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W13
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#6141 Postby W13 » Sun Jun 19, 2005 2:18 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:By the way...I think I have decided to make a snow gun before next winter! A kid from Wisconsin told me about a forum for people who are obsessed with the things! Even the winters in Wisconsin have sucked lately. He told me they have only had snow one out of the past four Christmases. All it takes to make snow is a night with temps below freezing, and we get plenty of those....and the equipment of course. :D

For anyone interested, here is the link. I am telling you some of these people are out of their minds!

http://www.snowguns.com


I am doing the same, snow_wizzard! I have been a member at that site for going on two years and am just now putting into action some of the plans they have there, it is an awesome site! 8-)
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#6142 Postby snow_wizzard » Sun Jun 19, 2005 8:34 pm

That's awesome Justin! I saw a newspaper article about a guy who is doing it in Issaquah too. He had a bunch of snow in his backyard. That cold spell we had in January last winter would have been perfect. I have a feeling this snowgun thing is really going to catch on.

As for the current weather...I am quite astounded that the NWS is not saying a thing about thunderstorm potential tomorrow evening. The ETA has been consistent in showing some wildly low lifted index values tomorrow, in the -5 range! You couple that with fantastic CAPE and a look at what is going on in Oregon today, and you get an interesting picture. Strong southerly flow tomorrow could push the moisture this far north. If this materializes we could be looking at severe thunderstorm activity. Once again, this is only a possibility! Beyond tomorrow (or maybe Tuesday), it looks very cool for the remainder of the month. It could even be cool on Tuesday...we will see on that one.
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#6143 Postby andycottle » Sun Jun 19, 2005 8:40 pm

Mt.St.Helens blowing ash and smoke again? kinda looks like it... http://www.katu.com/cameras/vancouver.asp

-- Andy
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TT-SEA

#6144 Postby TT-SEA » Sun Jun 19, 2005 8:52 pm

Snow_Wizzard... if I told you on Thursday as the deep upper low moved in that our highs would be as follows:

Friday - 70
Saturday - 70
Sunday - 76

You would have fallen on the floor laughing. Yet... that is what happened.

We have not had a single drop of rain since the band on Thursday night.
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#6145 Postby snow_wizzard » Sun Jun 19, 2005 9:18 pm

TT...I am not surprised it is fairly warm right now. When a low is to our SW it is not favorable for cool weather. It has been apparent the low would be in that position for quite some time. I am a bit surprised that we have not gotten more activity rotating up from the south though. The subsequent troughs are not supposed to dig so deeply, so we are left with a cool scenario.

I am really getting excited about tomrrow. There is a band of severe T-Storms in northern Oregon right now, and everything is uspposed to be shifted northward tomorrow. One big difference is that our lifted index tomorrow is supposed to be much lower than what Oregon has today. this does bear watching! It is very interesting to note that the ETA showed nothing for northern Oregon this evening, even though they are getting clobbered. The NWS needs to open their eyes.
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#6146 Postby snow_wizzard » Sun Jun 19, 2005 9:38 pm

Wow!!

The new ETA is showing some incredible dynamics for Tuesday! Extremely strong onshore flow, strong southerly flow aloft, very high 850mb temps, in combination with very low lifted index. This could add up to one wild day. This run is showing widespread precip for Tuesday. WE could see sharply dropping temperatures during the day with this. We can only hope that this will end up being something extraordinary! With thunderstorms it is hard to have any degree of confidence in such a complex situation.

I continue to say, this year is proving itself to be something much out of the ordinary. That is a fact, not an opinion. :D
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TT-SEA

#6147 Postby TT-SEA » Sun Jun 19, 2005 9:44 pm

No matter what you say now... you will be sadly disappointed when the coming winter is warmer and drier than normal.

I have a feeling this will be the last straw for you... you will be moving far from Western Washington after this winter ends up the way I truly believe it will.
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#6148 Postby R-Dub » Sun Jun 19, 2005 9:49 pm

I think all the boaters have been waiting for a nice day, the lake was packed!! I was out in the thick of it also for the first time in a while.

We hit a high of 70 degrees
Currently 66 degrees with quite a stiff north wind off the lake that really picked up around 1:00PM. Got to the point of white caps, and between that and all the boats Lake Goodwin was like the ocean today :D Fun for jetskiing 8-)
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TT-SEA

#6149 Postby TT-SEA » Sun Jun 19, 2005 9:51 pm

The latest ETA show very little precipitation through Wednesday morning for Seattle proper.

You are once again being overly-dramatic.

Now that being said... I do think something will pop with all this warm air around and the model may be missing it.
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#6150 Postby AnthonyC » Sun Jun 19, 2005 10:08 pm

A beautiful day...had a high temperature of 77F with a nice, northerly breeze.

Tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of the week...although I would be aware of afternoon thunderstorms in the cascades and foothills. Cape values are around -3 and 850 mb heights are very high. Will any of these thunderstorms float into Western Washington? Probably not...with downslopping effect and no higher terrain to create lift, those thunderstorms usually fall apart within a few hours once they leave the mountains. Still something to watch.

How hot will it get tomorrow? I would say temperatures will range between 80-90F...coolest places along the San Juans/north interior...warmest along the cascade foothills and southwest interior.

And for the rest of the this week...I still hold firm with my prediction of sunny/warm weather. This low off the OR coast should continue to meander and then slowly fill as it moves west...with little impact on Western Washington. I still say Thursday and Friday will be around 80F.

Anthony
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#6151 Postby snow_wizzard » Sun Jun 19, 2005 10:35 pm

I don't know...the ETA looks pretty bad for a continuation of warm weather beyond early Tuesday. That onshore flow it's showing is intense. Also some very generous precip, at least north of Seattle. Even for Seattle it shows .10 to .20, but that could easily be underdone. There is something about the combination of factors it is showing for Tuesday that makes chills run down my spine, but that's just me!
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#6152 Postby andycottle » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:06 am

Hi guys! :D

From looking at the latest GFS and ETA this evening...it appears that there will be precip on tuesday with most of it occuring during the morning hours, then changing to showers by aftrenoon time. Cloud also see possible lowland scattered t-storms as NGM and ETA both show lifted indices at about -3C/KM and AVN having CAPE at a fairly high level and between the 400 - 700 J/KG level. And also looks like we`ll have light southerly flow at 850MB with a temp of about +12C. 500MB heights are also pretty high and at near 576DM with even stronger flow out the south at near 35kts. So for right now...and asuming we have some sunbreaks during that time...airmass should be good to go at kicking of some t-storm activity. Since this is still about a day way...we`ll see how things go.

-- Andy
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TT-SEA

#6153 Postby TT-SEA » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:36 am

SW - based on that I expect an absolutely crazy day on Tuesday.

"chills down your spine"?????

So... flash flooding, baseball sized hail, thousands of lightning strikes, tornadoes?? Followed by an amazing cold front with snow and high winds???

Take a deep breath dude.

This is why nobody believes you when you say this winter will be unbelievably cold and snowy!! :D

Are you still 100% sure that we will not see 70 degrees after Tuesday through next weekend???

I bet we will.
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#6154 Postby snow_wizzard » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:46 am

No doubt about it...the period from tomorrow evening to Wednesday morning has my undivided attention! The NGM, ETA, and GFS all have slightly different timing and details, but all agree a BIG chance is in the cards. All models show Seattle receiving at least .20 from this event. There is little question, however, that this could produce much larger amounts. I would be elated if we could come up with another daily rainfall record.

At this point, it would appear that a monthly total of 2.5 inches or more is quite likely. The GFS shows another decent rain around day 7. The wet spring / early summer continues!
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TT-SEA

#6155 Postby TT-SEA » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:50 am

For the record....

I THINK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER AROUND THE SEATTLE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Even more than the ETA shows.

There is also a chance of getting nothing more than a few showers.
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TT-SEA

#6156 Postby TT-SEA » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:52 am

Also...

WE COULD END UP WITH 8 INCHES OF RAIN FOR JUNE AND I STILL DO NOT BELIEVE IT MEANS A COLD WINTER.

WE ARE PLAYING BY NEW RULES.
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#6157 Postby snow_wizzard » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:53 am

My such short memories. It seems to me that everyone, including the NWS was writing off a good rain from the low that dropped down last week. Then at the last minute, we ended up with over half an inch and a new daily record. Last night I said the NWS was crazy for saying every day this week would be in the 70s and I stand by that. I never said there could not be a 70 degree reading at some point after Tuesday. Every day...No Way. It is quite possible we will not see 70 again after Tuesday for quite some time though. If I told you it would not hit 70 for the entire first half of June you would have said...there you go again. Well, as it turns out, it did not hit 70 in the first half!

I do not care if people believe what I am saying about this winter or not. The proof will be there for all to see soon enough! :D
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TT-SEA

#6158 Postby TT-SEA » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:53 am

Just had to state those facts emphatically.

I do not want to be misquoted.
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TT-SEA

#6159 Postby TT-SEA » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:56 am

No... I expected 60's for the first half of June.

60's are normal for the first half of June.

I have thought that June was going to be below normal for a LONG time.
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#6160 Postby snow_wizzard » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:00 am

TT...That is a whole different matter, if you think the rules have changed. We will not know for sure until this all plays out. If we go for another 5 years and still can't put a cold winter together even with good signs, I will admit you are right about everything you have been saying. We are in a crucial period now, where it appears we are changing climate phases again.

I do remember that you thought the wet June theory had some merit, now that it looks like the wet June will happen you are backing out. :eek:
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