Tropical Depression Beatriz,It has dissipated

#21 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 5:57 pm

I could see this invest becoming Beatriz.....but I don't see this becoming a hurricane right now. Just not impressed enough with its organization about its chances of getting THAT strong. However, if the shear remains lower and it organizes better, it may surprise me.

-Andrew92

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:00 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP912005) ON 20050621 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050621 0000 050621 1200 050622 0000 050622 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 100.7W 13.9N 102.9W 14.6N 105.7W 15.4N 108.9W
BAMM 13.3N 100.7W 13.7N 102.6W 14.3N 105.2W 15.1N 108.2W
LBAR 13.3N 100.7W 13.7N 102.7W 14.7N 105.2W 15.9N 107.8W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050623 0000 050624 0000 050625 0000 050626 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 112.3W 16.4N 119.1W 16.6N 124.2W 16.5N 127.3W
BAMM 15.9N 111.5W 17.0N 117.9W 17.6N 122.2W 17.8N 124.4W
LBAR 17.3N 110.7W 20.6N 114.9W 23.4N 116.8W 25.4N 115.3W
SHIP 48KTS 44KTS 32KTS 23KTS
DSHP 48KTS 44KTS 32KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 100.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 99.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 97.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00 UTC model guidance.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #23 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:05 pm

Poof

Its not developing now...Darn it!

Scorpion · #24 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:25 pm

Wow, looks like junk tonight. Maybe it will regroup better.

Website · #25 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:12 pm

I watched the TWC tropical update and was like "What happened?" :lol:

#26 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:35 pm

It's got some shear to deal with, and I expect it will re-fire tomorrow
and probably make it to TD status.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #27 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 10:53 pm

Gfdl track model

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91E

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 99.1 270./ 6.0

6 13.1 99.5 226./ 5.6

12 13.5 100.7 290./12.2

18 13.6 102.0 274./12.9

24 13.8 103.3 276./12.3

30 14.0 104.2 288./ 9.0

36 14.5 105.4 288./12.9

42 14.9 106.7 287./13.1

48 15.2 107.8 286./11.3

54 15.6 108.9 289./11.1

60 15.9 109.6 298./ 7.0

66 16.2 110.6 286./10.2

72 16.5 111.1 300./ 5.4

78 16.9 111.4 317./ 5.3

84 17.3 111.7 333./ 4.9

90 17.6 111.9 328./ 3.6

96 17.8 111.9 342./ 2.0

102 17.8 112.0 270./ .4

108 17.8 111.8 99./ 1.2

114 17.6 111.5 114./ 3.4

120 17.4 111.1 122./ 4.4

126 17.1 110.7 130./ 5.2

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #28 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:53 am

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91E

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.4 101.1 270./ 8.0

6 12.8 101.6 219./ 8.1

12 12.9 102.9 276./12.4

18 12.9 103.8 272./ 9.4

24 13.0 105.0 274./11.6

30 13.0 105.8 268./ 7.6

36 13.4 106.8 291./10.7

42 13.8 107.8 293./ 9.8

48 14.1 108.7 286./ 9.7

54 14.2 109.5 281./ 7.9

60 14.6 110.3 293./ 8.1

66 14.9 111.1 295./ 8.7

72 15.4 111.8 301./ 7.7

78 15.8 112.3 307./ 7.0

84 16.3 112.7 325./ 5.9

90 16.6 113.0 319./ 4.8

96 16.9 113.3 307./ 3.9

102 17.0 113.6 301./ 2.8

108 17.1 113.6 346./ .8

114 17.1 113.6 180./ .5

120 16.9 113.7 200./ 2.3

126 16.6 113.8 201./ 2.2

000

WTNT80 EGRR 210536

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.06.2005

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.8N 98.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.06.2005 13.8N 98.4W WEAK

12UTC 21.06.2005 14.4N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.06.2005 13.1N 103.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.06.2005 13.7N 106.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.06.2005 13.9N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.06.2005 14.4N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.06.2005 14.5N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.06.2005 14.7N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.06.2005 15.3N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK :roll:

