UKMET 144hrs scary if this is the norm.....say in sept

[Anonymous]

Now this would be very bad if the 144 hr UKMET (a very good model-maybe the best along with euro) forecast became the norm for the season 2005 lets just put a hurricane where I did in this graphic Where would it go--my choice is not the righthand turn though Im not so sure....

[MWatkins]

In that example...unfortunately....if that were the steering layer...the psudo cyclone would already be past the point of recurvature and would be beneath the ridge axis on the backside...and would probably accelerate toward the coast in time.

Boooo.

MW

[Anonymous]

In that example...unfortunately....if that were the steering layer...the psudo cyclone would already be past the point of recurvature and would be beneath the ridge axis on the backside...and would probably accelerate toward the coast in time.

Boooo.

MW

Ok I agree but lets put the storm at 20N, 60W...Heading is NW...It is before approaching the split between the highs---then, would it go between the highs or go around the overall ridge and strike the US? I know they tend to turn if there is a weakness but how much of a weakness has to be present? is this map enough or do the highs have to be clearly seperated and not quite a ridge? Or would it be a close call?

[MWatkins]

In that example...unfortunately....if that were the steering layer...the psudo cyclone would already be past the point of recurvature and would be beneath the ridge axis on the backside...and would probably accelerate toward the coast in time.

Boooo.

MW

Ok I agree but lets put the storm at 20N, 60W....It is before approaching the split between the highs---then, would it go between the highs or go around the overall ridge and strike the US? I know they tend to turn if there is a weakness but how much of a weakness has to be present? is this map enough or do the highs have to be clearly seperated and not quite a ridge? Or would it be a close call?

I don't think it would have a chance to catch the weakness. It may move WNW for a bit but if that were the steering layer...it doesnt look...in the model...like there would be a SW influence to pull the cyclone up to the N then NE.

Even in that spot the next 24 to 48 hour motion would probably net out at 285 or even further west than that.

MW

[Brent]

Now this would be very bad if the 144 hr UKMET (a very good model-maybe the best along with euro) forecast became the norm for the season 2005 lets just put a hurricane where I did in this graphic Where would it go--my choice is not the righthand turn though Im not so sure....

Florida is screwed if that's the setup.

[Scorpion]

Scary..yet exciting. I can already feel the adreneline pump lol. I wonder if this is just an anomoly or will this pattern stay.

[rainydaze]

Yeah, another disasterous scenario for Florida!

I just hope it is not the second weekend in September because that's when we are meeting our family from Georgia in Disney for a few days....I'm already nervous enough about the timing, I don't need "hypothetical" hurricane monsters barreling in...LOL...

[cyclonaut]

It all about timing..The patterm might not be like that all the time but if it does look similar to that when the canes start rolling in there will be problems for Florida if not some other location in the U.S.

[Amanzi]

My birthday is September 9th... I never know whats going to blow the candle out on the cake.. or blow the whole darn cake away

[CFL]

Let's just hope the set-up changes between now and then. I assuming these patterns change on a weekly, if not daily, basis. Am I correct?

[Derek Ortt]

depending upon the mean flow, that weakness may be enough to suck a storm out to sea. It does not take much of a weakness to drag a storm up and out. Last year, Frances looked as if it may turn to the Carolinas, due to a narrow weakness, but the weakness only remained for about 6 hours, not enough to drag it north into Carolina

[kevin]

/.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Some people just need to learn to grow up.

Getting back onto topic.....it will be VERY interesting to see the setup when August 1 comes around.