even close to 1956 and 1971.
Also... the SOI has been increasingly pointing towards a resurgence of El Nino.
The wet June MAY help us a little. 1956 and 1971 should be thrown out. I am surprised that you follow these paths. You need to be WAY more objective.
Finding some small similarity does NOT constitute a guide to the future.
This coming winter will likely be warmer and drier than normal.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...You have yet to see if I am right. There is no indication of an El Nino at all right now. All of the models say weak cold anomolies for the reminder of the year, beginning in a couple of weeks.
Doesn't it seem odd that our weather is following a sequence of events that has been caused by La Nina in the past? Another sign things are whacked this year.
Doesn't it seem odd that our weather is following a sequence of events that has been caused by La Nina in the past? Another sign things are whacked this year.
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TT-SEA
You are the one blindly following 1956 and 1971.
Two years that cannot be the same as the rest of 2005 given the current global situation.
You are assuming that a similar June will lead to a similar winter when it cannot possibly happen.
Again... even if June of 2005 ends up EXACTLY like June of 1956 and 1971... the coming winter will be very different.
Two years that cannot be the same as the rest of 2005 given the current global situation.
You are assuming that a similar June will lead to a similar winter when it cannot possibly happen.
Again... even if June of 2005 ends up EXACTLY like June of 1956 and 1971... the coming winter will be very different.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
By the way...I think I have decided to make a snow gun before next winter! A kid from Wisconsin told me about a forum for people who are obsessed with the things! Even the winters in Wisconsin have sucked lately. He told me they have only had snow one out of the past four Christmases. All it takes to make snow is a night with temps below freezing, and we get plenty of those....and the equipment of course.
For anyone interested, here is the link. I am telling you some of these people are out of their minds!
http://www.snowguns.com
For anyone interested, here is the link. I am telling you some of these people are out of their minds!
http://www.snowguns.com
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Why we will have at least a small chance of a shower into next week, the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF show another deep trough digging through our area by late next weekend into the following monday work week. So if it`s correct, we yet again could be looking at more greater chances of seeing some precip duirng that time. And also could be a bit rainy on my way out of town to Ohio on the monday the 27th.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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First day in over two weeks where I woke up and it's sunny! Pretty awesome!
As for this week...NICE! Monday and Tuesday looks like gems with temperatures approaching 80F and plenty of sunshine...with a light offshore flow. As for Wednesday and Thursday...models are having a hard time with the cutoff low down in northern CA. They never do well with these situations...models predict the low will eject northeast right over Western Washington. I'm not buying it...I say the low weakens and moves east over central OR...meaning ALL week should be sunny and near 80F.
GFS long range models keep the idea of trough west/ridge central and east. We'll see...it's almost July...things should be changing.
TT-SEA,
I'm not going to debate this "typical" June with you...from my standpoint (and many others) this is NOT a normal June. That's my final word.
Anthony
As for this week...NICE! Monday and Tuesday looks like gems with temperatures approaching 80F and plenty of sunshine...with a light offshore flow. As for Wednesday and Thursday...models are having a hard time with the cutoff low down in northern CA. They never do well with these situations...models predict the low will eject northeast right over Western Washington. I'm not buying it...I say the low weakens and moves east over central OR...meaning ALL week should be sunny and near 80F.
GFS long range models keep the idea of trough west/ridge central and east. We'll see...it's almost July...things should be changing.
TT-SEA,
I'm not going to debate this "typical" June with you...from my standpoint (and many others) this is NOT a normal June. That's my final word.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
You just predicted a week of 80 degree weather.
That is hotter than normal.
That starts to offset the colder than normal weather earlier in the month huh???
Getting closer to normal... I do believe!!!
Come on. This is Seattle. Not Kansas City or Dallas. June in Seattle is not known to be a hot, sunny month.
That is hotter than normal.
That starts to offset the colder than normal weather earlier in the month huh???
Getting closer to normal... I do believe!!!
Come on. This is Seattle. Not Kansas City or Dallas. June in Seattle is not known to be a hot, sunny month.
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TT-SEA
The GFS definitely moved the low for later in the week farther west.
You know what that means????
Warmer weather.
I doubt that Snow_Wizzard will be so cocky when Wednesday - Saturday has at least some days WELL into the 70's.
This is a trend guys. Summer is evolving right before our eyes. No obvious HUGE ridge. Its just slowly evolving with each run.
A huge ridge would be abnormal. This pattern is VERY normal. Even a little above normal.
You know what that means????
Warmer weather.
I doubt that Snow_Wizzard will be so cocky when Wednesday - Saturday has at least some days WELL into the 70's.
This is a trend guys. Summer is evolving right before our eyes. No obvious HUGE ridge. Its just slowly evolving with each run.
A huge ridge would be abnormal. This pattern is VERY normal. Even a little above normal.
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TT-SEA
Almost 70 degrees at my house already. Should be a WARM day.
Fourth day in a row above normal.
First half of June averaged below normal... the last half will AVERAGE above normal.
That is not to say there will not be a below normal day in there. But the period from June 16-30 will be above normal.
It all works out. Nothing extreme either way.
BTW - Anthony you may be correct in your prediction. EVERY single time there is a trough to the west... Snow_Wizzard under-predicts high temperatures.
The last 3 days are a perfect example. He thought it would be a cool, rainy weekend but instead we have been at 70 degrees with lots of sun.
Trough to the west... add 10-15 degrees to Snow_Wizzard's predicted highs!!
Fourth day in a row above normal.
First half of June averaged below normal... the last half will AVERAGE above normal.
That is not to say there will not be a below normal day in there. But the period from June 16-30 will be above normal.
It all works out. Nothing extreme either way.
BTW - Anthony you may be correct in your prediction. EVERY single time there is a trough to the west... Snow_Wizzard under-predicts high temperatures.
The last 3 days are a perfect example. He thought it would be a cool, rainy weekend but instead we have been at 70 degrees with lots of sun.
Trough to the west... add 10-15 degrees to Snow_Wizzard's predicted highs!!
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I think Snow_Wizzard forgets it's summer...even with a big trough, it's tough to get temperatures below 65F.
In any event, I think this entire week will see temperatures range from 80-85F with plenty of sunshine. I'm not buying this cutoff low ejecting to the northeast.
TT-SEA,
If the weather trend continues, I guess you can say things "average" themselves out. BUT...the first two and half weeks of June were CRAP...bad weather for this time of year. I know June can be cool/cloudy but not what we've experienced the past 15-20 days. That's ridiculous.
Anthony
In any event, I think this entire week will see temperatures range from 80-85F with plenty of sunshine. I'm not buying this cutoff low ejecting to the northeast.
TT-SEA,
If the weather trend continues, I guess you can say things "average" themselves out. BUT...the first two and half weeks of June were CRAP...bad weather for this time of year. I know June can be cool/cloudy but not what we've experienced the past 15-20 days. That's ridiculous.
Anthony
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