Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #6161 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:02 am

Very true...60s are normal for the first half of June...BUT...it is rare to not hit 70 on even one day for the first half of the month.

TT-SEA · #6162 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:06 am

A wet June has historically pointed to a colder winter.

But I believe after further study... this year will not follow suit. Regardless of how much rain we get between now and June 30th.

TT-SEA · #6163 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:07 am

Looks like the marine push may happen a little faster now... this means cooler weather but also will greatly reduce the threat of anything exciting in the immediate Seattle area for Tuesday.

Marine air is MUCH more stable.

andycottle · #6164 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:59 am

From looking at the latest models this morning, looks like the ETA and MM5 have the idea of spreading precip into our area during the morning hours of wednesday and then changing to showers by afternoon time. However, GFS wants to have precip by tomorrow morning, but I really don`t see that happening as onshore flow wont really be coming in till sometime real late tuesday night.

EDIT: Even the NGM and MRF are showing some pretty good precip by wednesday of this week.
-- Andy

snow_wizzard · #6165 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 10:26 am

Normally a marine push does squelch thunderstorm activity, but this time the ETA insists the airmass will remian very unstable through the first half, if not all, of tomorrow. The ETA is showing explosive development of showers and thundershower tomorrow morning. This could be good!

weather girl · #6166 Postby **weather girl** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 10:45 am

So, Andy, you're thinking heat low here in a couple of weeks? Ughh..... Does it really look like it? I think the troughs that have been slipping down will flatten out, and that will warm things up. Hopefully, no heat low, but I think Phoenix will hit 111 today, so it wouldn't surprise me if we got one.

Officially in Salem, we are at 1.59 inches of rain this month. That's just slightly above normal, but there's still 10 days to go. I expect a little more rain over the next 3-4 days, and it looks like next weekend will be wet as well.

We're supposed to reach a high of 81 today. And OMG, it's humid.

Happy Summer Solstice!

TT-SEA · #6167 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 10:59 am

Well... the ETA-MM5 does not show much over the Seattle area tomorrow.

Some development in the Cascades... and then a band moving quickly north of Seattle. R-Dub... you may be in a better location for this one.

You need to look at the MM5 runs for an event like this.

snow_wizzard · #6168 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:18 am

The only bet I will place on this is that Seattle will receive somewhere between a tenth and 1.5 inches...lol

This is one we will not know until it happens. I notice the GFS has completely missed the boat on this. It is showing no convective activity developing anywhere from this. There is almost zero chance of that. The NGM shows Seattle getting somewhere .40 inches of rain. I would say there is a reasonable chance of some respectable rain. If a line of thunderstorms develops like the NWS is expecting, there is no way it will mysteriously miss Seattle. There is a chance of dry lightning too. Overall, I would say a 60% chance that we get hit.

TT-SEA · #6169 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:24 am

I agree.

Sea-Tac will get SOMETHING. It will be tough to forecast.

In the meantime... I will enjoy the 5th consecutive day above normal.

Today is looking quite warm indeed.

snow_wizzard · #6170 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:32 am

Enjoy the warmth while you can. Tomorrow it drops to normal, and then below for the remainder of the month. The 12z run looks very cool!

It looks like even the ETA MM5 is showing about .20 - .25 from this event. It also inducates more about to move in after the end of the period it shows.

TT-SEA · #6171 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:39 am

Ohhhh..... I don't know.

I believe Friday will be above normal ahead of a weak trough. And if the upper low cuts off to the south again we could have another repeat of this weekend.

I think we will have more days above normal after tomorrow!!

You get burned by this time and time again.

snow_wizzard · #6172 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:46 pm

We will see. It will take the surface temps a while to recover from the cool air mass that is going to move in tomorrow and tomorrow night. I would sya it is possible we could be close to normal Thursday and maybe SLIGHTLY above on Friday. After that we have an awesome trough over us. It becomes more unlikely as we get deeper into the season that things will trakc south of us. If that next trough is a dead hit, we could see our most below normal temps of the month. It is interesting to note that the PNA forecast shows us going significantly negative for the first time in three month, and that is with the new formula they are using.

Tomorrow could be pretty cool with that screaming onshore flow and all of the showers. The NWS is obviously intrigued with this scenario. All of the talk of great CAPE, rock bottom lifted index, and favorable shear has me ready for action!

snow_wizzard · #6173 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 3:21 pm

It has begun! Some clouds exploding over SE Lewis County. The trajectory of the flow pattern gives these a decent chance of dirfting toward the Seattle area.

Edit: The clouds do not seem to be developing to any great extent. They are spreading, but not getting any height to them.

snow_wizzard · #6174 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 5:54 pm

It seems absolutley unreal that we ended up with a cap in this situation. Every other varibale is so perfect for us to get thunderstorms. Oh well, at least much cooler temps and showers are still in the cards for tomorrow. It is hard to be disappointed with the amazing trough the GFS is showing for much of the remainder of the month. I am hungry to see one of those wicked all night thunderstorms though.

andycottle · #6175 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:24 pm

Snow wizzard....from this site http://www.weather.unisys.com/upper_air ... _KUIL.html

it appears that there`s a CAP at about the 5,000ft level. Am I reading correctly?:) Hope so..

TT-SEA · #6176 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:52 pm

Well... the latest ETA shows tomorrow may very well be a bust once again.

And then when the trough moves in on Tuesday night all the action is way north of Seattle.

SW - I think that "chill down your spine" was a false alarm!!

If you want real thunderstorms... Minneapolis was the place to be today.

Sorry dude.

andycottle · #6177 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:15 pm

Am still thinking there will be at least a decent shower threat as ETA, AVN, NGM seem to be the wettest of the three as a weak impulse comes across our area during the day wednesday. Though, GFS is being a bit more drier for that time frame. It also appears that airmass should still remain weakly unstable for maybe some t-storms over the cascades. Thursday - Saturday is looking dry, but wouldn`t rule out possible showers as a minor trough swings down from the northern most B.C coast line and continues that track downward and then clipping the northern interior areas of Western, Wa. So should see mainly cloudy skies and maybe sun at times during this period. Yet another and deeper trough of low pressure is hot on it`s heels, to which this area of low pressure should be our weather maker for late saturday into sunday time frame.

Temp wise....MOS for Seattle has high temps in the upper 60`s to very low 70`s during the Wed - Monday period with CLIMO being 72/53 for this time frame.

-- Andy

andycottle · #6178 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:13 am

Good morning all....and happy first day of summer! Currently our skies are partly cloudy with a temp of 60 and DP 57. Pretty nice outside for sure!

Latest GFS and ETA still showing showers over us for tomorrow, but both models have most the rain action too the north of the puget sound region. AVN, NGM models also having roughly the same idea. At any rate, we will likely see showers tomorrow, though it wont be a complete wash out by any means. Looks like a weak area of high pressure build back in for the Thursday - Saturday time frame. So should see some partly cloudy skies during this period. Yet another trough for sunday digs down through our area, but doesn`t appear to be much shower activity as shown over the past couple days. So will go with at least a few showers for this day and maybe a scattered/isolated t-Storm as lifted indices are around -3C.

-- Andy

R-Dub · #6179 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:53 pm

Sure has that thunderstorm feel to the air today, the sky has odd unstable look to it also. Only a sprinkle so far, but the radar looks to be really lighting up by the minute.

Currently Cloudy with a temp of 75 degrees

R-Dub · #6180 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 4:56 pm

Nice clap of thunder just happened over the house!!! Will take some pics of the clouds and post them tonight.

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