NWS N.O. interesting discussion (TD in GOM?!?!?)

[Stormcenter]

This an excerpt from NWS N.O. June 18th 2005 evening discussion:

OUT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME TYPE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INVERTED TROUGH
SWINGING ALONG THE BASE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND THEN
PULLING INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASED GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THIS EASTERLY
FETCH...MAY ALSO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT INCREASED TIDE LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS THE
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THIS BECOMING MORE THAN A TROPICAL WAVE AND
EVOLVING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE GULF
TO OPEN BACK UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT MORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALLOWING THE GULF TO OPEN UP EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN FOR THE REGION WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

[Rainband]

With all due respect Houston forecasters hype every potential system. Why is that??

[Swimdude]

Hahahaha, why? Because - I just said it - we're overdue. WAYYYYY overdue. SO overdue, that even the experts are weary of severe weather. Tropical in nature, in particular.

[southerngale]

With all due respect Houston forecasters hype every potential system. Why is that??

I read it often...and I haven't noticed that. Sometimes they (and moreso Lake Charles) won't mention something that the others are. Besides, that was from the NWS New Orleans.

[dhweather]

Meanwhile the 18Z GFS takes something into Florida.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Anonymous]

Meanwhile the 18Z GFS takes something into Florida.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

NWS JAX must've seen that too from their Afternoon discussion...

GFS SOLN APPEARS OVERDONE WRT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WITH GFS SOLN THEN
INTENSIFYING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR...WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.

as well as the NWS tampa...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
MUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO BRING SOME
TROPICAL LOW UP OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
GIVEN THAT THERE IS SYSTEM CURRENTLY THERE. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
SHOW MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS...BUT 30 PERCENT/SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES WHERE HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST.

[cyclonaut]

NWS-Miami has a little something to say about this as well;

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS COMING TOGETHER ON FORECAST SOLUTION NEXT 48 HOURS INDICATING WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. TWO MAJOR PLAYERS IN SCENARIO WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REACH 2 INCHES OR BETTER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY DIMINISH. GFS STILL DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL SUNDAY THEN MOVING IT NORTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC AS BAROCLINICITY NOT PRESENT. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOT LIKELY EITHER WITH AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE REGION. WILL BOOST POPS TO 80 PERCENT MANY AREAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY EAST AS SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE. FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE TO MORE EASTERLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY SHIFTING HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LISTED BELOW SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

[ROCK]

With all due respect Houston forecasters hype every potential system. Why is that??

Hype?? not quite. In fact, NWS / Houston is not giving this thing a chance the last time I looked.

[tw861]

Umm, that AFD was out of the New Orleans NWSFO as the subject of the thread states, not Houston.

[MGC]

If I recall my hurricane history, Alicia formed on an old front stalled in the N GOM just south of Louisiana. While this is always a possiblity, it is a rare occurance. Another way would be a convective complex moving off the coast and developing like Danny did a few years ago. Me, I think the odds are greater for the continued area of disturbed weather in the Yucatan area to spin something up......MGC

[jeff]

The above AFD was from NWS New Orleans. Forecasters usually do not hype systems in their AFD's. They explain the possibilities and the uncertainity.

For example the statement from the New Orleans AFD suggesting the easterly wave or inverted trough COULD become a closed surface low is a valid statement. It is not hype, but a possibility that some guidance is hinting at for the Gulf next week.

[Rainband]

The above AFD was from NWS New Orleans. Forecasters usually do not hype systems in their AFD's. They explain the possibilities and the uncertainity.

For example the statement from the New Orleans AFD suggesting the easterly wave or inverted trough COULD become a closed surface low is a valid statement. It is not hype, but a possibility that some guidance is hinting at for the Gulf next week.

I know what your saying and I respect all mets Just seems like the discussions from there always seem to go with the glass half full, so to speak. Our NWS discussions here seem to be more to the point and cut and dry. Hope that makes sense.

[Anonymous]

The above AFD was from NWS New Orleans. Forecasters usually do not hype systems in their AFD's. They explain the possibilities and the uncertainity.

For example the statement from the New Orleans AFD suggesting the easterly wave or inverted trough COULD become a closed surface low is a valid statement. It is not hype, but a possibility that some guidance is hinting at for the Gulf next week.

Sounds a lot like JB

[jdray]

My grass is green enough thank you very much.


also way too long, barely have time to mow and when I do its raining......

[jeff]

The above AFD was from NWS New Orleans. Forecasters usually do not hype systems in their AFD's. They explain the possibilities and the uncertainity.

For example the statement from the New Orleans AFD suggesting the easterly wave or inverted trough COULD become a closed surface low is a valid statement. It is not hype, but a possibility that some guidance is hinting at for the Gulf next week.

Sounds a lot like JB

Are you saying what I wrote sounds like JB?

[Anonymous]

The above AFD was from NWS New Orleans. Forecasters usually do not hype systems in their AFD's. They explain the possibilities and the uncertainity.

For example the statement from the New Orleans AFD suggesting the easterly wave or inverted trough COULD become a closed surface low is a valid statement. It is not hype, but a possibility that some guidance is hinting at for the Gulf next week.

Sounds a lot like JB

Are you saying what I wrote sounds like JB?

No-not at all!
I was referring to some of the NWS discussions in tx/la-showing every possibillity.

[Dean4Storms]

No hype here, this is a good AFD. There are shiiping and oil interests out in the Gulf who rely on potential troubles in the Gulf. This scenario is one possibility right now albeit a slight one. Still, if you were leaving port tomorrow to head out into the Gulf it is good to know that the possibility exists.

[dhweather]

It is what it is - a discussion. The possibilities are listed and the met
in the discussion will typically list his/her beliefs after describing the
possibilities.