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 8:42 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP912005) ON 20050621 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050621 1200 050622 0000 050622 1200 050623 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 101.8W 14.4N 104.6W 15.6N 107.9W 17.0N 111.3W
BAMM 13.3N 101.8W 14.4N 104.3W 15.6N 107.5W 17.0N 111.0W
LBAR 13.3N 101.8W 13.8N 103.8W 15.1N 106.4W 16.3N 109.2W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050623 1200 050624 1200 050625 1200 050626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 114.8W 19.4N 120.3W 21.2N 122.2W 24.3N 120.2W
BAMM 17.9N 114.7W 19.4N 120.4W 20.6N 122.9W 22.3N 122.2W
LBAR 18.0N 111.8W 20.9N 115.7W 23.5N 116.8W 24.7N 115.5W
SHIP 41KTS 35KTS 22KTS 0KTS
DSHP 41KTS 35KTS 22KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 101.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 100.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 99.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00 UTC model plots for 91E.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 9:57 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 211451Z JUN 05//
WTPN21 PGTW 211500
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N7 100.7W8 TO 13.8N2
106.6W3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 211200Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.3N7 101.8W0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221500Z0.

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 91E.

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 11:46 am

...Special features...
An area of low pres with estimated center near 13.5n103w at 1008
mb is moving WNW about 10 kt. The system is now called a
tropical disturbance because of convection associated with the
system has lasted a continuous 24 hours. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 120 nm over the south semicircle and
a larger area of scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 240 nm over the NE semicirlce. The system is currently
under an upper anticyclone that appears to be moving W as
well...and upper level outflow is observed over the system.

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 11:59 am

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:00 am PDT on June 21, 2005

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude.

The area of disturbed weather centered about 250 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco continues to become better organized as
it moves westward at about 10 mph. A tropical depression appears to
be forming...and if this development trend continues...advisories
will likely be initiated later today or tonight.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin
$$

It seems that this afternoon or evening we will have TD-2E.

#33 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:09 pm

Well, the EPAC is about to score, and go up 2-1.

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 1:28 pm

21/1745 UTC 13.5N 103.2W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

Things are comming together this afternoon.Banding,Outflow good,Less shear and center not too displaced from main convection.

Normandy · #35 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 1:38 pm

Yep....thats definitely gonna become Beatriz.

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 2:10 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NONAME.

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 2:12 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (EP022005) ON 20050621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050621 1800 050622 0600 050622 1800 050623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 101.7W 14.6N 104.8W 15.9N 108.2W 17.1N 111.6W
BAMM 13.6N 101.7W 14.5N 104.4W 15.8N 107.8W 17.1N 111.3W
LBAR 13.6N 101.7W 14.4N 103.8W 15.6N 106.5W 17.4N 109.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050623 1800 050624 1800 050625 1800 050626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 115.0W 19.0N 120.7W 20.3N 123.0W 23.0N 120.4W
BAMM 18.0N 114.9W 19.1N 120.8W 20.2N 123.4W 21.6N 122.2W
LBAR 18.8N 111.9W 21.4N 115.4W 23.3N 116.4W 26.0N 114.1W
SHIP 47KTS 39KTS 26KTS 0KTS
DSHP 47KTS 39KTS 26KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 101.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 100.1W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 99.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 18:00 Models for TD2-E

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #38 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 2:13 pm

The official 18Z position for Tropical Depression Two-E is 13.6N 101.7W or 255mi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico. 02E is moving WNW at 9 mph. 1-min avg sustained winds are 30 mph.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #39 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 2:26 pm

It looks like it is starting to wrap some. I expect by the 8pm pst Advisorie this maybe upgraded to tropcal storm if it keeps it up.

James · #40 Postby **James** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 3:07 pm

Well this will be something interesting to track over the next few days. No storm-free June like last year.

Tropical Depression Beatriz,It has dissipated

Who is online